Rebels V Lions, Round 5, Friday 20 March @ AAMI Park

[Brumby Runner]

Our Scrum held up pretty well so far this year, not as worried about the Lions scrum. Yes, it will be strong, but no way the Lions will win by 30 points.

KevinO, you really need to pay more attention to the way our SA friends tip the game results. In most cases at least, the more they tip one team to win by, the more they expect the other to win.

 

[KevinO]

^^^^^See it would of helped if I had cared about any of the South African games so far before this round. They have always clashed with the 6 Nations so I can honestly say I have not seen much.

But my rough calculations are:

Rebels beat the Saders by : 10
Saders beat the Lions by : 28
Equals : 38
x2 home ground advantage: 76

So going with Rebels to score a point a minute, sounds realistic.
Still sticking with not tipping the Rebels on Superbru.

 

[oztimmay]

OK, so now we got all the flirting and baiting out of the way, time to talk match ups.

Since I don't follow saffa rugby that closely there is only one or two names that I even remotely recognize in that team, and even still I don't ever recall them being a Bok. They might have beaten the Blues in NZ, but they they their arse handed to them by a dominant Crusaders pack (albeit with a few ABs back). Fair to say the SA team bring a tough front row, but the way our front row (starting and bench) are playing we can certainly meet that challenge. If they want to just kick to touch all day then we will naturally adopt more of a running game and score tries.

So I would predict a tough forwards battle with our backrow to outclass the opposition. This should hopefully set up clean ball for the back to run it and score some meat. I've heard varying predictions of rain and warmth for Friday, so will reserve score prediction until then.

 

[BDA]

Cant say I'm very familiar with the Lions line-up. Not sure I could name any of their forwards, but their pack has certainly impressed given they don't boast any big name players or boks (as far as I can recall).

I think Boshoff suits their style of rugby very well. They'll centre their game this weekend around their scrum no doubt and rely on Boshoff to keep the score board ticking over.

Their centre pairing is decent to (Jantjies/Mapoe). This game could be close.

I'd have to go with the Rebels to notch up another win.

 

[elementfreak]

Warren Whitley (?) will be immense, he is usually everywhere if fantasy points are anything to go by. Elton Janties is actually playing quite well, although I am not sure how he will go at 12, from what I remember his tackling isn't the best so sending some big forwards down the 12 channel will be good.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'll be interested to see how Armand van der Merwe goes starting for the Lions this week.

He came on in the last 15 minutes against the Crusaders and was absolutely dynamic. Every time he touched the ball he broke through tackles. He was credited with 7 runs, 60 run metres, 3 line breaks and 4 broken tackles in that time.

 

[Blue]

^^^^^See it would of helped if I had cared about any of the South African games so far before this round. They have always clashed with the 6 Nations so I can honestly say I have not seen much.

But my rough calculations are:

Rebels beat the Saders by : 10
Saders beat the Lions by : 28
Equals : 38
x2 home ground advantage: 76

So going with Rebels to score a point a minute, sounds realistic.
Still sticking with not tipping the Rebels on Superbru.

I assume that without fail you apply this logic to all your tipping.

Boy, you must clean up hen it comes to fantasy.

On a serious note I'd say the Rebels will win but it will not be easy. The Lions will turn it into a scrap. It's their best chance. They have picked an unusual backline.

 

[Blue]

OK, so now we got all the flirting and baiting out of the way, time to talk match ups.

Since I don't follow saffa rugby that closely there is only one or two names that I even remotely recognize in that team, and even still I don't ever recall them being a Bok. They might have beaten the Blues in NZ, but they they their arse handed to them by a dominant Crusaders pack (albeit with a few ABs back). Fair to say the SA team bring a tough front row, but the way our front row (starting and bench) are playing we can certainly meet that challenge. If they want to just kick to touch all day then we will naturally adopt more of a running game and score tries.

So I would predict a tough forwards battle with our backrow to outclass the opposition. This should hopefully set up clean ball for the back to run it and score some meat. I've heard varying predictions of rain and warmth for Friday, so will reserve score prediction until then.

I think the Lions back row is more balanced as a unit. They don't have star talent but the three guys compliment each other very well.

The Lions problems have come when the ball leaves the 9's hands. They have completely changed the back line in what seems a desperate attempt at mnaking something happen.

 

[Blue]

I'll be interested to see how Armand van der Merwe goes starting for the Lions this week.

He came on in the last 15 minutes against the Crusaders and was absolutely dynamic. Every time he touched the ball he broke through tackles. He was credited with 7 runs, 60 run metres, 3 line breaks and 4 broken tackles in that time.

Wow hoe physical was that guy? Never seen him before but can't wait to see more of him.

 

[swingpass]

Rebels make on change only Jack D out and Placid in

MAR 19, 2015
PLACID TO DEBUT AGAINST THE LIONS


RaboDirect Rebels squad to face Lions, 7:30pm (AEDT) Friday March 20th, AAMI Park
1. Toby Smith (Rebel #60, 17 Rebels Caps)
2. Pat Leafa (Rebel #57, 22 Rebels Caps)
3. Laurie Weeks (Rebel #19, 57 Rebels Caps)
4. Luke Jones (Rebel #32, 50 Rebels Caps)
5. Lopeti Timani (Rebel #69, 6 Rebels Caps)
6. Sean McMahon (Rebel #62, 17 Rebels Caps)
7. Scott Fuglistaller (Rebel #45, 36 Rebels Caps)
8. Scott Higginbotham (Rebel #46, 37 Rebels Caps, Captain)
9. Nic Stirzaker (Rebel #38, 27 Rebels Caps)
10. Mike Harris (Rebel #76, 4 Rebels Caps)
11. Tom English (Rebel #50, 30 Rebels Caps)
12. Mitch Inman (Rebel #35, 48 Rebels Caps)
13. Tamati Ellison (Rebel #62, 19 Rebels Caps)
14. Dom Shipperley (Rebel #75, 4 Rebels Caps)
15. Jonah Placid (0 Rebels Caps)*
Reserves:
16. Tom Sexton (0 Rebels Caps)#
17. Cruze Ah-Nau (Rebel #59, 15 Rebels Caps)
18. Paul Alo-Emile (Rebel #44, 39 Rebels Caps)
19. Steve Cummins (Rebel #79, 1 Rebels Cap)
20. Colby Fainga’a (Rebel #65, 19 Rebels Caps)
21. Luke Burgess (Rebel #56, 20 Rebels Caps)
22. Bryce Hegarty (Rebel #54, 25 Rebels Caps)
23. Sefanaia Naivalu (Rebel #77, 4 Rebels Caps)

 

[KevinO]

Interesting

You think Hegarty would have started with Placid on the bench. Will be good to see what Placid can do.

This must be English's last chance to start impressing, hopefully Kingston has a run for Powerhouse and scores some try's this weekend.

 

[Brumby Runner]

So, Jonah won't be making an appearance at the U20s? I'm pretty sure I saw his name in the Barbarians'side.

 

[Dumbledore]

Exciting to see that Jonah is getting a run. He flashed serious potential at times in the NRC, and then sometimes forgot he was playing big kids rugby and refused to pass.

English has played three really bad games in a row now. He's not a liability, more that he's invisible. Sefa is virtually doubling, if not tripling, his output in about a quarter of the game time. He's actually making things happen as well.

I just don't believe at this point that English offers more than Sefa or Veainu, let alone Crawford.

 

[oztimmay]

The only logic I can consider for starting Jonah over Crumbs is the utility that Crumbs brings, i.e. he can play the back-up role at both 10 and 15. Jonah is only limited to 15 and considering this is his first start they might want to stat him in his natural position. Having said that, I think Crumbs can feel a little hard-done by and I do hope that Jonah has a cracker of a game. He's certainly going to be tested under the high ball. I guess that this is a relatively safe game to debut a rookie, although I always cringe at the thought of a safe game (Force match over in Perth still sits in my mind)

All agree with you on the English front; this has got to be his last chance before changes are made. Sefa has been great off the bench and he;s bound to get more game time and a well-deserved 11 on his back soon.

Glad Timani passed the concussion test and will take his place in the team. Thin we're in for a wet night (if current outside conditions are anything to go by) and it's going to be a slow, grinding forwards style game.

 

[Scooter]

A few milestones for Rebels players this week:
Mike Harris and Dom Shipperley both playing their 50th Super Rugby match.
Luke Jones playing his 50th Super Rugby match for the Rebels (last week was his 50th Rebels cap)
Jonah Placid plays his first Super Rugby match for the Rebels.
Tom Sexton potential Super Rugby debut. (Surprised Sexton and Whittaker haven't had more of a go off the bench Pat almost an 80 minute hooker. Sexton was quite good for Rising).

Good luck to all players having milestones.

 

[Scooter]

*N.B.: Harris and Shipperley are playing 50th game according to Rebels. According to Fox Sports website Harris has already played 51 games and Shipperley has already played 50 games.

 

[baz]

Maybe they counted the Reds v Wales game? Also putting a young inexperienced running 15 up against a kick and defend style team surprises me. Clearly Placid is a talented athlete but being a 10/15, Hegarty would be my choice to defuse Lions kicking game
Lets hope I'm wrong.....

 

[daz]

Ok, heading home to get ready for the game.

I have nothing to add of any value what-so-ever, except this:

Rebels by 15.

 

[KevinO]

The Rebels should take this one easily, I am not even having a punt on a try scorer as the odds are all not worth it.

 

[Dumbledore]

Can't get to this, if anyone could give some vaguely narrative updates that would be awesome. Who's going well, tactics, momentum etc.