The run home: the comp gets serious
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James Buchanan
Trevor Allan (34)
Just doing some calculations...
Its entirely possible that we could see 3 Aussie teams in the top 4 this week.
If:
The Tahs beat the Crusaders (and do not let them get a bonus point)
And
The Reds and Brumbies both win with 5 points.
And
The Blues do the Stormers (and do not let them get 2 bonus points)
Then we should see a Bulls/Tahs/Reds/Brumbies top 4. (with tahs on top if they somehow get 4 tries against the saders)
It will only last 1 week, but it would be quite pretty.
Its entirely possible that we could see 3 Aussie teams in the top 4 this week.
If:
The Tahs beat the Crusaders (and do not let them get a bonus point)
And
The Reds and Brumbies both win with 5 points.
And
The Blues do the Stormers (and do not let them get 2 bonus points)
Then we should see a Bulls/Tahs/Reds/Brumbies top 4. (with tahs on top if they somehow get 4 tries against the saders)
It will only last 1 week, but it would be quite pretty.
wobbly
Fred Wood (13)
I suspect the Blues have blown their season today but their draw makes it still possible for them (Force/Sharks/Cheetahs/Lions/CHIEFS).
But the Stormers performance has been highly impressive and dispells any doubts for me that they're serious title threats.
Go Tahs! Looking at the Crusaders run home, if they take no points tonight it's shaping as likely that no kiwi teams will make the finals.
Loving this years Super 14.
But the Stormers performance has been highly impressive and dispells any doubts for me that they're serious title threats.
Go Tahs! Looking at the Crusaders run home, if they take no points tonight it's shaping as likely that no kiwi teams will make the finals.
Loving this years Super 14.
James Buchanan
Trevor Allan (34)
Yep, damned New Zealanders spoiling my dreams.
We still could see 2 teams in the top 4 at the very least this week.
Both Reds and Brumbies have a very decent chance of racking up 5 points on their respective opposition.
It all largely comes down to what happens in the Tahs v Saders match.
Also, despite earlier comments that the Reds will lose to the Bulls in QLD, history tends to suggest this won't happen. In recent history, the Reds have always won their first game back from tour. If this comes to pass, they're hardly out of it.
We still could see 2 teams in the top 4 at the very least this week.
Both Reds and Brumbies have a very decent chance of racking up 5 points on their respective opposition.
It all largely comes down to what happens in the Tahs v Saders match.
Also, despite earlier comments that the Reds will lose to the Bulls in QLD, history tends to suggest this won't happen. In recent history, the Reds have always won their first game back from tour. If this comes to pass, they're hardly out of it.
James Buchanan
Trevor Allan (34)
That's twice this weekend a NZ team has spoiled my dream 
wobbly
Fred Wood (13)
As it stands:
Bulls 33
Saders 29
Tahs 29 (Bye to come)
Stormers 29
Brumbies 26
Reds ? (21 > 26)
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Chiefs and Blues not convincing but NOT dead yet as they have easier runs home.
Looking at the draw, I'm now predicting:
1. Bulls on about 52-55
2/3. Stormers / Brumbies on about 45-47
4. Saders, Tahs or Reds on about 42-43
Bulls 33
Saders 29
Tahs 29 (Bye to come)
Stormers 29
Brumbies 26
Reds ? (21 > 26)
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Chiefs and Blues not convincing but NOT dead yet as they have easier runs home.
Looking at the draw, I'm now predicting:
1. Bulls on about 52-55
2/3. Stormers / Brumbies on about 45-47
4. Saders, Tahs or Reds on about 42-43
wobbly
Fred Wood (13)
Analysing the games remaining I reckon the best we can hope for is 1 Oz team in the semi's at 3rd or 4th, two more just missing at 5th to 7th and the Force to win a few more and lift to about 9th.
At least that's showing fairly even distribution of talent (considering Force injuries this season).
At least that's showing fairly even distribution of talent (considering Force injuries this season).
PaarlBok
Rod McCall (65)
Bliksem the Stormers pissed the dreams wet, sad they missed that bonus point 4th try by a ball hair, mind you I,d took a one point win any day beforehand. Think the Stormers and Brutes will be difficult to stop next week and one more tour win from both and they will run in handsomely from this position.
PaarlBok
Rod McCall (65)
Great comeback by our two front runners. They big aim for the Bulls & Stormers is to be in a position to fight it out for the top spot come round 14 on Newlands. In the meantime they cant let the Reds and specially the Saders get wins against them at home. They have to take them out one by one, game by game and maybe give the Sharks a change to sneak into semi to give us three of the top four. That will be fantastic. Meantime my team the Stormers is on their way to maybe do a Kiwi Slam. 3 down 2 to go. Dont think many teams have achieve this in history.
Lee Grant
John Eales (66)
After next weekend's round everybody would have had their bye; so the many versions of more realistic tables than the official table won't be needed. But there is time for one more.
Points Lost method
Every team has a possibility of getting 5 points in a game. The teams who have played 9 games could have earned 45 points by now, and those that have played 8 games could have earned 40.
Thus, compared to the official table, the log is better expressed in terms of points lost compared to the maximum number of points possible, with the team that has lost least at the top.
As follows:
Team PL
Bulls 7
Crusaders 11
Stormers12
Reds14
Brumbies14
Waratahs16
Chiefs19
Blues20
Hurricanes22
Sharks24
Force30
Cheetahs31
Highlanders34
Lions36
Not taken into account are the standard of opponents played against, or yet to be played against; and the venues where games have been, or will be, played at. Nor is the fact that teams that have played more games have their points on the board, considered. But it is a better measure of quality than the standard table.
At the moment I think that 3 Oz teams will be gunning for 4th spot; but there is still a lot of rugby water to go under the bridge before then.
Points Lost method
Every team has a possibility of getting 5 points in a game. The teams who have played 9 games could have earned 45 points by now, and those that have played 8 games could have earned 40.
Thus, compared to the official table, the log is better expressed in terms of points lost compared to the maximum number of points possible, with the team that has lost least at the top.
As follows:
Team PL
Bulls 7
Crusaders 11
Stormers12
Reds14
Brumbies14
Waratahs16
Chiefs19
Blues20
Hurricanes22
Sharks24
Force30
Cheetahs31
Highlanders34
Lions36
Not taken into account are the standard of opponents played against, or yet to be played against; and the venues where games have been, or will be, played at. Nor is the fact that teams that have played more games have their points on the board, considered. But it is a better measure of quality than the standard table.
At the moment I think that 3 Oz teams will be gunning for 4th spot; but there is still a lot of rugby water to go under the bridge before then.
James Buchanan
Trevor Allan (34)
Okay, given how poorly my last prediction went, I'm a little hesitant at making another one. But, thinking about the fixture on current form.
But, looking at the upcoming games for the Waratahs, I can't see them losing another game. Reds have it somewhat tougher with Reds v Stormers and Hurricanes v Reds as possible games they might drop. I think that if they keep up their current form they're a red hot chance to win them though.
Looking at the Bulls and the Stormers, I'm inclined to think that the Bulls will win every game except the last one against the Stormers. I think the Stormers will win every game except for perhaps the one against the Reds.
That leaves the Crusaders. I don't think their tour will be pretty. I think they'll probably drop at least two games, maybe three. The game versus the Brumbies is a big test more of if the Brumbies have recovered their mojo by that point. Especially since its an away game after a tour, it could go badly.
In considering all this, I think there's a very real chance of a Bulls, Stormers, Tahs, Reds top 4 this year, listed in no particular order.
But, looking at the upcoming games for the Waratahs, I can't see them losing another game. Reds have it somewhat tougher with Reds v Stormers and Hurricanes v Reds as possible games they might drop. I think that if they keep up their current form they're a red hot chance to win them though.
Looking at the Bulls and the Stormers, I'm inclined to think that the Bulls will win every game except the last one against the Stormers. I think the Stormers will win every game except for perhaps the one against the Reds.
That leaves the Crusaders. I don't think their tour will be pretty. I think they'll probably drop at least two games, maybe three. The game versus the Brumbies is a big test more of if the Brumbies have recovered their mojo by that point. Especially since its an away game after a tour, it could go badly.
In considering all this, I think there's a very real chance of a Bulls, Stormers, Tahs, Reds top 4 this year, listed in no particular order.
waratahjesus
Greg Davis (50)
i would like to agree ont he tahs not losing another game, but the tahs without Palu are a very different team than with. I think a couple of those games are touch and go.
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