Reds 2018

[Slim 293]

we have effectively picked a back three that screams "run it!".

Don't worry, Aidan Toua will do plenty of kicking.......... especially when he shouldn't.

 

[USARugger]

Yeah experience helps. We had a young team in 2011 but the value we gained from the likes of Beau Robinson, Radike, Adam Wallace-Harrison and Guy Shepherdson was pretty invaluable.


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Even the younger guys by 2011 had a few solid Super seasons under their belt as a group - Lance would have been the greenest guy in the starting XV for most of that season, I believe. This group feels young even compared to the 2011 squad.

 

[Scoey]

Don't worry, Aidan Toua will do plenty of kicking.... especially when he shouldn't.

Oh goodie! Seriously but there was a ton of kicking in the Fiji trial in instances where we should've hung onto the ball. Little grubbers in behind the line and little chips over the top when we had one on ones out wide. I really hope that was a free licence given for the trial only. We do that in Super Rugby proper and we'll get smashed.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Don't worry, Aidan Toua will do plenty of kicking.... especially when he shouldn't.

As is Tradition.

I mean maybe we'll not be kicking it as Scoey points out the back 3 (hopefully) won't ever kick it, because they really shouldn't. But Lance, Nabuli, and Toua have had virtually zero game time nor any game time with the squad, yet Daugunu, Stewart etc have had all off season and NRC playing with Tuttle, DP, Kerevi (in trials). Surely that continuity (or lack of) should count for something. Like I said previously, I can understand if you are dumping Quade for the future in Hamish Stewart and maybe they are bringing him on slowly, we'll only see that in future weeks. But if we are dumping Quade for Jono Lance, when he's only on a one year contract, we are building towards a future where the Reds are about as good as Ballymore is at the moment.

Pick you best team you can, every week. Always have 'future' players in the squad so they can develop in a professional environment, but they start only when they have earned a position in the best team.

I do agree you pick your best team every week, but to my mind a part of that best team has to include is the guy going to be around next season, is the guy going to be able to contribute to the team in 3 seasons time. Particularly with a team in the situation like the Reds are in. Looking at the draw, I think the absolute best we can expect is about 10 wins maybe a bunch of bonus points. Given that we might if everything goes our way, just scrape into finals (and I'm normally considered super optimistic). Say we play finals we are likely going up against the conference winners likely Crusaders/Hurricanes, Lions, or Brumbies/Waratahs/Rebels. Let's say we get lucky and have the fellow Aussie conference team and we get up on the day; at best we make it to semi-finals and get mauled by the Lions, Crusaders, Hurricanes.
So in our equation for who our best team is, surely the weighting we should give to winning now should be less than a team like the Crusaders or Lions because they have a chance to actually win now (in the case of the Lions their window is only going to last a season or two).

I'm not saying we should pick all the young guys for every game and only young guys. However where the difference is marginal or non-existent, the guy who can help you next year and the year after is obviously the better choice.
Let's pretend for a second that in terms of ability and combinations etc. Stewart and Lance are identical (I think many agree they are indeed very close), it's an obvious decision you should select Stewart because he's likely to be playing for the club for the next 3/5/10 seasons. Now if it was for a finals game or something like that (maybe even the first game of the season to get you off to a good start) you might select Lance because of that experience but assuming they are identical you don't pick Lance the whole season.

Another good example to think about is with Douglas, what do we gain having Douglas coming off the bench when we could be discovering another Rodda in Blyth or Hockings, I'm not saying there isn't reason to bring Douglas off the bench particularly for the first game you want to get off to a good start and I do agree Douglas is the most likely to give you that right now. But at some point in our season (likely around game 3 or 4) we'll need to consider bringing in those young guys off the bench. Rodda is a Wallaby, probably 3rd or 4th choice at his position too. He wasn't starting this time last year, so the idea that it's so easy to identify that tallent without some kind of baptism of fire is dangerous at best.

Like it or not, the Reds are in a rebuilding mode at the moment, that's why we have dumped Quade and likely won't chase Karmichael. Last year was really a last gasp to try to (to borrow some basketball terms) Win Now, it's pretty obvious we don't have the pieces for that right now. So now we are in a rebuilding phase, we are trying to develop our pieces, we are trying to turn Liam Wright into George Smith for example.
There have been some selections that have been brilliant from that perspective Perese (in the past), BPA & Mafi, Tuttle, Paua'aua. I am just concerned that we could fall into the trap of trying to win now, when we don't have the cattell to really win now; leaving Stewart, and Daugunu out of the starting side for guys who haven't played ANY rugby together is worrying. Lance I understand, he had a good game against Fiji by the end of that first 10 minutes I was fully expecting him to be starting, but Toua showed nothing except he still can't kick consistently and would have been a brilliant place for the other of Lance/Stewart to allow us to develop our future while remaining relevant for now.

I would point out that in the NBA & NFL that have league revenue comparable to countries. They almost never take the approach that you always put your best team out there for every game. Given the amount of investment, time and energy they put into things like that do you really think we should be completely ignoring this.

 

[RugbyReg]

Even the younger guys by 2011 had a few solid Super seasons under their belt as a group - Lance would have been the greenest guy in the starting XV for most of that season, I believe. This group feels young even compared to the 2011 squad.

he was definitely the greenest in the final. He'd only made his debut 3 games earlier.

 

[dru]

Z-C

You start by suggesting we could win 10 games, then suggest this is not the season for “win now”.

If we win 10 games I will truly be happy to announce Brad as the new messiah. Right up there with Linc. ;-)

 

[Ignoto]

For those shocked at Ready's exclusion, did he play at all on the second day of the 10's? I don't recall seeing him on the pitch, so perhaps his fitness levels aren't at what Thorn expects or requires?

 

[Zero_Cool]

Z-C

You start by suggesting we could win 10 games, then suggest this is not the season for “win now”.

If we win 10 games I will truly be happy to announce Brad as the new messiah. Right up there with Linc. ;-)

I didn't say we are likely to win 10 games, I said absolutely best case we win 10 games. I think if absolutely everything goes right for us and we catch a few teams napping, and get lucking in a few games we could win 10 games. I think it's far more likely we win between 4 and 6 games, I think 8 is being quite optimistic and counting on us catching a few teams napping.

I think there are games we should win are 4: 2@Rebs, 4-Bulls, 13@Sunwolves, 19-Sunwolves.

Games we are a real chance to win 3: 3-Brumbies, 15-Highlanders, 16-Waratahs.

And games we are an outside chance to win 3: 5@Jaguars, 9@Waratahs, 18-Rebs.

Games we aren't at all likely to win 5: 6@Stormers, 10-Chiefs, 11-Lions, 14@Hurricanes, 17@Blues.

To win 10 games we would need to win all our 'should win', all our 'chance to win' and all our 'outside chance' games. Over the course of the 16 games some teams are going to lose games they shouldn't and win games they should, but I think between 4 and 8 for us is what is most likely, 10 is if we have a Mighty Ducks season.


A few notes:
The whole Australian Conference has really had so much upheaval this season it's almost impossible to predict, awkwardly the Reds have had some of the least changes of any of the Aussie Clubs; although we didn't really pick up any of the spoils of the parting out of the Force. Also I'm half expecting Melbourne to go after Quade once they prove to themselves JD isn't going to cut it as a Super Rugby fly half (at least not for the way that backline is going to have to play).

• Rd2: Rebels with all their changes and a new coach and likely a number of new systems are as vulnerable as they'll be.
• Rd3: Brumbies without Pocock - they'll really struggle to fill that hole.
• Rd5: I initially had this in the real chance erroneously thinking they had the bulls the week before but they are hosting the Waratahs (lucky bastards!).
• Rd6: We aren't beating the Stormers who will have been waiting for us after facing the Blues.
• Rd8: I didn't list this because I don't think we are an outside chance, but I also don't think we aren't likely to win, should be right around when Po comes back, perhaps that will have an impact.
• Rd9: The Waratahs have a very tough start to the season so may have imploded by this point, if they do poorly to start the season I can see Gibson being fired by round 5, also they are in Tokyo the week before I would expect the Sunwolves to target this game giving another very ripe coach sacking opportunity.
• Rd18: The Rebs could go either way between a real chance and aren't likely, being that we are hosting them, and they could be shit.

 

[Derpus]

^^^Brumbies actually won't struggle to fill that hole i shouldn't think. They have some enviable backrow stocks.

 

[TOCC]

Yes there is plenty to be pessimistic about, but one thing I am certainly looking forward to is the impact which Thorn and the coaching team have on the playing group, right down to the new S&C department and how those standards flow through to the players. I will be nothing but disappointed if they Reds aren't competing and coming home strong at 75mins, they may not be as talented or experienced as the opposition, but they have no excuse not to be as fit or as hungry.

 

[Tomikin]

• Rd3: Brumbies without Pocock - they'll really struggle to fill that hole.

Like last season ? While I love Fardy Alcock and Smiler, I reckon Valetini Cusack and Naisirani are going to cause a whole bunch of trouble for a whole bunch of teams..Poey will be back, but I would be disappointed if we dont beat the Red's in round 3.

 

[emuarse]

This team is pretty much as expected, I don't consider BPA over Ready and Mafi as a safe selection, if anything I think reverting back to Ready would have being the safe choice.

Maybe Ready has an injury niggle?

 

[USARugger]

I messed up, guys. Recently moved to the West Coast and am headed back East for the next week - screwed up the times in my head and am going to be airborne during the game

Cheer on the boys for me please

 

[Ash]

Don't worry, you only missed a few dumb cards from the Reds, both of which should've been Red I thought.

I started following the Sixers a little time ago, so at least I am enjoying something this year!

 

[Ash]

Going to be snarky here, but I don't like Thorn as a coach. I don't think he has the nuance (or to be blunt, 3 combined Brad Thorns could not get close to Mensa), I don't think he has the man management skills, I don't think he has the media skills. The latter is not a killer, but the first two are. Loved him as a player, detest him as a coach. I keep thinking back to Eddie Jones as Reds coach, when he didn't have the man management skills and what happened.

There's only so much you can get from instilling a culture of fear and hard work.

I hate player shaming, but telling your new team that they should be ashamed of themselves for last year's effort via the media? Not cool. How about the coaching staff taking some responsibility for that, of which Thorn was one?

I actually hope the guy proves me wrong, but for me this year is already in the toilet. Again.

 

[spud]

Tough performance tonight, although the boys did fight hard it just wasn't good enough. Great to see the young boys on debut have a crack. Tate Mcdermott and Liam Wright both played exceptionally when given their chance. Hopefully, next week will be a little better.

 

[Zero_Cool]

I don't know how Hamish Stewart doesn't get on at all during that game. Lance was truly awful. Toua was alright, but showed his not a winger not a fullback. Nabuli was decent but not overly good.

I do like that Thron for the most part didn't bring in his substitutions early to compensate for the Higgers card. Although I think given what Lance showed us Stewart should have been brought in at halftime; if nothing else it's a waste to have Stewart sitting on the bench.

Positives to consider

• Nothing really can be said when your capitan is given a Red Card 10 minutes in (other than we were fucking retarded)
• The Scum even a man down as fucking impressive, likely will be the best scrum in Australia!
• Lineout was very good.
• Korczyk showed he can get over the ball and has the most motor in Super Rugby.
• Paia'aua was very good in both attack and defence, has gotta be in the Wallabies Squad.
• Samu really stepped up.

Some not so good things

• Timu was fairly anonymous maybe we'll see Wright start next week?
• Rodda was a week or two underdone.
• Douglass should be dropped from the 23.
• Toua can't kick consistently, probably should be moved to the wing.
• Quade > Stewart > Lance, if we aren't going to start Quade, we have got to be starting Stewart. Also what the fuck did Stewart do to not find his way onto the field at some point. IMO Lance should have been pulled at half time, or at least 60.
• BPA was average (not bad).

It was maybe indicated after the game that Quade and/or Hunt might end up playing for another team (maybe another Super team). Not sure but definitely getting the vibe Cheika is working on something.

 

[new recruit_ brisbane]

Tough performance tonight, although the boys did fight hard it just wasn't good enough. Great to see the young boys on debut have a crack. Tate Mcdermott and Liam Wright both played exceptionally when given their chance. Hopefully, next week will be a little better.

Sorry but McDermott did not play exceptionally.... made one good step and pass. But his service and work around the base was ordinary - admittedly behind a beaten and tiring pack. CFS, Tua (in patches), Lance and Korczyk can all hold their heads up.
Long Long season ahead.............

 

[Simon.]

I thought BPA was impressive - maybe not in the loose but with solid defence and good involvement.

JP Smith has to be pushing Slipper for the 1 jersey. Basically brings Slipper's game with dominant breakdown presence.

Also liking what CFS brought. We know he's always had the talent but previously he's lacked the will, he looked solid this game.

Toua kicked like we thought he would, but the rest of his game was very good. If he plays like that he'll be a serviceable FB. The fact Stewart didn't get on though suggests to me that Thorn may have him designs on starting him at 15.

 

[dru]

@Z-C

Find myself yet again addressing your posts as they are the most interesting. But as happens I dont completely agree.

Set piece went to Rebels. There was some really dumb stuff don in the line out. The scrum is a bit different - but match to Stiles. I suspect that when props, especially THPs talk about scrummaging being "technical" - that is the issue with the current rules. And we didn 't do good enough.

Korczyk, my favourite player after we decided to nobble Quade - he has plenty to do before he is a 7. he can do it, but it will take at least this season. And I doubt he will ever be a LFG.

Line out was shite.

DP: well he drives this team. In the way that Quade did in the past. Our fortunes are with DP. That is not a bad place to be. NOTE: our back line strength is NOT Kerevi, it is DP.

Can't drop Douglas. We are simply too green and the line out is shite. Can improve quickly but it needs to.