RWC - Wallabies v Ireland - 17th September 2011

[Cutter]

Love hearing the Irish views. Thanks for your input gents.

I'm not as confident as Riptide and I worry about the Irish tendency towards self deprecation (though they'd say they aren't even very good at that) being deceiving. I hope you bring a one in ten performance because it would be great for the RWC and a good warm up for the Wobs if they still win. If they don't, they probably won't be good enough to win the RWC anyway. Good luck either way.

Waratahs fans won't like hearing your comments about Gaffney. We hold him in high regard and are hoping he performs miracles with the Waratahs', at times turgid, backline.

 

[cyclopath]

We don't usually smash Ireland, so I can't see why we'll start now. If we get parity in set pieces and front up at the breakdown, I do think our backs wil be better. But the first part of that sentence is hardly a given, looking at the inconsistency in Wallaby forward play in the last few years. To be honest, like Cutter, I wouldn't mind a real arm wrestle that we run away with in the last 10 minutes. The team will be affording them plenty of respect, I think.

 

[Athilnaur]

Wallabies are favourites, but you can bet your last dollar they know they will need their A game. Always do vs Ireland and even more so cup time.

It's going to be a right old ding-dong battle alright.

 

[Riptide]

Waratahs fans won't like hearing your comments about Gaffney. We hold him in high regard and are hoping he performs miracles with the Waratahs', at times turgid, backline.

If you think hey are turgid now, just wait. You'll long for these days.

 

[Riptide]

We don't usually smash Ireland, so I can't see why we'll start now. If we get parity in set pieces and front up at the breakdown, I do think our backs wil be better. But the first part of that sentence is hardly a given, looking at the inconsistency in Wallaby forward play in the last few years. To be honest, like Cutter, I wouldn't mind a real arm wrestle that we run away with in the last 10 minutes. The team will be affording them plenty of respect, I think.

I know we should all respect he opposition and talk them up with kind words but I've had enough.

The IRFU has enormous sway over the provinces. The Irish target the 6N’s and get more complete access to players since they are contracted centrally, while the French and English flog their players in long, attritional domestic comps. Frankly, the Irish don’t have to treat the domestic comp as seriously (was the Magners and is now Pro 12) with Munster, Leinster and Ulster pretty much assured qualification for the HEC as long as they finish ahead of lowly Connaught. So, Ireland's players are always being tuned to perform in both the HEC and 6N’s. IMO, Ireland have consistently disappointed in the RWC because Irish expectations have been unrealistic. When other Test teams have time to adequately prepare their teams, the Irish have consistently shown that they cannot beat them away from the comforts of home. It has always been thus.

The supposed strength of the Irish team, their back-row, will be negated when SOB is asked to perform at 7. As I mentioned in an earlier post, he is not a 7. He is a ball carrying dynamo who has admitted that he doesn’t particularly like playing 7, and is ineffective at club level, never mind Test level. The Irish back row end up terribly imbalanced as a result, and have no players who can compete on the ground with Pocock (other than O’Driscoll) but Kidney will play SOB there anyway as he has managed to produce a squad after 3 years with no bona fide Test quality 7, no clear understanding of who is playing 9, 10 and a dysfunctional 12 who simply cannot hack it at test level any more.

 

[Lee Grant]

A bit extreme in parts Riptide but you know your Irish rugby.

 

[Logorrhea]

Frankly, the Irish don’t have to treat the domestic comp as seriously (was the Magners and is now Pro 12) with Munster, Leinster and Ulster pretty much assured qualification for the HEC as long as they finish ahead of lowly Connaught.

People always say this, yet Leinster and Munster have been the dominant teams in the competition for the past 4-5 years. Last year the Irish teams had three semi finalists. I'd suggest you find another doozy cause this one dont apply anymore.

The rest ........... well you said it already in another post. You are right in most areas, wrong in a few.

The power of the Irish backrow is not in our work at the breakdown, though I'd keep an eye on the likes of Healy, O'Connell, O'Brien and Heaslip there. None of them can compare to Pocock, not even close, but I wouldnt dismiss them as you seem to have done. If any of them get hold of the ball, it'll be a turnover, and Pocock wont be at every breakdown. Again, Australia will be on top, but it wont be all one sided.

You also dismissed the backrow without even mentioning the ball carrying ability, their strength. These are the source of our linebreaks and when you are defending against three or four of them, along with the likes of O'Driscoll (if he ever plays well again), Bowe etc it offers up a defensive challenge that teams can struggle with.

Its like the damage Samo has been doing for you guys of late. We dont have the likes of a Cooper, or Ioane or O'Connor, but we have three Samo's.

You guys are also going to have to adjust to not having Ioane there to defend the 10 channel. Is there a ready made player, set to step in and defend that 10 channel with any familiarity? (not a challenge, just an honest question)

 

[Athilnaur]

I would not say familiarity but O'Connor clearly has the skills.

There is also merit to just playing Quade at 10, as it's likely to free Beale up some. Quade's tackling is poor but he can and does tackle when needed.

Looking forward to three Samos! I am expecting the Irish to step up bigtime, you usually do against us and the motivation will be there in spades.

 

[Lee Grant]

Good post Logorrhea. I don't know if you have 3 Samos but they are very good backrowers. Riptide is right in indicating that they won't be the well balanced trio that 6. SOB, 7. Wallace and 8. Heaslip would have been. Having said that 6. Ferris was very good the other night and better than 8. Heaslip; 7. Jennings wasn't much but he won't be playing against Oz.

Wally is a huge loss because he was born to play in big events. I saw that trial game when he was injured and knew Ireland's RWC chances had been diminished.

Oz had better look out for Ireland's party trick. They stop a ball runner upright then surround him and hold him up so they get a stopped maul and are awarded the scrum. Talking of scrums: it will be interesting to see how the battle goes since neither side have had great scrums recently, but are on the improve. The lineouts should be a good battle too if the throwing is good.

The tactics of Oz will be to run Ireland around the park as they are used to a slower game, but they have to get quick ball before they do that.

 

[thedubs]

I know we should all respect he opposition and talk them up with kind words but I've had enough.

The IRFU has enormous sway over the provinces. The Irish target the 6N’s and get more complete access to players since they are contracted centrally, while the French and English flog their players in long, attritional domestic comps. Frankly, the Irish don’t have to treat the domestic comp as seriously (was the Magners and is now Pro 12) with Munster, Leinster and Ulster pretty much assured qualification for the HEC as long as they finish ahead of lowly Connaught. So, Ireland's players are always being tuned to perform in both the HEC and 6N’s. IMO, Ireland have consistently disappointed in the RWC because Irish expectations have been unrealistic. When other Test teams have time to adequately prepare their teams, the Irish have consistently shown that they cannot beat them away from the comforts of home. It has always been thus.

The supposed strength of the Irish team, their back-row, will be negated when SOB is asked to perform at 7. As I mentioned in an earlier post, he is not a 7. He is a ball carrying dynamo who has admitted that he doesn’t particularly like playing 7, and is ineffective at club level, never mind Test level. The Irish back row end up terribly imbalanced as a result, and have no players who can compete on the ground with Pocock (other than O’Driscoll) but Kidney will play SOB there anyway as he has managed to produce a squad after 3 years with no bona fide Test quality 7, no clear understanding of who is playing 9, 10 and a dysfunctional 12 who simply cannot hack it at test level any more.

You're right in parts Riptide. However, the French and English clubs usually have 2XV's to make up for this. You got Wikipedia handy? Check the squads for a few of these top english and french sides. Toulouse, Toulon, Saracens, Stade Francais, Clermont, Leicester. Ever wondered why the English and French buy all the old Super XV players? Its because of your very reasoning, they have 2 physical fronts to play on. Now check Leinster and Munster - notice how few foreigners there are - thats because they have their 1 XV and thats it. They always play that team. So id argue they have it harder, although less physical domestic games - the games are all played with the same team, bar a few older, key players like O'Driscoll etc. Toulouse's first XV will often be fresher due to less games. The only team last year that Leinster played, who used the same XV in both premiership and Heineken cup rugby - was Northampton, and thats because they are a relatively poor club, who infact just got promoted to the Aviva premiership 2 years back.

Theres your answer. I respect the Aussie team and the fans a lot, because like Ireland they have to compete with other sports ahead of RU, and still maintain being a powerhouse. We have the Gaelic football - Aussie rules element. We have the football - Rugby league element. We have Hurling too over here. Its amazing either of us can have great track records against the Boks, Englands and France's of the world. Oh er, not france for us anyway. Think that and the fact a lot of fella's are of a bit of Irish descent both mix to add a bit of a connection between the rugby playing countries. Heres to both of us doing well, because feck knows we both like a drink too.

 

[Riptide]

A couple of points (and I apologize for boring the forum if I am repeating myself) :

Firstly, yes, the English and French have to carry massive squads but that’s mainly to compensate for the high attrition rate of their domestic league, not to compete in the HEC. For the French, the Brennus holds far greater importance than the HEC. How often have we seen French teams not even show up for away matches and rollover if their path to qualification form the group has been made much more difficult by an initial loss? They do not even select their first XV, and defeat ensues. Even Toulouse would not claim that those players who do not make their match day 22 for a critical home match are of equal value to those who do. Irish teams benefit from this focus on domestic competition and the fact that the Scottish, Italian and two of the 4 Welsh franchises are just dreadful. Irish teams can focus on the HEC and the 6Ns and even excuse front line players for frequent training camp jaunts away with Kidney. Come the 6N’s, Ireland have had better prep than anyone and so are in a better position to perform. Take them out of that comp, and Ireland struggle.. period.

Secondly, the breakdown is where most test matches are won and lost in the modern game. Unless one team dominates primary possession, the breakdown usually dictates the outcome of a match. Ireland were poor in this area in the RWC build-up and were dreadful against the USA where even a ridiculously dominant platform from lineout, scrum, maul could not ensure they won quick ball from the ensuing collisions against a 2nd/3rd tier nation. In short, Ferris aside, the Irish pack couldn’t dominate tackles or winning the ensuing breakdown battle against a group going backwards all night long. In addition, for all the talk about this vaunted Irish backrow, Ireland really only won the breakdown battle decisively against England this year. If Ireland cant up their game and secure quick ball, Heaslip, Ferris and SOB will be running into brick walls all day from slow ball and their off-loading game is non-existent; Ireland play a go to ground, re-establish the off-die line game and Pocock will murder them here. Ireland have struggled to break the gain line all year (except England) when they have over emphasized the midfield channel and then subsequently struggle at the breakdown. It will not be any easier against the Wallabies, where Nuciforo has really done an excellent job since taking over this brief from Jim Williams.

 

[RuckinGoodStats]

Secondly, the breakdown is where most test matches are won and lost in the modern game. Unless one team dominates primary possession, the breakdown usually dictates the outcome of a match. Ireland were poor in this area in the RWC build-up and were dreadful against the USA where even a ridiculously

Irish made 5 turnovers when USA took the ball into a ruck/maul and had 62% of the contestable ball (64% 1st half 59% 2nd half) for a 10 point win. Looking at their posssion and territory charts by 30 second grabs they seem in both havles to be onto it for the first 12 mins and last 12 mins of each half. Or USA are onto it during the 13th minute to the 28th minute of both halves. USA missed 17 tackles, but Ireland spent 21% of the game inside USA's 22 for a ten pont win.

 

[thedubs]

Riptide, re: your recent post.

The second point about the breakdown is true. And serves Ireland well, as over the past 7 or so years O'driscoll and D'arcy have been trained into turnover machines. Did you see the stats for the turnovers by individual basis for the year Ireland won the grand slam? Out of all the players in the competition, O'driscoll came second or third. Ill try n get the source for that in a minute. Heaslip is one of the best turnover machines in the NH, much better than your standard no.8. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHIDaqt2Tow


Ireland players do have an easier league. But its part of a cycle, its a dead league. The flip side of the coin is that players arent ready for HC intensity rugby, and should do poorly. But they dont, they do outstandingly.

Dress it up anyway you want, Ireland have earned everything they won, and havent had an easier nor harder route than any other team.

 

[Lindommer]

Any chance of a G&GR get-together on Saturday night? Suggested venue?

 

[Army_Gav]

Any chance of a G&GR get-together on Saturday night? Suggested venue?

In Und Zd?

 

[cyclopath]

Think Lindo is talking Sydney or thereabouts.

 

[fatprop]

AUCKLAND, 14 Sept. - Ireland head coach Declan Kidney on Wednesday announced his team to play their second match in Pool C against Australia at Eden Park, Auckland, on Saturday, 17 September.

Ireland:

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Donncha O'Callaghan
5. Paul O'Connell
6. Stephen Ferris
7. Sean O'Brien
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Eoin Reddan
10. Jonathan Sexton
11. Keith Earls
12. Gordon D'Arcy
13. Brian O'Driscoll (c)
14. Tommy Bowe
15. Rob Kearney

Replacements:

16. Jerry Flannery
17. Tom Court
18. Donnacha Ryan
19. Denis Leamy
20. Conor Murray
21. Ronan O'Gara
22. Andrew Trimble

 

[Richo]

Jesus, FP, that avatar is your scariest one yet.

 

[barbarian]

That is a strong side. I don't care about their form, this will be a fucking tough game and I will take a win under any circumstances.

 

[Riptide]

Surprised Kidney has gone with Sexton given that he is so quick to pull him whenever he puts a foot, two or three wrong. But Sexton's will be looking over his shoulder as his confidence and form are not in the ascendant. O'Gara is the better player at the moment, but in selecting Sexton, Kidney signals that Ireland are going to run at Aus, or attempt to. Ireland have not found any penetration in recent months and need a running 10 to fasten the drift or at least pose questions. It's worth noting that the 7,8,9,10,12, 15 are all from Leinster which would lead you to believe that this is a pretty cohesive, well-oiled unit. You are wrong. Gaffney/Kidney have Ireland playing to a different pattern (not really discernible or effective) and tempo than Joe Schmidt at Leinster. Ireland tries to punch through the advantage line in midfield and once that is stopped, the gears grind slower. Nacewa starts for Leinster at fullback, is probably the best in Europe at the moment, and is a major source of penetration in that side which plays 90 miles an hour and attempts to execute everything at pace. Ireland is more methodical but no longer has the horses to play a ball control game that Kidney championed at Munster when Munster really had the horses upfront (includng the Wallabies own Jim Williams).

So, nothing about that Irish team worries me. I respect O'Connell, Ferris, Bowe and O'Driscoll. They have produced on the big stage and are proven test quality players. O'Gara for all his well documented weaknesses is a tough little bugger and mentally as hard as they come, but that's really it. Until the USA, Ireland have only managed to barely beat Italy (13-11) and Scotland (21-18) away from home this season. They will not come close to beating the Wallabies in the SH.

Yes, the Wallabies will win this one comfortably and going away because they will dominate the breakdown, slow Irish ball down and win theirs quickly. The Irish will struggle to break the advantage line and will not get the ball into the hands of their principle carriers running from deep.