RWC 2011 SF2: Australia vs. New Zealand

[Ruggo]

I love a South African whine.

Full of sour grapes.

Careful mate. The most productive SA posters on this forum are the ones that have been so gracious in defeat. This tool is just a rogue.

 

[Braveheart81]

Sorry. I couldn't resist.

Back on topic, we're back to number 2 on the world rankings.

 

[matty_k]

Soutie, contribute something worthwhile reading to this site or bugger off.

Yes, Lindommer. The tiresome sociopathology of the anonymous troll emerging from the darkened room called hate. A species that will never die.

We may not be able to kill off the species but this one has been put down.

 

[Antony]

Wow - if the Wallabies win on the weekend (or win the whole she-bang) do they go to number 1? It would be a win against the All Blacks, at home, in a World Cup (which is double-points or something, right?) so you'd think it could be enough to bridge the gap.

Edit: Obviously I'm speaking in completely crazed hypotheticals here. My post read too much like the win was a foregone conclusion.

 

[Sluggy]

so we are not expecting "whats happening" to be happening so fast that we arent caught out with the wrong man in position....what a bullshit way to run a side claiming to RWC contenders: very happy if I get egg on my face over this one

I read Deans' comments as Cooper at 10 on attack, Barnes on defensive set pieces... basically Barnes in for Beale as a straight swap, but simplifying things by not having Digby standing at 10.

In broken play often someone else has to take the first pass if the 10 is caught up in the breakdown, particularly a running 10 like Cooper. Barnes has the experience to do better than McCabe in that role. As would/do JOC (James O'Connor) or Beale.

 

[Braveheart81]

Without wanting to put the mockers on him, I think KB (Kurtley Beale) must still be a strong chance to play.

If scans confirmed he actually had a hamstring tear, he would have presumably been ruled out by now. If it is just the general tightness he has been struggling with for a while, I'd back him to play. Like everyone, he's surely desperate to play and at this stage, he can't be thinking I'll sit out the semi so I'm right for the final.

You'd have to think that Pat McCabe is almost certain to face the surgeon's knife after the RWC. He must have put that shoulder through hell. Whilst you might consider it foolish to risk further injury by continuing to play, I can understand where he is coming from. Four years is a long way away, and he may never get this opportunity again.

 

[fatprop]

I thought it was interesting that Deans said McCabe got a few "stingers" in the match, but the strength was coming back to the shoulder.

 

[Braveheart81]

I think Deans was pretty amused/bemused in his post match press conference that McCabe was talking up how good his shoulder was in the dressing rooms after the match.

I think blind Freddy knows that shoulder is hanging on by a thread but McCabe is still willing to put the body on the line and play through the pain.

 

[Sluggy]

In reality this is probably what will happen they just won't have those numbers on their backs. It could be quite brilliant if deans also plays barnes at 10 in attack, particularly early in the game. Then Cooper can choose when to involve himself and will have more space. As mentioned earlier they can also stand either side of the ruck to help split the defense. We also gain a lot from having barnes defend at 10, organization and allowing digby to stay on the wing.

You mean as in Cooper actually playing fullback?

Agree whole heartedly, putting Barnes at first receiver may induce the other side to expect a kick... then after 4 or 5 of those run it instead with Cooper and the blind winger running either side of McCabe and Barnes fading back to cover.

A bit like engineering the 'Halangahu effect' - :halangahu: - when he runs it occasionally the other team often seem frozen by shock and hang off him as he strolls in for a try.

 

[James Buchanan]

Wow - if the Wallabies win on the weekend (or win the whole she-bang) do they go to number 1? It would be a win against the All Blacks, at home, in a World Cup (which is double-points or something, right?) so you'd think it could be enough to bridge the gap.

Edit: Obviously I'm speaking in completely crazed hypotheticals here. My post read too much like the win was a foregone conclusion.

http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html/ explains the rating change.

Following that, we start with NZ having a 3.41 rating difference. Because that is at home, it counts as a 6.41.

Going from the pictures, a rating change for a 6.41 rating difference would be approximately +1.7 for the Wallabies, should they win, and -1.7 for the All Blacks, should they lose.

Because this is in a World Cup, that doubles to ±3.4; which would certainly see them change places, essentially a straight swap.

Alternatively, because its a WC, the home ground advantage rule might not apply. If that is the case then it would be a little less, approximately ±2.7 or so, which would still see them change places but be closer together after the switch.

Should all the factors be in play (home, WC etc...) and NZ win, it should see a ±0.7 odd shift for each team, respectively. Putting NZ back over 91 and aus back down to 86, but no change in the ratings.

Interestingly, because of all the factors in play, a Draw would essentially even them up, with NZ being marginally ahead of the Australians. Not that I think that can happen at the world cup.

If NZ get through and either France or Wales beat them, they'll see a approximately a ±4 point change. I thought it would be more, but the system seems to cap out at that point.

 

[No4918]

Wales up to 4th and exactly 4 points behind us. So if they go on to win they could claim #2?

 

[matty_k]

New Zealanders have been given some advice for this week.
I'm not sure if this is real or not.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10758159

Keep calm, trust in the All Blacks and block all calls from Australia. That's the advice being given before this weekend's ultimate transtasman battle, the Rugby World Cup semifinal match between the All Blacks and the Wallabies.

Sports psychologist Jane Magnusson said it was understandable that some Kiwis would be feeling the heat because of cross-Tasman rivalry and the effects of an Australian upset.

"Usually it would be just another semifinal or rugby game," she said.

"But it probably does put it in a different psychological realm because it's against Australia."

Dr Magnusson, who is also a senior lecturer at the University of Auckland's Sport and Exercise Science Department, said it would be hard for Kiwis to handle losing to the Wallabies, but there was nothing more to do except back the team and trust in them.

"If we lose, are we going to blame it on the fact that we didn't have Dan Carter?


"The game is in the hands of the All Blacks. What we need to do is just to get behind the ABs and to trust them to do the job. There's no need to stress out if you're not playing a role in the game."

South Auckland clinical psychologist Barry Kirker said people also needed to mentally prepare themselves for a "shock" loss.

"If they can just start thinking about the possibility that New Zealand might lose. A lot of people say they don't want to think that they might lose because it'll curse them, but it's the opposite. They should consider that it might happen.

"They could start writing down the reasons why they might or might not win."

Mr Kirker said images of a pained first five Colin Slade during the All Blacks-Argentina match on Sunday night did not help.

If the All Blacks lost, it would hurt for a few days, so "maybe be careful not to get aggro."

Meanwhile the Wait-of-a-Nation website is already bringing comfort to Kiwi fans.

The site was set up by Kiwi expat Eammon Conaghan to help New Zealanders deal with the fear of the All Blacks making another early exit from the Rugby World Cup.

The website has posted tips that have apparently worked in the past.

After Dan Carter's somewhat tragic exit from the tournament last week, a message appeared on the site saying: "Okay, bring it in, New Zealand. It's time for a big hug.

"Whatever happens now, New Zealand, we've already faced our worst fear at this World Cup - well, second worst.

"At least now we can push on without the constant chorus of people asking what would happen if Carter was injured."

One person responded by saying: "I too am relieved. No more stressing about Carter getting injured. Begone suspense. Hello numbing resignation."

THE RECIPE

* Stay calm.

* Trust and believe in the team.

* Block incoming calls starting with +61.

* Mentally prepare for an upset.

 

[Braveheart81]

A google search indicates that both psychologists quoted in the article are real people.

What a bunch of basket cases.

 

[08umema]

A google search indicates that both psychologists quoted in the article are real people.

What a bunch of basket cases.

Sounds like they think they have lost already. The game hasn't been played yet!! Interested to see how Cruden will perform.

 

[Ruggo]

Man this has and is going to be a bloody tense week. I hope the players nerves are not as shot as mine are.

 

[BPC]

Good man James, we have a front row you can only dream of:yay

I would be happy to clone Jamie Roberts as well.

 

[SaderCheif]

New Zealanders have been given some advice for this week.
I'm not sure if this is real or not.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10758159

Clearly taking the piss.

 

[Dan54]

Clearly taking the piss.

Shh don't tell them Cheif, let them actually believe that everyone is in counselling, lol. I imagine there are one or two worried bods about, I mean if yoi take QC (Quade Cooper) out of Wallabies,then Berrick, you would get a touch of nervousness, but hardly anyone needing a pyscologists.

 

[James Buchanan]

Wales up to 4th and exactly 4 points behind us. So if they go on to win they could claim #2?

Well, from the France/Wales game, they'd gain about 1.8.

That'd take them to 85.

Against Australia, they'd be at an approx 5.6 deficit and gain another 3 points if they win to take them to 88.. which should be enough to take first actually (given the Wobs would lose 3 from their approx 90.5) unless the ABs also won the the 3/4 playoff; which might or might not see them get enough to get over Wales, it would be close.

Against NZ it would be an approx 9 deficit factoring in home ground. That would see an approx 3.8 point shift... which would result in Wales taking first pretty clearly.

Just looking at France, they'd be in a relatively similar position; since they'd gain approx 6 points by winning all the way. Which combined with the other teams losing points would redistribute things mostly in their way, depending on the 3/4 playoff.

All in all, whichever team wins the WC has a very good chance of being World #1 at the end of it.

 

[BPC]

Beale gives us one or two pieces of brilliant running per game where as barnes gives us 80 minutes of improved defense, a better kicking game and overall organisation.

The brilliant runs are (arguably) balanced or at least mitigated by the gawdawful chip-kicks.