Well, I'm going to take a contrarian view. The Irish will be smashed. It's not even going to be close. Ireland got owned at the breakdown this past weekend behind a dominant scrum and lineout. The USA are not close to being a good side, but yet Ireland only managed 3 line breaks all game, and 2 offloads against them. Ireland are bare of any confidence and they are not going to suddenly find it against the Wallabies. They cannot put a cohesive back-line move together even with the rare, infrequent quick ball they produce and Kidney has messed about with the 9 and 10 positions for over two season now and still it's unclear who his starters are there.
Front row, ADV Aus; Ireland have a solidly performing unit at scrum time but have no cover. Ross is as mobile as a braised leg of lamb and does absolutely nothing outside of the scrum. He cant even move his feet to be in position to make the tackle.
Locks ADV Aus O’Connell is an excellent lock, a top line out operator but lacks physical impact in contact. He goes to ground too easily. O’Callaghan is rubbish; he hasn’t played well except for the odd game (usually England) for years but Kidney persists with him as he is a “tryer”. His indiscipline is good for at least 3 points if not six Australian points. He places no pressure on the opposition line out, is not a ball carrier, does not hit rucks that hared anymore and is a lousy ball-carrier.
Back-row ADV AusFerris is a stud, a powerful no-nonsense 6 who really clears rucks and does the business with ball in hand and he is ferocious if not entirely accurate in the tackle. For me, he is ireland’s best player if fit. Heaslip has been in poor form and did absolutely nothing against the US. I had to check to see that he was playing. He will not find form against Aus. At 7, with Wallace out, Ireland have to play SOB there but it negates his main strength as a ball carrier, and he is NOT a 7. Pocock will own him or anyone else the Irish plays here. When picked at 7 by Leinster in their HEC (semi and final), it was apparent SOB wasn’t up to it; Leinster were not effective on the ground or at the breakdown until Jennings replaced SOB at 7, and SOB was shifted to 6 where he then had real impact. With SOB at 7, this Irish backrow is imbalanced but they are desperate for ball-carriers and Jennings has proven time and time again that he is not a Test quality No. 7. At 6, Ireland have 2 superb players, but only one can play there. At 7, they have nobody and were reliant on a 35 yr old to compete in the most demanding position on the field, but he got crocked before the plane left Ireland.
9/10 ADV Aus At scrumhalf, the Irish are simply woeful. None of their options is that useful never mind of Test quality and all take an age to clear the ball from the base, and are then frequently inaccurate. Reddan will probably get selected by default as Murray is too inexperienced and was slow and indecisive against the USA. At 10, Sexton has been poor in green. His game management or kicking game is simply not at O’Gara’s level and O’Gara will probably get the nod even though his defense is of Quade Cooper quality (although he does throw his body in there) and he cannot fix the opposition drift as he is never a threat to run. It’s for this reason that the best passer in the Irish game, Stringer, was left at home; you can’t have a 9 and a 10 in the modern game when neither present a running threat to the opposition defense.
Centers EVEN D’Arcy has become a turnstile. The US made plenty of ground running right at D’Arcy and O’Driscoll both of whom are living off reputations, have lost considerable speed and no longer present much of a threat to break the gain line. When D’Arcy can actually hold on to a ball, he doesn’t break the advantage line anymore and he misses tackles now with alarming frequency. McFadden is available but Kidney will not pick him even though D'Arcy's form has been abject. O’Driscoll still runs superbly clever, angled lines but his lack of pace means he is only a threat close to the line, but he is a huge threat. The Irish are so dependant on him that it’s ridiculous. Without him they have no creativity or penetration. O'Driscoll is also a 'lead by example' player and his defense is utterly committed, although he has shown some frailty there in recent times.. It's evident the enormous influence he has on the field
Back three, ADV Aus if Ireland play Kearney at 15 then there goes their running, linking game (whatever is left of it). He is superb under the high ball, has a big match temperament but he has no pace and not much of a pass. Bowe is excellent even if he was crap for much of the game against USA and Earls has yet to do anything to justify the hype the Irish pumped him to some years ago. He is a good open field runner but doesn’t go looking for work and makes poor decisions defensively.
Finally at coach, Kidney is out of his depth. He was never known as a technical coach, but earned a rep as good man manager with Munster. He continues to make the same mistakes for the past couple of years years, and Ireland really have only had one really decent game in those two years. He persists with selecting players that only occasionally produce and frequently disappoint (O’Callaghan, D’Arcy etc.) and he has been the architect of an Irish team that is playing with zero confidence, doesn't know who its 7, 9 or 10 is going to be, and plays with no guile or even trademark tenacity. He is a “Gee, ah shucks” type of coach. The best thing about that Irish side coaching team is the formidable Les Kiss, a good Aussie defensive coach. Gaffney, the attack coach is rubbish.
Ireland are justifiably ranked 8th in the world. They are no sure thing to beat Italy (if they remain healthy) to emerge from the group and then they will then face a quick exit as usual. They haven't the confidence, the belief to win a big game now and when they have won such a game, it has been at home and a once-off. They are a diminishing force. Kidney has taken the Champions of Europe in 4 of the past 6 seasons (Munster, then Leinster) and rendered them impotent. They play with no distinguishing style and Kidney seems unable to pick the personnel they need to play the game they want.
The Wallabies will win this easily. I know this forum trying to be generous to visitors but let's give them the respect they deserve by being honest with them; Ireland have no chance against the Wallabies, because they simply aren't that good, and the Wallabies are much better.
