Lions Tour 2013

[hammertimethere]

Does this means its time to start speculating as to inclusions/exclusions, possible final squads, match 22's (23's?) and starting 15?!!!!!

I'll get the ball rolling shall I

If indeed there is to be an initial 25 strong squad quarantined from June 1 it will likely contain
a probable starting XV (1-15), 1-2 extra props, 1 extra hooker, 2-3 back five forwards, 1 half back, 2-3 utility backs (probably one 10/12 or 10/12/15 playmaker type and one or two centre/back three strike runner types). The article BH posted points out that with 8 or 9 rounds of Super rugby between now and then, there will likely be a large focus on incumbency and "background with the group" (to use some Dingo speak, though last years injury run makes that just about everyone). It will take a display of supreme form for a non-incumbent to kick an incumbent out of that first 25.
So potentially we're looking at (XV plus obvious reserves)
1. Robinson
2. Moore 16. Polota-Nau
3. Kepu or slipper 17. the other one, plus maybe Palmer or Holmes if the 22's are now 23's
4. Horwill (fitness permitting)
5. up for grabs (though i think Deans will take douglas) 18. again up for grabs but I feel like it will be timani
6. Higginbotham
7. Pocock 19. Hooper(though Gill will push, maybe get a squad spot, but would compete with Dennis, jones, MMM etc.)
8. Palu
9. Genia (fitness permitting, if not white gets the nod) 20. White (or Lucas/Phipps, hopefully Lucas, if Genia is crocked)
10. one of Cooper,Lealiifano,To'omua,Beale but my gut says it'll be quade, one more will fill 21, maybe another 24
11. Ioane
12. One of O'connor, McCabe, Lealiifano or Tapuai (my gut says taps)
13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14. one of Mitchell, Tomane, Shipperley or O'connor, another will get jersey 22, probaly one more the 25th spot
15. Beale or Oconnor

So we're nearly certainly looking at (based on history, incumbency and what form we've glimpsed)
Robinson, Slipper, Kepu, Moore, Polota-Nau, Horwill, Douglas, Timani, Higgers, Pocock, Palu, Hooper, Genia, White, Cooper, O'connor, Beale, McCabe, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Ioane as definitely in the 25, with space for 5 more


thoughts?

 

[Braveheart81]

My intention wasn't to start speculation and I definitely think there will be ample changes made due to injuries and form prior to when the protected list is picked but I'd guess:

Props (1-3): Robbo, Alexander, Slipper
Hookers (4-5): Moore, TPN
Locks (6-8): Horwill, Douglas, Pyle/Simmons/Timani
Backrow (9-13): Palu, Pocock, Hooper, Higginbotham, Mowen or Dennis
HB (14): Genia
5/8 (15-18): Cooper, Beale, O'Connor, Lealiifano
Centres (19-21): Tapuai, McCabe, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
Wing (22-24): Ioane, Mitchell, Tomane/Shipperley/Cummins
FB (25): Barnes

That would be my guess on a likely 25 protected players. There will obviously be some changes with players showing irresistable form and definitely some injuries but I think the players picked will be largely based on the consistent 2012 test players plus the injured superstars.

 

[Scott Allen]

Yes, playing with 23 in the test matches.

You've forgotten Alexander - he'll definitely be in the 25.

Think JOC (James O'Connor) will be in the 25, no matter which spot - his goal kicking alone will be vital.

Will need some coverage for Palu, which I think would be Higgers, which would mean needing coverage for #6 (probably Dennis) so can't see how they can carry three #7's.

 

[Scott Allen]

My intention wasn't to start speculation and I definitely think there will be ample changes made due to injuries and form prior to when the protected list is picked but I'd guess:

Props (1-3): Robbo, Alexander, Slipper
Hookers (4-5): Moore, TPN
Locks (6-8): Horwill, Douglas, Pyle/Simmons/Timani
Backrow (9-13): Palu, Pocock, Hooper, Higginbotham, Mowen or Dennis
HB (14): Genia
5/8 (15-18): Cooper, Beale, O'Connor, Lealiifano
Centres (19-21): Tapuai, McCabe, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
Wing (22-24): Ioane, Mitchell, Tomane/Shipperley/Cummins
FB (25): Barnes

That would be my guess on a likely 25 protected players. There will obviously be some changes with players showing irresistable form and definitely some injuries but I think the players picked will be largely based on the consistent 2012 test players plus the injured superstars.

We'll have to have two halfbacks in the 25, particularly with Genia coming back from injury.

Will need another prop in the 25. Four required on match day.

Therefore would have to drop two other backs out. Reckon that would be McCabe (only given he's not going to play a lot of rugby before the selection is made) and the third winger as Beale and O'Connor provide back three coverage.

 

[Braveheart81]

We'll have to have two halfbacks in the 25, particularly with Genia coming back from injury.

Will need another prop in the 25. Four required on match day.

Therefore would have to drop two other backs out. Reckon that would be McCabe (only given he's not going to play a lot of rugby before the selection is made) and the third winger as Beale and O'Connor provide back three coverage.

That is true. I agree with you that McCabe and Tomane/Shipperley/Cummins would be the likely ones to drop out of that list for White/Phipps and Kepu/Palmer.

 

[Braveheart81]

Personally I think Mogg is the most likely bolter to play on the wing during the Lions Tour. I'd be highly surprised if he was picked at fullback and certainly see him as a wing option. He'd be the fastest player on the field (although having to tackle Visser or North would be a worry).

Providing Barnes has a decent return from injury I think he has the box seat to play fullback. His defence, ability under the high ball and positioning to field kicks will be seen as excellent assets to have in the side at fullback. The biggest thing that I can see changing that is if Cooper makes himself the first choice 10 and Beale is pushed elsewhere in the side.

 

[Bowside]

This is my team at the moment

1. Palmer
2. Moore
3. Robinson
4. Horwill
5. Douglas/Pyle
6. MMM/Higgers
7. Pocock
8. Mowen
9. Genia
10. Cooper
11. Ioane
12. Tapuai
13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14. JOC (James O'Connor)
15. Beale
16. Alexander
17. Hanson
18. Slipper
19. Pyle/Timani
20. Palu/Aeulea
21. Hooper/Gill
22. White
23. Mitchell/Lealifano

It all depends on how Douglas and Horwill go at lineout time. Mowen, MMM and Higgers are all excellent lineout jumpers so if deans plays 2 of them in the backrow it can account for the weakness caused by starting Horwill and Douglas.

I don't think Palu deserves to start at the moment. Palu is not a great player, he is a good player who has periods of great form. Furthermore, he's never really consistently fired in the big games at test level.

I'd start him before Shatz, McCalman, Brown, Dennis and probably also Samo. But I think he is far from a nailed on starter.
TPN in his current form is not "clutch" enough to be a bench option. You either start him or leave him out of the team.

 

[Bowside]

Biggest smokeys for the tests at the moment are Kimlin, Auelua and MMM I reckon.

 

[Bairdy]

Which players would be most likely fast tracked into the 23 and perhaps even the starting XV? Everyone has their favoured players they'd love to see be brought in over another but I don't think many are good enough to be thrown into the deep end against Lions players who no doubt will have international caps and many still with Lions caps. Personally, I could only see Palmer, MMM, White and Lealiifano in the 23 or the whole squad, and it's sort of a longshot with Palmer and MMM because we have guys like Alexander, Kepu and Slipper for TH coverage, and Higginbotham, Dennis (and to some extent), Gill who is jumping more frequently for the Reds.

Time will tell though what Deans does.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Knowing Deans but hoping for better from Deans... I'll go ahead with all the players that you could imagine in the squad
Note - to prevent being called biased, their just in alphabetical team order.
Forwards:
Props:
Ben Alexander, Dan Palmer, James Slipper, Benn Robinson, Sekope Kepu, Paddy Ryan, Pek Cowan
Hookers:
Stephen Moore, Saia Fainga'a, James Hanson, Tatafu Polota-Nau
Locks:
Scott Fardy, Sam Carter, Hugh Pyle, Caderyn Neville, James Horwill, Rob Simmons, Sitaleki Timani, Kane Douglass
Blindsides:
Peter Kimlin, Ben Mowen, Scott Higgenbotham, Ed Quirk, Dave Dennis, Ben McCalman
Opensides:
David Pocock, Liam Gill, Michael Hooper, Matt Hodgson
Eights:
Ben Mowen, Jake Schatz, Radike Samo, Wycliff Palu, Ben McCalman

 

[RoffsChoice]

Backs:
Scrumhalfs:
Nic White, Nick Phipps, Will Genia
Flyhalves:
Christian Lealiifano, Matt To'omua, Kurtley Beale, James O'Connor, Quade Cooper, Berrick Barnes
Wingers:
Joe Tomane, Clyde Rathbone, Cooper Vuna, James O'Connor, Digby Ioane, Dom Shipperly, Drew Mitchell, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Nick Cummins
Inside Centres:
Christian Lealiifano, Pat McCabe, James O'Connor, Ben Tapuai, Mike Harris, Anthony Fainga'a, Berrick Barnes
Outside Centres:
Andrew Smith, Mitch Inman, Anthony Fainga'a, Rob Horne, Adam Ashley-Cooper
Fullbacks:
Jesse Mogg, James O'Connor, Kurtley Beale, Mike Harris, Berrick Barnes, Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper

 

[RoffsChoice]

Likely team for first game
1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau
3. Ben Alexander
4. Kane Douglass
5. James Horwill
6. Scott Higgenbotham
7. David Pocock
8. Wycliff Palu

9. Will Genia
10. Quade Cooper
11. Digby Ioane
12. Ben Tapuai
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
14. James O'Connor
15. Kurtley Beale

16. Stephen Moore
17. James Slipper
18. Sekope Kepu
19. Sitaleki Timani
20. Michael Hooper
21. Nic White
22. Berrick Barnes
23. Jesse Mogg

 

[Paradox]

Rightly or Wrongly, I think Deans will go with McCabe at 12, TPN at 2, Palu at 8. 6 is a position he hasn't settled on. Beale is not guaranteed to start at 15 given was dropped last year in that position. QC (Quade Cooper) is definitely on the outer with Deans. I also think the locking position to partner Horwill is up for grabs. IMO, we'll see something like:

1. Fatcat
2. TPN
3. Alexander
4. Douglas
5. Horwill
6. Samo
7. Pocock
8. Palu
9. Genia
10. JOC (James O'Connor)
11. Ioane
12. McCabe
13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14. Mitchell
15. Barnes

PLEASE NOTE IT'S NOT MY SIDE OF CHOICE Would he risk Timani to lock with Horwill despite the reduced lineout?

 

[JSRF10]

Is Higgenbotham a good enough 6 at international level? Yet to be convinced he can make the step up

 

[Paradox]

I'd start Leallifano at 12 with Cooper at 10. I don't think Taps can slot into first receiver and Lilo is just as good if not better in defense. Time will tell. JOC (James O'Connor)/Taps at 13 would be interesting.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Would he risk Timani to lock with Horwill despite the reduced lineout?

I think last year he showed he doesn't care about the lineout that much, but with Samo at 6 and Palu at 8 he would be clever enough to pick a lock who can jump.
I think that Timani being chosen at lock will mean we see Higgers/Dennis at 6 and McCalman/Mowen at 8.

 

[Paradox]

Is Higgenbotham a good enough 6 at international level? Yet to be convinced he can make the step up

Agreed. Has lacked consistency.

 

[Paradox]

I think last year he showed he doesn't care about the lineout that much, but with Samo at 6 and Palu at 8 he would be clever enough to pick a lock who can jump.
I think that Timani being chosen at lock will mean we see Higgers/Dennis at 6 and McCalman/Mowen at 8.

Yeah was thinking that he could make up lineout loss in backrow...but I can't see him not playing Palu.

 

[RoffsChoice]

I'd start Leallifano at 12 with Cooper at 10. I don't think Taps can slot into first receiver and Lilo is just as good if not better in defense. Time will tell. JOC (James O'Connor)/Taps at 13 would be interesting.

We've seen the Wallabies strategy of "the 9/10 is tackled, guess we pick and drive until they're up". I don't think we'll have a second-first (what? ) receiver at 12.
Plus, Dingo seems to understand that combinations matter. 10-12 will be well developed if it is Cooper-Taps.
In the EOYT, Taps really couldn't pull it off at 13. Maybe he'd do better this year? I still think there's a time for interesting and then there is the Lions tour.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Yeah was thinking that he could make up lineout loss in backrow.but I can't see him not playing Palu.

That's my thinking, hence Higgenbotham at 6 and Douglass over Timani.