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Hometown Refs

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
Just to add to that, I wonder how much the bookies already take the home team ref into account when they set the lines?
You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.
 

Strewthcobber

Simon Poidevin (60)
You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.
That means the numbers above are an underestimate of how much of an advantage is given.

Or an opportunity if it isn't taken into account yet
 

RugbyBookie

Frank Row (1)
You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.

I can assure you, this does not happen :)
 

Braveheart81

Will Genia (78)
Staff member
SANZAAR said:
"People are always producing statistics, but we will at the right time communicate our view on where we are from a competition perspective and the performances of our referees. I just don't understand where, all of sudden, after 10 years of meritocracy, suddenly now neutrality becomes an issue because a team, or teams, are suddenly are now feeling aggrieved by processes.

Possibly worth mentioning that under this meritocracy, the two biggest outliers in terms of South African referees (Egon Seconds and Jaco van Heerden) with the greatest differential in penalties against the non South African team are both no longer Super Rugby referees.

Rasta Rasivhenge and Marius van der Westhuizen up next hopefully!
 

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
The sample size would be way too small to make this worthwhile at the level of betting which occurs on Super Rugby games I'd imagine.
Yes, you’re probably right but even at international level you’re going to have problems with small sample bias. Just in my experience people are willing to fit models for anything these days and don’t care as much about the checks and balances you’d normally see in academic stat papers.
 

Strewthcobber

Simon Poidevin (60)
Yes, you’re probably right but even at international level you’re going to have problems with small sample bias. Just in my experience people are willing to fit models for anything these days and don’t care as much about the checks and balances you’d normally see in academic stat papers.

No home refs at international level!

What top Top 14/Champions Cup do? Much less of a travel problem for them of course
 

Up the Guts

Steve Williams (59)
No home refs at international level!

What top Top 14/Champions Cup do? Much less of a travel problem for them of course
Owens is a home ref for the ABs.

I meant for internationals you’d have some adjustment made on the basis of the historical performance under a certain ref (not dependent on home/away). Anyway, kind of getting off the beaten track here but I’d be interested to know if the bookies do adjust based on referee because that would be suggestive.
 

RugbyBookie

Frank Row (1)
The sample size would be way too small to make this worthwhile at the level of betting which occurs on Super Rugby games I'd imagine.


Yeah you are on the right track. I high turnover sports like AFL and NRL then ref stats may get looked into. But its a waste of time for the bookies as they turn over next to nothing on Rugby.
 

RugbyBookie

Frank Row (1)
Owens is a home ref for the ABs.

I meant for internationals you’d have some adjustment made on the basis of the historical performance under a certain ref (not dependent on home/away). Anyway, kind of getting off the beaten track here but I’d be interested to know if the bookies do adjust based on referee because that would be suggestive.

We dont...if there is a big edge (which it looks like) then market forces will bring it into line.
 

Zero_Cool

Arch Winning (36)
I'd tend to agree that anything less than a full season is probably not enough data to really draw conclusions from. My own personal research has suggested the bias is still there in 2019. My data gives a 5.5 penalty advantage to SA teams under SA refs, while Australians get a 2.5 penalty advantage, and the Kiwis get a 0.5 penalty advantage. So whatever is going on to fix this isn't really making it better if we use the 150 total from 2017 through 2019, my data shows 68 penalty advantage in 2019, so that's at worst more than a third.
 

Blue

Andrew Slack (58)
You’d imagine their algos would have some component that includes historical performance under a certain ref (for instance, Wallabies vs ABs under Peyper would contribute negatively to Wallaby odds). So if historically SA teams have performed better under SA refs then that would be accounted for but I can’t imagine the weighting would be too high.


They would without a doubt have been the first to spot a trend and would have already started factoring this into pricing. The more advanced ones anyway.
 

Blue

Andrew Slack (58)
Possibly worth mentioning that under this meritocracy, the two biggest outliers in terms of South African referees (Egon Seconds and Jaco van Heerden) with the greatest differential in penalties against the non South African team are both no longer Super Rugby referees.



Rasta Rasivhenge and Marius van der Westhuizen up next hopefully!



Seconds should not be reffing at this level. He is absolutely woeful.
 

RugbyBookie

Frank Row (1)
They would without a doubt have been the first to spot a trend and would have already started factoring this into pricing. The more advanced ones anyway.

Everyone giving bookies waaaaay to much credit here haha! I would be SHOCKED if any bookies that chuck up Super Rugby chuck any sort of Ref input into their prices (Yes, they should) and this probably happened 10+ years ago..but I highly doubt it now...
 
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