Hey team, seen this discussion brought up in a few forums. Thought I would add my two cents
**Note, I have missed some games since 2007 due to lack of info about the refs or I didn't input their name. So the total game numbers will be a little lower**
Looking at the "Expected Wins" each team is supposed to have gives us a good reflection on any bias. We can do this through the odds provided by betting joints at the time of kick off.
To say I was amazed is an understatement....Hopefully this makes sense!
So, to work out the "Expected Wins" we just need to look at the Head To Head Price...
If the betting the following..
Team A $1.90
Team B $1.90
Then taking out the bookies take these odds convert to each team having a 50% chance of winning. If Team A wins, then they get +.50 wins, while if Team B Loses then they get -.50 wins.
When you add all these up you can work out expected wins over a period of time.
For example, since 2007 the Crusaders have won 6.97 more game at home over the 108 games they have played, where the Waratahs out of 96 home games have lost 2.75 games more than they were supposed to.
If we now turn our attention to the Refs...
Since 2007 there have been 391 games (From my records) where the nationality of the ref is the same as the home team, but different to the away side. There have been 1504 all together and around 25/26% of Super Rugby games have a home town ref.
TOTAL GAMES with home town ref.
Argentina -3
Australia -74
New Zealand - 150
South Africa -164
Of these game this is the straight win/loss record
Argentina -3 -- 0
Australia - 38 -- 37
New Zealand 116.5 -- 32.5
South Africa 107 -- 57
Obviously looking at the straight win loss records doesn't tell us much...
Now lets look at the EXPECTED vs ACTUAL Wins
EXPECTED ACTUAL NET GAIN/LOSS
Argentina 2.4 3 +0.6 (Games)
Australia 39.74 38 -1.74 (Games)
New Zealand 113.75 116.5 +2.75 (Games)
South Africa 97.2 107 +9.8 (Games)
You can see above that when South Africa have a home town ref they have over performed by an INSANE 9.8 games!!! which is HUGE when its only out of 164 games.
Individual refs. Looking at individuals, I made sure that they have had 5+ matches where they have reffed the home team.
GAMES WINS ABOVE EXP AVERAGE WINS PER GAME
Louren van der Merwe 5 +1.85 +.37
Rasta Rashivhenge 12 +2.98 +.25
Egon Seconds 5 +.99 +.20
Bryce Lawrence 10 +1.49 +.15
James Leckie 5 +.73 +.15
EXTRA
Federico Anselmi 3 +.60 +.20
**He has reffed 3 Jags game and they have won all 3 and also covered the line on all 3 occasions..
I was keen to look at what refs go the other way, have may have a bias towards the away team so it looks like they are being fair?....
GAMES WINS ABOVE EXP AVERAGE WINS PER GAME
Nathan Pearce 5 -1.49 -.30
Nic Berry 7 -1.64 -.23
Rohan Hoffman 8 -1.80 -.22
Brendon Pickerill 11 -1.94 -.18
So, in conclusion it stands out like dogs balls that the South African refs when they ref in South Africa give a leg up to the home team.
Hopefully someone understands all this mumble jumble....
Chur!
Dave