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RWC 2011 SF2: Australia vs. New Zealand

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Scotty

Scotty

David Codey (61)
pete88 said:
I wouldn't mind seeing Fainga'a pick off a Cruden pass deep in our 22 and score under the posts either.
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Don't think I have ever seen him get an intercept. More likely that he comes off his man to axe the ball receiver, who then spills the pill only for JOC (James O'Connor) to kick it through, regather and score!
 
Karl

Karl

Bill McLean (32)
So, KB (Kurtley Beale) is out, Fainga starts, Cooper could be brilliant (will be brilliant, just watch), Genia is always good but games like this he just goes up a level. I like how we talk down our guys, but we know it's just a strategy to blunt the anguish if we lose because we have the team to win this game. Like any big game, they just need to do what they need to do.
 
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potjiekos

Guest
Too close to call..... Can't wait for this epic battle to commence!!!

To my Aussie and New Zealand bretheren..... Best of luck to your respective teams!!
 
Swat

Swat

Chilla Wilson (44)
potjiekos said:
Too close to call..... Can't wait for this epic battle to commence!!!

To my Aussie and New Zealand bretheren..... Best of luck to your respective teams!!
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Thanks mate. Let's hope it's a good, flowing game. Best of luck to our ANZAC brothers across the ditch.
 
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Hugh Jarse

Hugh Jarse

Rocky Elsom (76)
Thanks Potjiekos. Agree that anything could happen out there today.

With all due respect to the people of Christchurch, Chez Jarse is as jumpy as a Christchurch home owner today.

Regardless of who wins, Heaven's Game can not afford another slugfest like last night.

Can I publicly wish both teams, and supporters on both sides of the Dutch, all the best for today, and may the winner win with grace and humility, and the loser lose with pride and dignity.

Oh, and by the way, C'mon you bastard Wobbolies you need to take the game by the scruff of its neck and score more points than the NZRT.
 
Swat

Swat

Chilla Wilson (44)
Am sweating like a blind lesbian in a fish market... I've been watching this over and over to calm the nerves:
[video=youtube;7Il065V-u8M]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Il065V-u8M[/video]
 
Inside Shoulder

Inside Shoulder

Nathan Sharpe (72)
You should approach all encounters against the Blackness with the expectation of loss. You should maintain that position until the final whistle, irrespective of the score. That way (a) youre never disappointed and (b) god a win feels good. The alternative is to decide you will only watch a replay and do so with full knowledge of the score.
at least that's what my psychiatrist suggested
 
R

RuckinGoodStats

Guest
kiap said:
Better for left foot kickers (maybe). Is this result statistically significant, and is it common for referees to penalise more on one side of the defensive field?
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Yeah a bit of surprise, but I'm seeing a trend. Walsh for example is right side of the field. Lawrence is left side of the field, so to is Rolland (including last nights games as well)

I'm keen to get more games to see if it's a game changer or just a quirky thing. Think next years Super15 will be ideal. Of course I only start thinking about these things at the start of a comp and I'm just not that keen to go back over evey game to get a bigger dataset.

For statisitcal inference these are calculated using ODD ratios, so applying the magnitude of effect to them. Still have decided whether a pen kick is a rare event or not. This will influcence the inference. Any ideas. Clearly the defending team will say they are not rare enough, but thinking they are not rare events becuase they occur on a regular basis.
 
Inside Shoulder

Inside Shoulder

Nathan Sharpe (72)
RuckinGoodStats said:
Since there is a bit of debate thought I might wade in with a few numbers on Joubert given last night and the result. Will pop back in an hour or so and drop in some NZ v AUS stats if there is a bit of interest, more a summary of tale of the tape that I posted via Gaggar in the week.

Ref is Joubert’s average per game in RWC (2011 average in brackets)
•2.8 Scrum resets, ranked 9 highest (3.2)
•4.8 Scrum infringements, ranked 6 highest (4.5)
•20 Pens awarded, ranked 6 highest (19.2)
•12.6 Pens for ruck, ranked 4 highest (11.4)
•3.6 Pens for scrum, ranked 5 highest (2.9)
•0.2 Pens for lineouts, ranked 5 highest (0.1)
•2 Pens for offside, ranked 5 highest (2.4)
•1.6 Pens for other, ranked 2 highest (2.4)
•7.4 Pens Awarded inside 22, ranked 8 highest
•2.6 Total Free kicks awarded, ranked 4 highest (2.1)
•1.2 Free kick for scrum, ranked 1 highest (0.5)
•1.4 Free kick for lineouts, ranked 2 highest (1.4)
•66% more likely to award a penalty that becomes a kick at goal on the RIGHT side of the field than the left side.

Joubert has a different pattern for scrums. He tends reset few scrums, so he favours infringements rather the resets. This makes scrum time, fun time and I’ll be checking out where the goal posts are in relation to the scrum every time there is a one being set.

The thing about Joubert at scrum time is that he isn’t consistent in the numbers. In his last Australia v NZ there were more scrums resets than infringements. So while the numbers suggest he favours infringements over resets it might be more down to the teams than the ref. Either way, check out the goal post in relation to the scrum. In the Tri-Nations game v NZ he reset 6 scrum and awarded 4 infringements.
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There are some quirky numbers here: the lineout penalties/free kicks are incredibly low when you think about what is involved in a lineout. If they were truly a contest for possession wouldn't you expect to see penalties/free kick levels at the rate of scrums and rucks/mauls? Theory: either the line out is not the contest we think it is or the refs let most of the infringements go.

Penalties on the right side: just a hunch but isn't more attacking done on the right side, statistically? Or does this measure the number of times a penalty on the right side results in a kick for goal: if so its counter intuitive since most kicker are right footed and prefer to fade the ball in from the left side than slice it in from the right.
 
BDA

BDA

Jim Lenehan (48)
Inside Shoulder said:
You should approach all encounters against the Blackness with the expectation of loss. You should maintain that position until the final whistle, irrespective of the score. That way (a) youre never disappointed and (b) god a win feels good. The alternative is to decide you will only watch a replay and do so with full knowledge of the score.
at least that's what my psychiatrist suggested
Click to expand...


"If you think you can or you think you can't you're probably right" Henry Ford
 
Inside Shoulder

Inside Shoulder

Nathan Sharpe (72)
RuckinGoodStats said:
Yeah a bit of surprise, but I'm seeing a trend. Walsh for example is right side of the field. I'm keen to get mopre games to see if it's a game changer or just a quirky thing. Think next years Super15 will be ideal. Of course I only start thining about these things at the start of a comp and I'm just not that keen to go back over evey game to get a bigger dataset.
Click to expand...

Do you have a stat the breaks down the ratio of attacks to the left of the scrum/breakdown versus to the right?
 
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