RWC 2011 SF2: Australia vs. New Zealand

[BPC]

Soutie, contribute something worthwhile reading to this site or bugger off.

Maybe he has mistaken this for Keo.

 

[08umema]

Well, from the France/Wales game, they'd gain about 1.8.

That'd take them to 85.

Against Australia, they'd be at an approx 5.6 deficit and gain another 3 points if they win to take them to 88.. which should be enough to take first actually (given the Wobs would lose 3 from their approx 90.5) unless the ABs also won the the 3/4 playoff; which might or might not see them get enough to get over Wales, it would be close.

Against NZ it would be an approx 9 deficit factoring in home ground. That would see an approx 3.8 point shift... which would result in Wales taking first pretty clearly.

Just looking at France, they'd be in a relatively similar position; since they'd gain approx 6 points by winning all the way. Which combined with the other teams losing points would redistribute things mostly in their way, depending on the 3/4 playoff.

All in all, whichever team wins the WC has a very good chance of being World #1 at the end of it.

Just reading that gave me a headache...

 

[Slim 293]

I was under the impression that the points system is set up so whoever wins the tournament will take the #1 spot on the IRB rankings?

 

[08umema]

I was under the impression that the points system is set up so whoever wins the tournament will take the #1 spot on the IRB rankings?

Likewise.

 

[BDA]

Not that this has anything to do with this weekend's game but am I right in thinking the Wallabies will face Wales later this year. That should be a great game. WC final rematch perhaps? .

BTW- does anyone know whether Horne is in the selection frame for next week???

 

[fatprop]

I was under the impression that the points system is set up so whoever wins the tournament will take the #1 spot on the IRB rankings?

yep double points through the RWC, so the Boks are about to lose a load

 

[Sluggy]

yep double points through the RWC, so the Boks are about to lose a load

Does it work like the tennis? If you don't play a tournament there you lose all the points you got last time at that fixture, without the chance to pick up replacements IIUIC.

Meaning a good RWC finish boosts you for 4 years, but you lose a lot of ground going out early next time?

Or does not playing the knockout stages mean you sit on the same points and just miss the chance to collect or lose double points?

 

[fatprop]

Q. How important are past achievements in calculating the rankings?

The system is designed to produce an accurate picture of current strength, based on results. The importance of past successes will fade and be superseded by more recent results.

http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html/#eg

 

[Utility Back]

The whole points system resets after the world cup i believe, so if wales win they are number 1, runner up 2nd, but im not sure how it stacks up after 4th.

 

[fatprop]

Wallabies will target Cruden, says Genia
Georgina Robinson
October 11, 2011 - 1:10PM
Getting up off the floor ... despite injury concerns after two collisions in training sessions this week, Wallabies halfback Will Genia says that he is ready to go in the decider against the All Blacks.

Confident ... Will Genia. Photo: Getty Images

Henry shows faith in young gun Cruden

AUCKLAND: Star Wallabies halfback Will Genia says Australia can win this weekend and third-choice New Zealand fly-half Aaron Cruden will be targeted by the men in green and gold.

Genia said Cruden, who was called up after the All Blacks lost Dan Carter and Colin Slade to injury, was a very good player who liked to attack but was vulnerable because of his size (178 centimetres to Quade Cooper's 186).
Advertisement: Story continues below
Targeted ... Aaron Cruden.

Targeted ... Aaron Cruden. Photo: AP

"I don't think he'll affect their performance at all, he's a very attacking player, he likes to take the line on and he's not dissimilar to Dan Carter in that sense," the 23-year-old said.

"He'll be very good, I think we'll maybe look to run a bit of traffic at him because of him being a smaller bloke."

Genia, who is no giant himself, dismissed talk of an Eden Park hoodoo and said the Wallabies could beat New Zealand in Sunday's semi-final but only if they improved on their gutsy but error-laden performance against South Africa.

"We want to play to our strengths which is obviously that attacking style of rugby, running rugby," he said.

"We didn't give ourselves that opportunity (on Sunday) because we weren't good enough I think, predominately with our set-piece, we had a few lineouts and scrums in their half and we didn't execute so we lost the ball.

"I think we pretty much won the game on sheer guts and character and if you look at that game, if we play like (that) against the All Blacks they'll put us away."

Genia said the side had the courage and skill to beat New Zealand.

He said to a journalist who remarked that it sounded as if he thought the Wallabies could win the World Cup: "I'm a man who believes we can win this weekend".

"I feel we have the group and the capability to do well ... It's not arrogant and it's not cocky, it's just belief in our own ability.

"I'm looking forward to the challenge."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/r...-says-genia-20111011-1lif9.html#ixzz1aRDDPhKc

Nicely put Mr Genia

 

[Sluggy]

http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html/#eg

OK, read that, and understand that:

Most recent result affects points level most , with away wins against higher ranking teams better, >15 points away wins even better, and >15 point away RWC wins best. Presumably everyone bar NZ gets away points?

So RWC finals winning and losing moves you round quite a bit, but once you are out you just sit still until your next international game.

Which I think means if the ABs win the thing, SA could end up #2, NZ #1, and Oz dropping down while one of Wales nor France come up a bit and the other gets a plus then a minus and stays put.

Clear as mud.

 

[Ruggo]

Nothing to do with the thread but fatprop that new avatar is a pearler.

 

[Utility Back]

Nicely put Mr Genia

That interview was hyperbole proof...you're move Mr Journalist.

 

[What2040]

are there any updates on injuries to McCabe, Beale, Kepu

 

[AngrySeahorse]

Sounds like they think they have lost already. The game hasn't been played yet!! Interested to see how Cruden will perform.

Is Slade def out? I'm more worried about Cruden I thought he looked better in that Argie game than Slade did in most of the times I've seen him in an All Black jersey. Wouldn't mind seeing the Don get out there instead.

 

[SaderCheif]

Is Slade def out? I'm more worried about Cruden I thought he looked better in that Argie game than Slade did in most of the times I've seen him in an All Black jersey. Wouldn't mind seeing the Don get out there instead.

Yup. Slades goneburgers. Cruden first choice, the Duck on the bench. If the Duck takes to the field my head will explode.

 

[Sandpit Fan]

Yup. Slades goneburgers. Cruden first choice, the Duck on the bench. If the Duck takes to the field my head will explode.

I'd say you won't be the only person in that situation if the Duck runs on.

The screaming will be heard in Australia, closely followed by a spike in calls for ambulances.

Sent using Tapatalk

 

[MrTimms]

are there any updates on injuries to McCabe, Beale, Kepu

Last update was that KB (Kurtley Beale) wasn't looking good, but not ruled out yet. I have nothing else on Kepu or Pat.

 

[James Buchanan]

I was under the impression that the points system is set up so whoever wins the tournament will take the #1 spot on the IRB rankings?

No, simply double points. It's explained on the site I linked. Of course double points and the number of games played result in large changes of points which generally result in significant changes of position; especially if you get to the pointy end and are beating teams who are either high in the rankings or have beaten teams high in the rankings (and as such have points from doing so).

Does it work like the tennis? If you don't play a tournament there you lose all the points you got last time at that fixture, without the chance to pick up replacements IIUIC.

Meaning a good RWC finish boosts you for 4 years, but you lose a lot of ground going out early next time?

Or does not playing the knockout stages mean you sit on the same points and just miss the chance to collect or lose double points?

The second is closest to accurate. Its a zero sum system. The team that loses gives points to the team that wins. If you do not play, you cannot lose points but cannot gain points either.

The whole points system resets after the world cup i believe, so if wales win they are number 1, runner up 2nd, but im not sure how it stacks up after 4th.

No, it never resets; that's the point of the system. Because of the double points nature of the system, winning in the World Cup will *usually* get you to 1st in the world, but it is not guaranteed. The reason that the RWC winner gets ahead is because to win the final, everyone else must have lost to someone and suffered the loss of double points in doing so; that's in addition to winning a HEAP of points by beating many of the best teams in the world while double points is active.

Because I wanted to be extra certain, I tried to work out the (not particularly difficult to identify) mathematical formula behind it all.

From eyeballing the graphs it appears to be something simple like: Win = (Their Rating - Your Rating)/10 + 1, Lose = (Their Rating - Your Rating)/10 - 1 and Draw = (Their Rating - Your Rating)/10 with a min/max (Their Rating - Your Rating) at ±10 (ie: so no one can gain points by losing).

Those formulas certainly fit with the numbers that they've given us in the example. Having looked at that, after playing around with a spreadsheet, I can say with some confidence that whomever wins the RWC will assume World #1 status, although (unless I've stuffed up the modeling) if France defeat Australia in the final and NZ defeat Wales in the 3/4 playoff, it will only be by 0.43 rating points.

 

[nugget]

Genia said Cruden, who was called up after the All Blacks lost Dan Carter and Colin Slade to injury, was a very good player who liked to attack but was vulnerable because of his size (178 centimetres to Quade Cooper's 186)

could say the same thing about quade coming up against mike phillips in the final (which they will).