Fantasy Super rugby 2013

[No4918]

1 transfer left and don't know who to drop. Burleigh or Olivier for ??? or Ed Odonoghue for MMM? JOC (James O'Connor) & Pyle are the reserves.

Ed will probably have to go next week with Horwills return so it might be safer but less upside for points. I expect the Kings will get the hiding everyone has predicted so far this week and a chiefs centre could be a big winner.

 

[suckerforred]

Well this is what I have been left with...... Contemplating leaving Retallick on the field even though he is playing off the bench. Wouldn't be the first time a bench player has scored highly.

Also, sorry for all those with Poki. Not only have I drafted him in, I have made him captain. First minute injury while comitting a hienous penalty my prediction.

 

[Braveheart81]

I expect the Kings will get the hiding everyone has predicted so far this week and TNW could be a big winner.

Doubtful. TNW is still in my fantasy team so he'll probably suck.

The Chiefs will win by 60 and he'll get cut out every time. He'll probably give away a couple of penalties in frustration.

 

[The Red Baron]

Also, sorry for all those with Poki. Not only have I drafted him in, I have made him captain. First minute injury while comitting a hienous penalty my prediction.

No. This is what will happen:

In the first 10 minutes of the game Poki will knock the ball on the 4 times he receives it. In frustration, he will continually infringe. The ref will get sick of this and after the 3rd infringement, promptly send Poki to the bin. During that period, the Highlanders goalkickers will injure themselves in one way or another.

When Poki returns to the field, he then has to kick goals as there is no one else. The Highlanders will score 3 tries (with Poki having nothing to do with any of them) and Poki will miss all 3 kicks at goal. He will also miss 2 penalty kicks.

Just after halftime, the Hurricanes will launch multiple attacking raids down Poki's wing. As a result, he will miss 5 tackles while completing 0. In frustration, he will then attempt to coathanger Conrad Smith, resulting in a Red Card.

His points spread will look like:

Minutes played = 50 = 1 Point
Runs = 5 = 5 Points
Tackles Missed = 5 = -10 Points
Conv's Missed = 3 = -3 Points
Penalties Missed=2 = -2 Points
Long arm Pen = 4 = -16 Points
Yellow Cards = 1 = -5 Points
Red Cards = 1 = -15 Points
Errors = 4 = -12 Points

For a grand total of: -57 Points

 

[suckerforred]

Much more likely senerio Baron.

 

[Braveheart81]

He just forgot to double the points for the Captain.

That would make it -114.

 

[Ash]

Centres are hard this week. Think I will end up with Taps and Crotty this week with JOC (James O'Connor) (bye) on the bench. Next week I'll bring in Saili, if possible, for Taps probably. I'd probably have taken either Ngatai or Aki, but the bloody Chiefs aren't starting either.

Struggling with my locks, too. Retallick being benced is a nasty curve ball, and my other locks were Luatua and Pyle (both on a bye!). I think I'll bring in MMM, maybe, and either Flip or Franco VDM.

Finally, outside backs. Retallick being bench has screwed me here too. I brought in Poki earlier, but due to subbing Retallick I am out of subs. Therefore, I am stuck with Poki, Dagg and McNicholl, with Piutau (bye) on my bench. I had intended to bring in either Betham (for McNicholl) or Ben Smith (for Dagg). Guess I'll just get Savea in two weeks time instead.

 

[hench]

Wildcard time.

 

[Bairdy]

Rhys Marshall, the substitute hooker for the Chiefs, could be an astute buy this week, as Hansen has indicated on Reunion he is on track to become an All Black if he continues the form he's displayed thus far. Jason Emery, the young Highlanders centre on the bench, is also being touted as an eventual All Black in waiting. Worth watching how they go anyway on the weekend before buying.

What do people think about Coetzee's form at the moment? Even though he's scoring a slightly better average than Hooper, I think that's because he hasen't had to do a lot in the tight Saffa derbies, whereas Hooper has had to cover for the Tahs in open matches (where he for example missed 10 tackles but made 20).

So, banking on Labuschagne to continue his form, and I have chosen to bench Coetzee, though might redo transfers and transfer him out indefinitely for Cane.

 

[Bullrush]

OK....so I wasn't quite as well covered as I thought I was (thanks to the Chiefs mid-field changes) and I'm not sold on Rathbone so I may cancel my trades to get a back 3 that I'm happy with rather than use the trade to get rid of Hougaard. Given the scores that half-backs are getting, it may be the better move. Anyway....here's my team for this week....it may yet change! Of course, Jake White has yet to name his team yet so that decision may actually get made for me in the next 12 hrs or so....LOL

 

[Hawko]

Yet again the only team line-up not available is Foley's Force (aka Folly's Farce).

 

[The Red Baron]

For the guys who haven't finalised their teams yet, and are having issues in the centres, I am currently putting my quantitative research skills to good use. I am compiling data for the starting centres this round, which goes a little deeper than Fox's stats. I just need to filter some things out of my data and I should be able to post a centre selection guide for this round. If I have time before the deadline, I will attempt the same with another position.

So please give me your thoughts to what positions you are having problems with, and I will analyse a second position by consensus, and try and have it up by mid afternoon.

Basically I am looking at mean, median, range and deviation. Hopefully this will give us a more accurate read into the players we select.

I have to add a disclaimer though: The data is not representative. By this, I mean that as I have such a small sample to work with, the data will in no way be totally accurate. I will try to update as the weeks go by, but I realistically wouldn't expect any accurate inferences until about round 10.

 

[Braveheart81]

I would love more in depth analysis to be available. I played Fantasy NFL for the first time this year and the 'research' available is fantastic.

You can find which teams give up the most points to which position players etc. I.e. it would be great to know that such and such team absolutely leaks fantasy points to opposition backrowers but are miserly in the backline etc. Or which teams average the most and least points against goalkickers (whichever position the goalkicker plays) etc.

 

[jay-c]

can anyone tell me which of the cheetahs locks have been subbing early?
if i can figure out which one they have a favourable draw the next few weeks> might be some cheap points

 

[jay-c]

seriously considering taking a dive with one of my locks in order to use the sub at hooker as ged robinsons not playing and i think ill get more points out of a swap for moore> hookers are scoring far more than locks atm

 

[Ash]

So who is using their wildcard this week?

I have to admit it is tempting, but there's not a lot of changes I'd actually make due to this week's byes and next week's bye. I'd rather have it in hand for the Lions series, I think.

 

[Ash]

can anyone tell me which of the cheetahs locks have been subbing early?
if i can figure out which one they have a favourable draw the next few weeks> might be some cheap points

jay-c; you can look at the history of players scores. It should show minutes played for the last few games.

 

[The Red Baron]

I would love more in depth analysis to be available. I played Fantasy NFL for the first time this year and the 'research' available is fantastic.

You can find which teams give up the most points to which position players etc. I.e. it would be great to know that such and such team absolutely leaks fantasy points to opposition backrowers but are miserly in the backline etc. Or which teams average the most and least points against goalkickers (whichever position the goalkicker plays) etc.

I'll try and build into that over the next few weeks as more data becomes available. For now, I am just sticking with individual player performance.

 

[jay-c]

thanks mate > its changed from where it was last year and i didnt think it was available>>
i guess its safe to say im pretty lucky to be where i am right now in points haha
expecting a big drop off after i get hammered this week as im forced to make changes jus so i can fit in starting players as opposed to whos gunna score points this week

 

[The Red Baron]

Ok, I have just uploaded a spreadsheet of centres for this weekend based on their cumulative scores so far this season. A couple of points to note:

• The mean is their average score
• The median is their middle point
• The range is the difference between a player's highest and lowest scores. A higher range will suggest fluctuation round to round.
• The deviation is the amount their score has deviated from the mean. Ideally you want a low deviation here.
• In the adjusted figures, I have removed tries scored, as this can skew the data. For example, look how much Tapuai's averages deviate after his tries have been removed.

It is pretty basic, and has not taken into account minutes played and other situational factors. I have included both mean and median. The median is resistant to outliers; the mean is not (look at Sadies figures). As it is only a very small sample, the median might be a better guide to a players points average at this stage.

Again, this data is not wholly representative, and should only be used as a rough guide. Based on this data though, I would recommend selecting either Steyn or Olivier. Both players have reasonable averages (mean and/or median) and their deviation is quite low. Olivier's figures in particular are quite good; he has a very low deviation and a small range.

If anyone has no idea what I am talking about, feel free to PM me and I will explain it further. I do plan to extend this data out over time, and I will add stats for all the positions. I'll try and do something similar for starting locks and have it up before cut off this afternoon.

If anyone has any further suggestions as to what they would like included and measured, speak up and I will see what I can do. BH, I'll see if I can compile some stuff based around what you would like to see over the next couple of weeks.

EDIT: I have just had a thought and I will graph the data to make it easier to read.
DOUBLE EDIT: Tables are loaded onto the spreadsheet. Should make for easier reading. Raw data is located in the Data Baby! tab. I am tossing up the idea of doing an infographic for this stuff though.