The reason I am pessimistic for the Reds is the loss of Horwill, who is the best lock in Aus and head and shoulders better than his replacement, and Genia, who is the best halfback in Aus and head and shoulders better than his replacement.
Combine that with the loss of the backline defensive lynchpin (A. Finger), and the loss of two matchday flankers (Samo and Beau Robinson), plus the loss of the 4th string lock (McDuling) who would've come into the 22 for Horwill, plus prop Daley and things are looking not great from the start.
There's not much difference between the Tahs and Reds normally, but with those losses the Reds will struggle. The same went last week and why I tipped the Brumbies to beat the Reds then too.
The Tahs, in comparison, have lost Barnes and Horne and Betham. (And Turner?) Whilst they are losses, they are not nearly as integral to the team as Horwill and Genia are to the Reds and the Tahs have covered those losses better.
The two advantages the Reds do have is that they have a real game under their belt and they are playing at home. I am hopeful that this will be enough to get them over the line in my heart, but my head says the Tahs in a close one.