Hometown Refs

[Dan54]

What a cop out! All the Aussie referees numbers are up there as well. All the stats come directly from SANZAARS own website and I've never been happy with their meritorious system.

Yep, but whether we like it or not, it often rightfully or wrongfully considered by many fans that perhaps Aussie fans (and maybe because of the likes of Cheika,Kafer etc) tend to feel that they are hard done by the most. It is also in cricket and I think it is mainly because of press, as I not sure the general fan is any different than the rest of the world.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Sorry mate, my main point was thank you Hoff for penalising the Force about ten times more than was justified and giving us the win which got us a finals spot I'll acknowledge that Aussie refs aren't great, and I think it's a shit call to say "get your own house in order" to fans who already want Aussie refs to do better.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

"People are always producing statistics, but we will at the right time communicate our view on where we are from a competition perspective and the performances of our referees. I just don't understand where, all of sudden, after 10 years of meritocracy, suddenly now neutrality becomes an issue because a team, or teams, are suddenly are now feeling aggrieved by processes.

hahaha, stone cold classic. any time you're ready buddy. It's like the captain of the fucken Titanic issuing a statement from the bridge

"Ships are always hitting icebergs, but we will at the right time communicate our view on where we are from a floatation perspective and the performance of our ship. I just don't understand where, all of sudden, after 10 years at sea, suddenly now floatation becomes an issue because a ship, or ships, are suddenly now feeling themselves sliding towards the bottom of the ocean."

 

[Dan54]

Assuming I am reading Reg's stats correctly it would be as follows:

Total South Africa home games against foreign team with any ref = 75 games, 580 penalties against home side, 746 against away side for an average of an extra 2.21 penalties a game against the away team.

Total South Africa home games against foreign team with a South African ref = 42 games, 295 penalties against home side, 449 against away side for an average of an extra 3.67 penalties a game against the away team.

That leaves:

Total South Africa home games against foreign team with a foreign ref = 33 games, 285 penalties against home side, 297 against away side for an average of an extra 0.36 penalties a game against the away team.

That is very good, but I think we have to know where games are played etc, as I do tend to think that teams play differently when visiting SA too, because at home SA teams tend to play so much better.

And please I not taking sides or saying one way or another, just I have heard that such and such a ref usually favours the home team, which is more because visiting teams can make more mistakes. That's why we like home ground advantage!

 

[barbarian]

That is very good, but I think we have to know where games are played etc, as I do tend to think that teams play differently when visiting SA too, because at home SA teams tend to play so much better.

As I understand it, the final stat puts this discussion to rest. In SA, local refs favour the home side by 3.67 penalties per game. At the same grounds, with the same teams (more or less), neutral refs only give an advantage of 0.36 penalties per game.

So if you're playing in SA and a local ref fronts up to officiate, you are likely to concede 3.3 more penalties than your opposition. Against good SA sides in often close games, that's an enormous advantage to the home side.
.

 

[Up the Guts]

That is very good, but I think we have to know where games are played etc, as I do tend to think that teams play differently when visiting SA too, because at home SA teams tend to play so much better.

And please I not taking sides or saying one way or another, just I have heard that such and such a ref usually favours the home team, which is more because visiting teams can make more mistakes. That's why we like home ground advantage!

But if the reason that foreign teams were being penalised more in SA was because they didn't adjust to the conditions or some other exogenous factors unrelated to referee bias then we should see a positive penalty count in favour of SA teams of the same magnitude across both SA referees and foreign referees. We're not seeing that though, we're seeing a much higher penalty count in favour of SA teams under SA referees compared to foreign referees. This suggests that the presence of SA referees is a unique determinant of the larger penalty count in favour of SA teams at home

 

[Derpus]

That's come quality bullshitting from Marinos.

 

[PhilClinton]

That's come quality bullshitting from Merino.

The Angus Gardner reference literally holds no relevance to the statistics or conversation, its simply there to try and pivot the conversation away from the matter at hand. Some spin doctor told him to drop that little nugget in there as a deflection. But it comes across as ignorant to the reason why these findings are important to rugby supporters.

 

[Braveheart81]

The best part about someone from RA or NZRU making a complaint to SANZAAR is that presumably they then get approached by SANZAAR as to what the response should be.

I don't for a minute expect that Andy Marinos gets to make any substantial statements without prior approval.

 

[The Nomad]

Just shoot the messenger , works for most autocratic governance.

 

[Braveheart81]

The Angus Gardner reference

I love that they are simultaneously reversing the bus that World Rugby originally threw Angus Gardner under, back over him and gaslighting Australian rugby fans for daring to do some research and have an opinion.

 

[drewprint]

I don’t know much about him, but LinkedIn tells me Marinos is South African educated, and worked in various admin roles within SA rugby for 10 years prior to this SANZAAR role. It looks like this hard data has struck a bit of a nerve?

 

[Braveheart81]

I don’t know much about him, but LinkedIn tells me Marinos is South African educated, and worked in various admin roles within SA rugby for 10 years prior to this SANZAAR role. It looks like this hard data has struck a bit of a nerve?

It needs to be remembered that SANZAAR have (I think) less than 10 employees and are a subsidiary of the SANZAAR unions. The committee are board members of the SANZAAR member boards.

Anything that they do of any great significance will need the sign-off of the committee that are CEOs and Chairpersons of the member unions.

There will be a strong element of NZRU and RA wanting this to have some impact and potentially change things but also knowing that they are making a complain to themselves and need to weigh up the impact of that complaint.

 

[Derpus]

It needs to be remembered that SANZAAR have (I think) less than 10 employees and are a subsidiary of the SANZAAR unions. The committee are board members of the SANZAAR member boards.

Anything that they do of any great significance will need the sign-off of the committee that are CEOs and Chairpersons of the member unions.

There will be a strong element of NZRU and RA wanting this to have some impact and potentially change things but also knowing that they are making a complain to themselves and need to weigh up the impact of that complaint.

Any governance structure that involves 'making complaints to yourself' is fucked from the start.

 

[Mr Wobbly]

 

[RugbyReg]

I don’t know much about him, but LinkedIn tells me Marinos is South African educated, and worked in various admin roles within SA rugby for 10 years prior to this SANZAAR role. It looks like this hard data has struck a bit of a nerve?

he played for the Stormers

 

[Rebels3]

One thing the discussion needs to remember is that the outlier is with the lack of penalties given and not the amount of penalties awarded. Although SA refs award (only slightly) more penalties in general it’s the considerably less amount of penalties awarded to the home side. Almost as if one team is held to a different standard than the other.

One stat that needs to be focused on as well is that SA teams in SA under a home town ref have won 27 of the last 29 penalty counts. That’s only 6.8% of all games going in favor of the opposition sides.

As for Marino’s, his comments were strange and came across very pro-SA “get back into your box Aus” mentality. If SANZAAR is a true representative group of the RC nations I’d like to see a minimum term of 2-3 years awarded to a leader with a rotating roster of the 4 different countries been representative. Having the same guy with obvious links to one party isn’t the greatest look for optics. It’s probably time for him to go, after all the RC and Super Rugby have probably had its worst years under his leadership, although I do admit circumstances outside his control haven’t helped.

 

[The Nomad]

Maybe Zane will be able to explain it .......

 

[RugbyBookie]

Hey team, seen this discussion brought up in a few forums. Thought I would add my two cents

**Note, I have missed some games since 2007 due to lack of info about the refs or I didn't input their name. So the total game numbers will be a little lower**

Looking at the "Expected Wins" each team is supposed to have gives us a good reflection on any bias. We can do this through the odds provided by betting joints at the time of kick off.

To say I was amazed is an understatement....Hopefully this makes sense!



So, to work out the "Expected Wins" we just need to look at the Head To Head Price...

If the betting the following..
Team A $1.90
Team B $1.90
Then taking out the bookies take these odds convert to each team having a 50% chance of winning. If Team A wins, then they get +.50 wins, while if Team B Loses then they get -.50 wins.

When you add all these up you can work out expected wins over a period of time.

For example, since 2007 the Crusaders have won 6.97 more game at home over the 108 games they have played, where the Waratahs out of 96 home games have lost 2.75 games more than they were supposed to.

If we now turn our attention to the Refs...


Since 2007 there have been 391 games (From my records) where the nationality of the ref is the same as the home team, but different to the away side. There have been 1504 all together and around 25/26% of Super Rugby games have a home town ref.

TOTAL GAMES with home town ref.
Argentina -3
Australia -74
New Zealand - 150
South Africa -164


Of these game this is the straight win/loss record
Argentina -3 -- 0
Australia - 38 -- 37
New Zealand 116.5 -- 32.5
South Africa 107 -- 57

Obviously looking at the straight win loss records doesn't tell us much...

Now lets look at the EXPECTED vs ACTUAL Wins

EXPECTED ACTUAL NET GAIN/LOSS
Argentina 2.4 3 +0.6 (Games)
Australia 39.74 38 -1.74 (Games)
New Zealand 113.75 116.5 +2.75 (Games)
South Africa 97.2 107 +9.8 (Games)

You can see above that when South Africa have a home town ref they have over performed by an INSANE 9.8 games!!! which is HUGE when its only out of 164 games.

Individual refs. Looking at individuals, I made sure that they have had 5+ matches where they have reffed the home team.

GAMES WINS ABOVE EXP AVERAGE WINS PER GAME
Louren van der Merwe 5 +1.85 +.37
Rasta Rashivhenge 12 +2.98 +.25
Egon Seconds 5 +.99 +.20
Bryce Lawrence 10 +1.49 +.15
James Leckie 5 +.73 +.15

EXTRA
Federico Anselmi 3 +.60 +.20
**He has reffed 3 Jags game and they have won all 3 and also covered the line on all 3 occasions..

I was keen to look at what refs go the other way, have may have a bias towards the away team so it looks like they are being fair?....
GAMES WINS ABOVE EXP AVERAGE WINS PER GAME
Nathan Pearce 5 -1.49 -.30
Nic Berry 7 -1.64 -.23
Rohan Hoffman 8 -1.80 -.22
Brendon Pickerill 11 -1.94 -.18


So, in conclusion it stands out like dogs balls that the South African refs when they ref in South Africa give a leg up to the home team.

Hopefully someone understands all this mumble jumble....


Chur!
Dave

 

[Strewthcobber]

Just to add to that, I wonder how much the bookies already take the home team ref into account when they set the lines?