Rebels 2013

[en_force_er]

Well, since a staggering 1 in 10 people believe the world is going to end in December 2012, maybe we should wait to see if there actually is a 2013 to predict about

But since I am in the group of 9, I will go out on a limb and say that the Rebels will finish top 3 in the Oz conference, below the Reds (2nd) and the Brumbies (1st). No finals, but a much better year.

I also predict the gobby AFL-type bloke who sits in front of me will get told to pull his head in and learn the rules (maybe he won't renew his membership. Ah, a dream to hold onto!)

I also predict that Kurtley and JOC (James O'Connor) will actually play consecutive games together for a change.

1 in 10? Were these stats done in the US bible belt?

I think your estimations are fair. In my uneducated opinion Beale and JOC (James O'Connor)'s injury heavy 2012 can be party blamed on an over packed 2011, hopefully they have a nice off season and are ready to rip into 2013. I mean, how many 21-23 years olds miss preseason games through injury?

 

[TOCC]

its a fact that 75% of all facts are made up

 

[daz]

1 in 10? Were these stats done in the US bible belt?

I read that in a newspaper article somewhere, about the Mayan calendar or something. I actually think you just need to poll any office worker at 8am on a Monday morning. The result will be the same but it would be a hope, rather than a belief.

I think your estimations are fair. In my uneducated opinion Beale and JOC (James O'Connor)'s injury heavy 2012 can be party blamed on an over packed 2011, hopefully they have a nice off season and are ready to rip into 2013. I mean, how many 21-23 years olds miss preseason games through injury?

The key for me is the Rebs forwards. We have a cracking backline but are very light up front. I also really want to see our attacking lineouts perform much better. How many times did Mark G put us within 5 of the try line only for Ged or Adam to cough up the chance?

And personally, I have a deep hope that Mitch Inman will really come into this team in 2013. He had a consistent 2012, but now the Morty shadow is lifted and he had a taste of Wallaby training last month. I expect big things from him in 2013.

Oh, another thing. Let's give young Stirzaker a big crack next year. I really rate this kid and it would not surprise me one bit to see him rocket up the pecking order above Phipps and Kingi.

 

[jermano]

I had a theory for most of 2012 that the Rebels seemed to miss the opening 15 - 20 minutes of the game. It was not always the case but...


Rnd 2 Rebels 19-35 Tahs
1 try to the Tahs 11 mins


Rnd 4 Rebels 26 – 33 Cheetahs
2 tries to the Cheetahs in the first 10 mins


Rnd 8 Brumbies 37 – 6 Rebels
2 tries to the Brumbies in the first 10 mins


Rnd 9 Tahs 30 – 21 Rebels
Tahs 1st minute try


Rnd 11 rebels 35 – 41 Bulls
Bulls 2 tries first 20 mins (Rebels did the same)


Rnd 14 Hurricanes 66 – 24 Rebels

Canes 2 tries first 20 mins and THEN it went pair shaped


Rnd 17 Lions 37 – 32 Rebels
2 tries to the Lions in the first 10 mins

Take into account this is only tries, round 15 against the Brumbies we were 9 points behind in the first 10 mins due to penalties (I cannot find info on this to accurately give times as above with tries. I remember this as i was in attendance complaining)
Don't know what can be said in relation to 2013 but to win more games and to make the finals the Rebels need to start by playing the full 80 minutes.

(All info here is from http://wwos.ninemsn.com.au/ and i am relying on them for accuracy. My apologies if i am wrong)

 

[Deputy Van Halen]

Nice stats there, I did notice that rebels were often playing catch up in the games they narrowly lost this year. It's evident that the rebels have what it takes to mix it with the best when they play a full and focussed 80, case in point; that Crusaders game. It's just a matter of doing that consistently and away from home, that will be the big challenge again this year.

I'm hoping a solid settled pre-season with less injuries to the big names and a more stable roster will yield better results. I think finals is an unreasonable expectation (though not impossible) but I would be very disappointed if they didn't finish around 7-10th place.

I too expect bigger things out of Ranga O'Connor and Mitch Inman this year, the back line looks very promising. I think Pyle and Neville will again improve but probably be picked behind Timani and Simmons again no matter what they do as long as Dingo is in charge. Hooker is a real worry though, we don't need brilliance, just some consistency to stabilise the line out.

Is it time to have loose forward discussion? Are we boned without a fetcher? I personally think Australia puts too much emphasis on having a fetching number 7, they can't all be Pocock's or Gill's. If we don't have one then I like the RSA, particularity the sharks style of back row, 3 big ball running forwards.

I think it's fairly safe to say that Saffy won't be starting next year, call me crazy, but what about moving Delve to 7? If you accept that your 7 won't be a fetcher, I like the idea of having a 7 that's involved at every ruck and makes a massive amount of tackles, that's Delve already. That way you could play Jones and 6 and Higgs at 8, which appears to be the direction he's going with the Reds and now the Wallabies. It won't happen, but I think it would be a real shame to bench a player of Jones' quality. It would also give 4+ genuine line out options too.

 

[daz]

Nice stats jermano. I agree that there is a tendancy for the boys to take some time to realise the game has started. By then they are 14 points down and playing catchup all day.

It would be good to also look at how often the Rebels concede a try after scoring one. I sense a trend where they get all excited after crossing the line and some of the better teams get it back pretty quickly after the restart. That could just be my selective memory though.

Not adverse to talking about Delve at 7. I think he is a better 8 but I can see the argument to make an out of the box move. Big question is where do we see Higgers in the 6-8 channel? Are we talking about Higgers at 8 because Jones is only able to play 6?

 

[elementfreak]

Good for the Reds as well. I see on the Reds website the goal is for 40,000 members. That's massive!

I recall the Tahs release theirs a bit later. Last year was around Sept/Oct.

Do you think they will get 40k after their year this year?

 

[Ash]

I'm weighing into the debate a bit late, but I think Jones should be off the bench.

I don't buy the whole "put your best 15 on the park, disregard team balance" argument. You need an on-baller on 7, whether that is a fetcher, or linkman, or whatever, you can't play a typical 8 or 6 there and expect to go well week in, week out. Especially if there's Higgers playing loose in the same backrow, you want a fast, fit guy who will make up for the short fall you'll get from a loose Higgers, and generally this isn't the coverage you can expect from a 6 or 8.

Luke Jones is still a young guy, and still is short of his development. Let him start mostly from the bench, and don't worry as he'll get plenty of time from injuries and rotation. You'd expect that he'd probably end up starting nearly half the games anyway from injury/rotation alone, assuming he's not injured. Honestly, the guy has potential, but he's currently not at the level where you make other sacrifices for him to start.

Every successful team over the fast few years has either had a fetcher, a linkman or some sort of hybrid (e.g. Latimer) playing 7.

The bigger question is who the Rebels will pick up to play 7 to balance the remaining backrow of Higgers, Delve, or Jones. I can see Saffy, for instance, potentially working, if he's available.

 

[Ash]

Incidentally, it's doing a disservice to the Sharks backrow to merely call them big, ball running back rowers. I would argue that Keegan Daniel, for instance, is much more (and isn't that big, anyway).

 

[Joe Mac]

Unless he's a man that has afternoons and Saturday mornings free and is keen to coach.

Starting a new job so probably not available initially for afternoons, but certainly free to assist Saturday mornings if that helps?

 

[Badger]

Do you think they will get 40k after their year this year?

I don't know. Per their website, the Reds had 32,640 in 2012. There will probably be some attrition of those, but can't fault them for giving it a go. Perhaps the chance to secure tickets to Lions tour matches as part of a 2013 membership could help.

I'm a Tahs ticket holder and I reckon they would be happy with half that.

 

[Braveheart81]

I don't know. But can't fault them for giving it a go. I'm a Tahs ticket holder and I reckon they would be happy with half that.

Next year, we might have to count the 4,287 residents of Waratah, NSW (in Newcastle) as members to bolster our numbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waratah,_New_South_Wales

 

[kronic]

We unofficially have 5,574,500 members.

 

[qwerty51]

just on that, why are you the Melbourne Rebels and not Victorian Rebels?

 

[Deputy Van Halen]

I'm weighing into the debate a bit late, but I think Jones should be off the bench.

I don't buy the whole "put your best 15 on the park, disregard team balance" argument. You need an on-baller on 7, whether that is a fetcher, or linkman, or whatever, you can't play a typical 8 or 6 there and expect to go well week in, week out. Especially if there's Higgers playing loose in the same backrow, you want a fast, fit guy who will make up for the short fall you'll get from a loose Higgers, and generally this isn't the coverage you can expect from a 6 or 8.

Luke Jones is still a young guy, and still is short of his development. Let him start mostly from the bench, and don't worry as he'll get plenty of time from injuries and rotation. You'd expect that he'd probably end up starting nearly half the games anyway from injury/rotation alone, assuming he's not injured. Honestly, the guy has potential, but he's currently not at the level where you make other sacrifices for him to start.

Every successful team over the fast few years has either had a fetcher, a linkman or some sort of hybrid (e.g. Latimer) playing 7.

The bigger question is who the Rebels will pick up to play 7 to balance the remaining backrow of Higgers, Delve, or Jones. I can see Saffy, for instance, potentially working, if he's available.

You raise some good points there, I suppose I'm just keen to see Jones live up to his potential, I hadn't really thought about injury time and rotation he'll get some good game time no matter if he starts from the bench. I meant no disservice to the Sharks, probably my favourite non-Aus team because partly because they have such an excellent back row without what you would call a traditional fetcher.

That still does leave a big hole at 7 though, if Saffy does come back it's hard to see him starting straight away again, after such a serious injury there will be fitness and confidence issues, surely he'll be a bench starter at best? With Alcock likely to head to the Force, are there even any 7's available short of looking overseas? Is there a young guy in the squad who could step up?

 

[kronic]

just on that, why are you the Melbourne Rebels and not Victorian Rebels?

I've told this many times: when we won the bid, a few of us emailed Harold Mitchell directly to request this. We received a reply which indicated they (as the group) would consider it.

I assumed it's all about brand retention from the ARC days. I'm not too fussed, anyone with half a clue realizes that it's a provincial competition.

Gives you a few more references when it comes to songs

 

[FiveStarStu]

just on that, why are you the Melbourne Rebels and not Victorian Rebels?

Doesn't sound as nice.

 

[en_force_er]

just on that, why are you the Melbourne Rebels and not Victorian Rebels?

Don't get me started.

They are certainly behaving like the "Victorian" Rebels but they haven't branded themselves as such. Surely a quick survey would have told a well resourced and sucsessful communications firm like Mitchell's that there was little brand value in the "Melbourne" Rebels. Anyway, they've given the brand value since then and I doubt the name will ever change.

They really should have just called us the Rabodirect Rebels, based us in Melb, and been deliberately vauge on our geographical boarders. This would allow us in time to try to gain support from the rugby communities in SA and Tas.

We might in time still try for SA and Tas but I think we'll always be the Melbounre Rebels.

 

[TOCC]

In the defence of the 'Rebels'...

'Melbourne' is marketed as 'Melbourne'.. You rarely see Victoria marketed, just look at the sponsorship logos at the F1, Australian Open, Bledisloes and State of Origins..
In comparison to the other states like QLD and WA.. The QLD Govt generally markets Queensland as a whole rather then just 'Brisbane' or the 'Gold Coast'.

 

[Joe Mac]

With Alcock likely to head to the Force, are there even any 7's available short of looking overseas? Is there a young guy in the squad who could step up?

It has been asked before but, does anyone know whether Jono Jenkins has been considered beyond this forum?

He now has Hooper and McCutcheon in front of him at the Tah's, you would think he and his manager would be the ones knocking down the door at the Rebels... He would really add balance to a Reb's backrow