Declining participation and ARU plans for the future

[WorkingClassRugger]

So you'd leave Super Rugby and have an expanded NRC for 22 rounds plus finals? I actually used to think this was a decent idea, but I've changed my mind. I like the fact that top international level club/franchise rugby, featuring the best players in the world, is played in Australia. With a domestic league in place of Super Rugby the only world class rugby in Australia would be the 6 or 7 Wallabies home games each year (filled with players based in Europe and Japan), and perhaps the odd tour from rich foreign clubs on branding exercises.

Personally I see this as a last resort if the game is truly on its knees, and I don't think that we're at that point yet. I'm afraid that rather than create a new A League or Big Bash, we'd create the new NBL - I see that as much more likely.

Leaving Super Rugby should be the absolute last resort. Even without the same resources as the French or English it is still easily the best Rugby competition in the world. It's biggest issue is structural. By that I'm not suggesting reverting back to the round robin format. What I like about a potential Super Rugby/Pro12 merger or even partial merger ala the Rainbow Cup concept is that it could force the changes necessary to actually make the structural leap.

We neee two things here. Content in the appropriate time zones and games our market cares about. Those are games involving Australian teams either against one another or Kiwi sides. The others are the Kiwi derbies. To do this we may need to take the Sunwolves and Jaguares along with us but I don't actually mind that.

 

[Omar Comin']

We need two things here. Content in the appropriate time zones and games our market cares about. Those are games involving Australian teams either against one another or Kiwi sides. The others are the Kiwi derbies. To do this we may need to take the Sunwolves and Jaguares along with us but I don't actually mind that.

While the current conference model doesn't work well I do think the Jaguares are better off with South Africa until they can build up their own South American or Americas conference. The time zones work out better for them there (games played in Australia and NZ are on in the middle of the night in Argentina). The other alternative that works okay for them (and what may work best with the current number and make up of teams) would be having them in the NZ conference and playing some of their games in New Zealand at a lunch time kick off.

But I think ideally we'd want Australian teams to just be playing NZ and Japanese/Asian teams in the regular season. This isn't likely though as the NZRU have consistently said they want to be playing South African teams in the regular season (and South Africa want this too).

 

[wamberal]

The Oz has an article calling for the Force to be propped up, and calling for a draft to ensure that they get better recruits.


I did not read the article, just the headline and the first few lines, but I do not think that a draft is a smart thing for us.


Most of our player base lives on the East Coast, and I assume that most of them would prefer to be playing for an East Coast franchise.

So either good young players would have to be offered a significant incentive to go to the Force, or we might find that faced with the alternative of "the Force or nothing", most, if not all, might choose nothing. Well, the ones with a choice would, and the choice would be the opposition code.


Some form of central recruiting would be good, for sure. But it would have to operate on a voluntary basis, a wink and a nod from the national coaching staff that such a move would be seen as good from the point of view of the player's development.

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

The Oz has an article calling for the Force to be propped up, and calling for a draft to ensure that they get better recruits.


I did not read the article, just the headline and the first few lines, but I do not think that a draft is a smart thing for us.


Most of our player base lives on the East Coast, and I assume that most of them would prefer to be playing for an East Coast franchise.

So either good young players would have to be offered a significant incentive to go to the Force, or we might find that faced with the alternative of "the Force or nothing", most, if not all, might choose nothing. Well, the ones with a choice would, and the choice would be the opposition code.


Some form of central recruiting would be good, for sure. But it would have to operate on a voluntary basis, a wink and a nod from the national coaching staff that such a move would be seen as good from the point of view of the player's development.

It might be more palatable if it was part of a larger move toward centralisation. I think much of the hesitation if any comes from the perception of the program rather than it's location. Having spent some time living in WA I can attest to Perth being quite a reasonable place to live.

 

[Jagman]

The Oz has an article calling for the Force to be propped up, and calling for a draft to ensure that they get better recruits.


I did not read the article, just the headline and the first few lines, but I do not think that a draft is a smart thing for us.


Most of our player base lives on the East Coast, and I assume that most of them would prefer to be playing for an East Coast franchise.

So either good young players would have to be offered a significant incentive to go to the Force, or we might find that faced with the alternative of "the Force or nothing", most, if not all, might choose nothing. Well, the ones with a choice would, and the choice would be the opposition code.


Some form of central recruiting would be good, for sure. But it would have to operate on a voluntary basis, a wink and a nod from the national coaching staff that such a move would be seen as good from the point of view of the player's development.

That article isn't suggesting an Australian draft but a SANZAAR wide one.

Sent from my FP2 using Tapatalk

 

[wamberal]

How on earth would that work?

 

[Jagman]

How on earth would that work?

Good question. He suggests that players in the draft would remain eligible to the country their from if that helps but he doesn't actually write much about his theory. The article is more about why Super Rugby needs this draft than the draft itself.

Sent from my FP2 using Tapatalk

 

[wamberal]

Sounds a bit unlikely?

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

How on earth would that work?

The only way I could think that it would be setting up a U20/21s Super Rugby tournament as a means of identifying and comparing talent.

 

[Jagman]

I think he just needed to write an article. Wouldn't read too much into it.

Sent from my FP2 using Tapatalk

 

[RedsHappy]

I think he just needed to write an article. Wouldn't read too much into it.

Sent from my FP2 using Tapatalk

No mate. You don't understand the particular way W Smith works. His own rugby-world gestalt. He has pets, hero and villains, as favoured subjects.

Lately, as a result of close relationships with rugby persons he likes within the WARugby protectorate, he's running a singular campaign to defend the Force from any conveniently accessed angle. He never quite says why this is such a good idea, it just is assumed to be so and he will conjure up all manner of arguments in the defence. Drafts is the latest.

He ran a near-incessant campaign against JO'N and R Deans in their later periods (especially when they were in the sights of the hubris-laden QRU top brass). He then turned blind eye after blind eye to Link's foibles as Wallaby coach and routinely molly-coddled the QRU board and management (partly as they fed him 'exclusives' and so on); he only started gently critiquing R Graham when Nero had finished fiddling and Rome was virtually all burnt down.

 

[RugbyReg]

A positive rugby participation story for you all. Proud to say my eldest is involved as one of the mentors. It is a wonderful initiative and one I get great enjoyment being somewhat apart of.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[WorkingClassRugger]

A positive rugby participation story for you all. Proud to say my eldest is involved as one of the mentors. It is a wonderful initiative and one I get great enjoyment being somewhat apart of.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Watched that on World Rugby's YouTube channel. Great piece and a great initiative. Bully (meant in the informal - good, well done) to your young bloke for getting involved.

 

[p.Tah]

I may have teared up a bit watching that. Great stuff.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Where to start and how to keep it simple is a challenge.

Today I had a non-business lunch / indoor BBQ with a client. The client owns and runs a small media company. He employs 7, plus the owner and his son. They are net based and do a lot of work for all the networks and other media companies. The work is threefold technical support, web based applications developed, and overnight web watching.

The contracts result in my client talking daily to the technical and production folk at the FTA networks as well as many other people. His company also does work for some sporting teams i.e in-house vids and sometimes youtubes put on various sporting club sites.

I should add at this point, this guy is a hard core rusted on Football fan.

Back to the BBQ conversation in a mo. On the rating thread today last night’s ratings were Channel Ten 181K and Fox 124 K in prime time that’s 315 K for a match that did get a reasonable amount of press.

In those rating my mind struggles to imagine there are many new folk. More the balance of the hard core and ageing rusted on.

During the week the talk on rugby has been about some super international club competition.

Back to the BBQ, my client said all the commercial FTA channels want the A-League, Socceroos and Matilda’s partly because sports rates but in the under 25 demographic were FTA struggle, soccer he says is stronger than any other code. He says all the technical folk and producers are talking about it. Further he says netball is also being talked about as a growth area. The rub is they all see rugby as slowly fading away because we have by some distance the oldest audience. Rugby is struggling against all other codes in growing the under 25 market.

Very soon rugby will be faced with a 12 team A-League, a 12 team netball, along with the 16 team RL maybe expanded to 18 teams, an 18 team maybe expanded to 20 team AFL. All of these will be national domestic competitions with the NRL and A-League having a NZ team as well. Media will become even more difficult.

Rugby with maybe five Super teams unless either Perth or Melbourne is cut.

By the time the current media deal is complete rugby will have been largely hidden away for 25 years on Fox.

Everyone with even half a brain should know in the Australian sporting environment it’s a national domestic competition played over 22 plus rounds plus finals that get media and fans.


Let me be as infract as I can. We need as a matter of urgency to develop and have ready a national domestic competition ready for implementation by the next media deal. If we go another round of SANDZZAR deals IMO we are signing off as a major code and retreating to a point of who cares anymore.

SANDZZAR competitions on Fox will not grow rugby it's that simple.

Yes half we hear you about establishing a national domestic comp but how can you do that without bankrupting rugby. I agree this has to be a longer term target but need jumps to get to that.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[half]

Rugbynutter39

I hear Ya, and hear many others, the cries IMO of people in many ways who have lost faith in what they hold dear.

Unlike almost everyone else I don't think the net revenue fall will be anywhere near as bad as many predict.

Essentially I don't see the revenue from the National team falling.

I see less cost in terms of travel and accommodation and more costs in wages.

Lets consider before our eyes over the coming few weeks FFA will be in negotiation with broadcasters. Because of some Asian hand over of broadcast rights to an independent company, FFA can not sell their important international matches and cannot even guarantee the Socceroos will be on the same station as the A-League.

In Australia the A-League rates slightly less than rugby matches in Australia, this is important.

FFA are selling into the broadcasting landscape a product that on a match by match comparison rates less than rugby. But they will play about 140 matches plus their FFA Cup.

Lets look at what they get. Remember its only for the A-League they have no control over their main international matches.

Soccer re-badged itself Old soccer became new football. Netball is re-badging itself.

Why can't we also re-badge and launch a new competition. The Old Farts Suits becomes the Young and Beautiful. [PS I failed marketing names so arguably my chosen names would not work but hopefully it gets the idea across]

Anyway Nutter, I don't think I will convince many, most think I am over pessimistic,and some see me as being over optimistic and many consider the idea of launching a new competition puts so much at risk they would rather stay with the slow decline and hope the Nobody Really Cares competition will rise up one day and all before it will tremble.

viva the revolution or something like that, off with the SANDZZAR heads and full steam ahead with the new Young and Beautiful rugby competition.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Maybe we just need to find that rich benefactor who wants to bankroll the rollout of a national competition.

Don't disagree with the target but just perhaps the roadmap of how we get there will take a bit more planning thought and time, particularly given how we have created some hurdles by a) investments in Super Rugby and how to reconcile how commercially a national domestic competition would compete against that and whether could sustain both. b) the niche nature of rugby and hence the ability to sustain commercially a national competition given no FTA presence and indeed just the challenges of getting any mainstream press/coverage for NRC highlights these challenges and c) Rugby in general not having a solid balance sheet to fund such a competition or expansion plans (hence my calls for a rich benefactor as rugby not in financial position to take the risks involved establishing a national domestic competition without some better financial support
In short it is just much harder than I think you outline - like to see it happen but lot of complications and hurdles (commercial ones in particular) to get this up. I think the commercial hurdles are such can't see it short term or probably even medium term.

 

[half]

Could not agree more on how hard it will be and there is a lot of heavy lifting to do.

Further unless everybody wants to head in this direction it will fall over.

My concern is we are on a continual decline and we have a model that simply does not work in an Australian sporting context.

WE need leadership and vision today. Leaders willing to develop a workable concept, sell it to the FTA's and sell it to the broader rugby community and to the broader Australian public.

You talked about no media for the Nobody Really Cares competition. Many in rugby have spoken about its short falls and in its current structure aside from the die hard's it will never grow rugby in Australia.

I guess we have a number of paths we could choice, IMO its about time we stopped choosing the pathway with the least risk. We need to determine what will work and then at least attempt to build it.

 

[wamberal]

A workable concept involving domestic rugby on FTA? Good luck with that one.

 

[half]

A workable concept involving domestic rugby on FTA? Good luck with that one.

Why so negative????

We have a 60 million contract, lets assume the split between National and Super teams is 15 / 45. TBH I think it would be closer to 20 / 40 or 25/ 35 but being ultra conservative lets say 15 / 45.

Lets assume a net cost savings - increase wages comes in about equal.

Meaning we have a 45 million dollar contract and revenue to replace.

Lets play out of smaller and cheaper stadiums and have 10 teams, so roughly 100 games.

Revenue from crowds, shirt sales and IMO say a 12 million dollar media deal. FFS even the A-League got 17 million in their second year .

12 million made up of Fox 10 million and a FTA station 2 million. Please tell in in todays media climate that is a hard sell.

So 45 million less 12 million is 33 million. Lets assume and again being very conservative we have an extra 600, 000 people through the gate at $ 30.00 each thats 18 million.

So 33 million less 18 million is 15 million.

Increase in shirt sales, some new sponsors for the new teams say another 5 million.

The difference is at most 10 million and that is being very conservative.

Why and what are we so scared of. FFS sake have some faith in our game people.

As I posted above lets see what FFA get solely for a 10 team A-League that rates slightly below rugby matches played in Australia and that is our measuring stick.