The run home: the comp gets serious

[Biffo]

There is a factor at play that noone seems to have noticed. The Bulls and Stormers, in addition to yet meeting each other, both have to play the resurgent Sharks. The Sharks will be desperate to end their season well by knocking over those two. I'd fancy the Sharks to beat at least one of them.

 

[Ruggo]

There is a factor at play that noone seems to have noticed. The Bulls and Stormers, in addition to yet meeting each other, both have to play the resurgent Sharks. The Sharks will be desperate to end their season well by knocking over those two. I'd fancy the Sharks to beat at least one of them.

Throw the Saders in the mix and it gets even more interesting.

 

[Blue]

I expect the Bulls to lose two more games and scrape intp the semi's in third or fourth.

Steyn is totally out of touch and they have a serious issue at 13.

Stormers
Saders
Reds
Bulls

There you go.

Stormers Saders final at Newlands.

 

[PaarlBok]

Blue thanks for giving us the kiss of death.1

Biff the sharks were lucky to beat the Lions, the Brutes will nail them in the Ring and the Stormers sure have their nr lately.

The Stormers next two games will deicde their position.

 

[Lindommer]

Ten weeks down four to go. I'm now going to add the Chiefs to my earlier list of the Canes, Sharks, Clan, Force and the two pussy cats who won't feature in the finals. It's mathematically possible for the Canes, Sharks and Chiefs to make them but I just can't see any of them jumping over all of the Reds, Tahs, Brumbies AND Blues. Let me eat humble pie here and now and plead insanity for my earlier prediction the Saders and Stormers would miss out and the Chiefs and Blues get in. Of course, no sensible person placed their bets on my urging. I hope.

The tables exercise is now needless, there's only one to consider, the official SANZAR table. The run home for remaining finals' contenders and the four spoilers (Canes, Sharks, Chiefs and Force) is as follows:

Saders Force/STORMERS/BULLS/BRUMBIES
Bulls Lions/Sharks/SADERS/STORMERS
Stormers REDS/SADERS/Sharks/BULLS
Reds STORMERS/PONIES/Canes/Clan
Tahs BRUMBIES/Clan/Chiefs/Canes
Brumbies TAHS/REDS/Clan/SADERS
Blues Sharks/Cheetahs/Lions/Chiefs
Canes Clan/Chiefs/REDS/TAHS
Sharks BLUES/BULLS/STORMERS/Force
Chiefs Cheetahs/Canes/TAHS/BLUES
Force SADERS/Lions/Cheetahs/Sharks


I still rate the Force as spoilers as their last home game, against the Saders, could be the match which decides the shape of the finals. But the most salient point is still the fact the top three sides play each other in the last three rounds. Added to that is the recent form of the Sharks on their return to RSA, and they play three finals contenders in the next three weeks. If they beat the Blues in Durban they're out, and a win against either of the Stormers or Bulls may let another Aussie team into the top four.

The Tahs and Blues would seem to have the easiest roads home. My prediction: Stormers, Bulls, Tahs and Blues, in that order.

Legend: home games in black, away games in red, finals contenders in CAPITALS.

 

[James Buchanan]

The Tahs and Blues would seem to have the easiest roads home. My prediction: Stormers, Bulls, Tahs and Blues, in that order.

I'm not sold on the Blues. Even though they are playing the three 'weaker' SA teams on tour, I'm of the opinion that disciplined gameplans are what wins when you're over in South Africa - which hasn't really been the Blues strength this year. Further, the Blues forward pack has come up short on a number of occasions this year and if any of the the SA teams teams take advantage of that, then I reckon they're a chance to take them; Sharks are of course the best chance, but I wouldn't put it past either the Cheetahs or Lions to give them a good scare. Hence how I came to my Stormers, Bulls, Tahs, Reds conclusion.

 

[PaarlBok]

The Sharks are still init, so the Blues wont get past them. The Brutes will kill the Sharks ,making them easy target for the Stormers.

 

[mark_s]

I think the current top 3 will still be there, the order will depend on the outcome of the head to heads but I think they will win enough of the other games to stay in the finals race. I have a bad feeling that Aus teams are going to spoil each other and the blues will come through into the finals.

 

[Ruggo]

Does anybody think that dodgy Ref call that got the Bulls that last try against the Reds and <7 bonus point will come back to screw sombody's season?

It would be a bloody shame but it is that tight its highly possible.

 

[Scotty]

who knows, but there will be around 100 of those instances that you could say 'what could have happened'

 

[chriscullen]

Ive just hopped into the hot tub time machine and the top 4 will be Stormers,Crusaders,Blues,Reds. The Bulls to collapse and fail to win another game.

 

[matty_k]

i thought that only went backwards.

 

[waratahjesus]

WJ, After last night you might want to modify the by-line under your avatar.

NSW is better than QLD, its fact, i was there, i was smiling and the Qld fans were angry, upset and sad. so therefore they suck

 

[chief]

WJ, After last night you might want to modify the by-line under your avatar.

NSW is better than QLD, its fact, i was there, i was smiling and the Qld fans were angry, upset and sad. so therefore they suck

Your logic is almost as flawed as the QLD GPS.

 

[Hawko]

I think one more week will make everything much clearer:

1. The Crusaders MUST beat the Force next week otherwise I think they'll miss the four. The Force seem to play well against them because the Crusaders don't attack them like the Blues did. Force are at home and the Crusaders dream run with the refs must end soon. Crusaders will lose at least one of the two SA games, probably both. Even if they beat the Force, the home game against the Brumbies after W->E travel will probably determine if they make the four at all. Given the Brumbies poor form though, the Saders will win the last and be fourth or fifth. I hope fifth to make up for last year.

2. Bulls will get 5 next week, probably 4 the next two weeks and then lose the last in a titanic struggle away.

3. Stormers vs Reds will determine both teams final positions. If the Reds can knock over the Stormers then they can top the table. But I think they will find the Stormers a much harder nut to crack than the Bulls, because they play a different style. A loss to be followed by three wins and a top four place.

4. Waratahs vs Brumbies. The Brumbies are playing very poorly and you would think that this was a gimme. But like the Reds, the Brumbies are always up for the Tahs game. Cliffy out, Ben probably out, TPN dicey - the big forward attacking weapons are all gone or weakened. The replacements are not the same dynamic. If the Tahs can eke out a win then I reckon they'll make third on the table. If they don't, its likely they'll miss the four and the Crusaders will sneak in.

5. Sharks can't make the four, the Bulls or Stormers will do them and they can't afford to drop a game. But they still have hope to motivate them so the Blues are in for a mighty struggle. That said, they only just beat the Lions. They do have the type of game to upset the Blues, who are inconsistent - great one week, average the next. This week is a down week, I expect their run to end.

So that makes my prediction Stormers 1, Bulls 2, Waratahs 3, Reds 4. I think there's a lot of imponderables in the mix at the moment but after this weekend I reckon it will be much clearer.

 

[Lee Grant]

Does anybody think that dodgy Ref call that got the Bulls that last try against the Reds and <7 bonus point will come back to screw sombody's season?

It would be a bloody shame but it is that tight its highly possible.

Karma - Higginbotham was just offside before his try when Genia kicked the ball. Deserved a try though.

 

[Cutter]

I think one more week will make everything much clearer:

1. The Crusaders MUST beat the Force next week otherwise I think they'll miss the four. The Force seem to play well against them because the Crusaders don't attack them like the Blues did. Force are at home and the Crusaders dream run with the refs must end soon. Crusaders will lose at least one of the two SA games, probably both. Even if they beat the Force, the home game against the Brumbies after W->E travel will probably determine if they make the four at all. Given the Brumbies poor form though, the Saders will win the last and be fourth or fifth. I hope fifth to make up for last year.

2. Bulls will get 5 next week, probably 4 the next two weeks and then lose the last in a titanic struggle away.

3. Stormers vs Reds will determine both teams final positions. If the Reds can knock over the Stormers then they can top the table. But I think they will find the Stormers a much harder nut to crack than the Bulls, because they play a different style. A loss to be followed by three wins and a top four place.

4. Waratahs vs Brumbies. The Brumbies are playing very poorly and you would think that this was a gimme. But like the Reds, the Brumbies are always up for the Tahs game. Cliffy out, Ben probably out, TPN dicey - the big forward attacking weapons are all gone or weakened. The replacements are not the same dynamic. If the Tahs can eke out a win then I reckon they'll make third on the table. If they don't, its likely they'll miss the four and the Crusaders will sneak in.

5. Sharks can't make the four, the Bulls or Stormers will do them and they can't afford to drop a game. But they still have hope to motivate them so the Blues are in for a mighty struggle. That said, they only just beat the Lions. They do have the type of game to upset the Blues, who are inconsistent - great one week, average the next. This week is a down week, I expect their run to end.

So that makes my prediction Stormers 1, Bulls 2, Waratahs 3, Reds 4. I think there's a lot of imponderables in the mix at the moment but after this weekend I reckon it will be much clearer.

Good post. Not sure I agree with all of it. I like the word "imponderables".

 

[waratahjesus]

WJ, After last night you might want to modify the by-line under your avatar.

NSW is better than QLD, its fact, i was there, i was smiling and the Qld fans were angry, upset and sad. so therefore they suck

Your logic is almost as flawed as the QLD GPS.

QLD GPS = GAMES PLAYED SUCKING
the Tahs beat the Reds and will finish higher on the table meaning there better than them. Its a fact of life, you cant build a state on the back of sugarcane and not expect the toad to do some damage

 

[Godfrey]

So how's being outside the top 4 at the business end of the season treating you guys? Good?

 

[waratahjesus]

So how's being outside the top 4 at the business end of the season treating you guys? Good?

if we get past the brumbies its going to be very very good, IF!