Battle of the form teams: Reds vs Stormers Brisbane

[Lee Grant]

Reds may need to go back to the Saders game plan for a looksy. It will be based on combating a well organized team which is the problem we have got here.

That's good thinking.

One of the keys will be to deny the Stormers the ball, or their fair share of it. That's what the Reds did against the Crusaders. IIRR I advocated the same thing a week ago for the Bulls game, and it worked: Matfield said he was frustrated that his team couldn't get enough ball for the first hour. In both games the Reds got 60% ball and you know what?: the Force was close to that mark when they smacked the Stormers.

Having the ball more than the other mob doesn't guarantee a win as opponents who seize chances can turn all kinds of stats on their head. But a team will usually win more games with 60% possession than with 50% or 40%.

If you have the same amount of ball as the other lot have, plus half as much again, you can impose your game on them. They are so busy dealing with what you are doing that they don't get the time to put their stamp on the match.

If you run with the ball more instead of kicking it out you are going to have more possession because they will likely do more kicking than you do. And when the Reds do kick the pill it should be as they did against the Bulls: don't kick it out unless they have to. Don't give the Stormers the attacking platform from a set piece they crave, using their brilliant giraffe, Bekker. Don't let them play paint by numbers rugby. Make the game strange for them: give them helter skelter and see how they like it.

As part of the possession imperative the Reds can't turn the ball over 27 times as they did against the Bulls. It is always dangerous trying to use the ball in traffic around contact time, especially when forwards are involved. The Reds create a lot of chances doing so because going to ground with the pill instead allows good seconds for defenders to realign, but the Reds pigs should cool it a bit.

Another thing I have noticed the Reds doing wrongly is going to ground with their heads facing north too much; towards the opponents goal line. If the ball is spilt then it is more likely to be a knock forward. If the players fall east-west in the tackle the ball is not knocked on so often. And if they fall east-west so they are between opponents and the presented ball, it needs a lot of skill and good timing for opponents to fetch it. North-south tackled players are easier meat.

A team that is having a go will always get caught more in north-south tackles but nevertheless the Reds get in too many of them.

As for the problem of the Stormers good defence: they haven't played the Reds yet - and the Queenslanders had scored the 2nd most amount of tries at the end of Week 9. If the Reds keep to their open style of play, but with fewer turnovers, they should compromise the Stormers when realigning their defences as they are normally allowed to do.

 

[JJJ]

I hate to say it, but I think the Reds will be a bit too cocky and ahead-of-themselves after their Bulls win. Van the Man being out won't help either -- he's crucial. The only hope for a Reds win I can see would be 1) the Stormers have one foot on the plane, mentally, and don't really turn up, and/or 2) a huge crowd turns up and the Reds play out of their skins for the sake of the crowd.

But with Van out I suspect Bekker will walk all over us. Should be a cracker, for the first 20 mins at least.

 

[TOCC]

I hate to say it, but I think the Reds will be a bit too cocky and ahead-of-themselves after their Bulls win. Van the Man being out won't help either -- he's crucial. The only hope for a Reds win I can see would be 1) the Stormers have one foot on the plane, mentally, and don't really turn up, and/or 2) a huge crowd turns up and the Reds play out of their skins for the sake of the crowd.

But with Van out I suspect Bekker will walk all over us. Should be a cracker, for the first 20 mins at least.

i dont think cocky is the right word, maybe emotionally exhausted, but i dont think anyone in the Reds team would be heading into this match thinking its going to be easy

 

[RugbyReg]

team named:

Peter Hynes, Rod Davies, Will Chambers, Anthony Fainga'a, Digby Ioane, Quade Cooper, Will Genia (capt); Leroy Houston, Daniel Braid, Scott Higginbotham, Adam Byrnes, Rob Simmons, Laurie Weeks, Saia Fainga'a, Ben Daley. Res: Sean Hardman, Greg Holmes, Jack Kennedy, Ezra Taylor, Jake Schatz, Ben Lucas, Brando Va'aulu.

 

[Scotty]

I think Link will be forced to use more of his bench, and earlier than he did against the Bulls.

 

[Ruggo]

Great post Lee.

It has got me thinking of a few more things. Not kicking out I agree though we will have to chase well and keep the line in shape. Aplon and Habana will be potent in counter attack. This brings me to the other member of the back three. The big Fijian who I wouldn't have a clue on how to spell his name. He is the week link and I would be targeting him in attack and defence. If we are going to kick, keep turning him around. Aplon is a great reader of the game and I am sure he will be looking to cover for him though we have to try. With ball in hand run to his side all night. They will have to plug him up sooner or later creating other oppurtunities.

Variety in attack is also going to be key to cracking the good Stormers defence. I expect Cooper to get a bit more room than last week as I suspect the Stormers will be a bit cagey about singling Cooper out given the way the Reds managed it last week. I liked the way he popped up at second reciever at time like last week which I wouldn't mind seeing again this week. Early pressure is also a key. Chiefs and Blues failed to do this. Don't give the Stormers the chance to set the pace.

My biggest fear for the Reds is fatigue. Lets hope they get a big crowd behind them.

 

[Blue]

Great post Lee.

It has got me thinking of a few more things. Not kicking out I agree though we will have to chase well and keep the line in shape. Aplon and Habana will be potent in counter attack. This brings me to the other member of the back three. The big Fijian who I wouldn't have a clue on how to spell his name. He is the week link and I would be targeting him in attack and defence.

Naqelevuki (sp) may not to play. Reports earlier this week indicated that they will play Fabian Juries, sevens star and one of the best counter attackers in SA. Lots of gas.

The Fijian has done well against the Kiwi sides but against the pace of the Reds I think the Stormers have noted his weakness.

 

[PaarlBok]

Oom Lee maybe right but I think he maybe wrong also. Think this game will be decide by the big men up front. Both the Force and Brumbies fought a hard fight upfront specially scrumtime. Sheppard also played a big role in the lineouts to give them their fair lineout pill. The Stormers tho need their captain and talisman Schalkie to play like he is doing at the moment, he did not played against the Brumbies. He leed them by example and also play a big role in their defense with his scrambling and defending and now have learn the habit to pass much more compare to the past.

We need to at least get a bonuspoint out of this match to head the Aus danger and head home and have to nail the Saders and Brutes at home if we want to get to the business end.

But I know thats not the way Schalkie and Coetzee will go in this match, they take it one game at a time and will just go out there and jol and give it their best shot and stick to their current structure. They have now beat two of the best helter skelter type of teams you can get in S14 rugby by playing to their dissplines. Good old SA gameplan is needed against the Reds, fight it in the forwards, kick out from hand, counter attack but defend like they did the whole season. Take that fancy stepping Red backs backwards, allow them to throw that fancy passes. I expect the Stormers to maul them from lineouts , drive it close and defend like demons. I have a feeling Fourie and/or Habana to score a few intercepts in this match.

 

[Ash]

Anyone have any idea why Va'aulu is still preferred over Morahan?

Is Morahan actually signed for next year? Link wants more solid defence off the bench? Or Link wants someone who can cover wing and centre instead of wing and fullback off the bench?

 

[chief]

Va'aulu, I think Link prefers a defending player, sure Morahan can add some unpredictable attacking flair, as well as speed, but Va'aulu provides defence, and is a safe option, as Morahan's defence can be found wanting.

 

[tranquility]

I can't work it out either. I think by the looks of things Link has essentially put a line through Blair Connor. The added chances for Brando in my opinion must be to see if he has what it takes to be part of the squad moving forward. The answer link would give is that he is more robust, and the SA teams are biggers etc, etc.

Luke is tied up for next year and plays a very similar game to Davies.

 

[Blue]

Stormers – 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (c), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 JC Kritzinger.
Subs: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 JD Moller, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

So Sireli plays. Cooper will test him no doubt. He is terrible when he is made to turn around.

This Stormers pack is starting to develop into something pretty special.

 

[PaarlBok]

Ja also surprise not to see Juries on the bench. JC in , thought JD did fine in the last two matches. Anyway they sure dont come from a bye this time and will go full trottle, who is the ref?

 

[RugbyReg]

Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)

 

[PaarlBok]

Have no problem with Pollock, I think one of the Stormers biggest successe thus far , was their ability to adobt to the refs rulings at the breakdowns. Francois Louw played beautifully since he was the culprit at the warm ups but now he is going great guns. Hope it stay the same on friday.

 

[Godfrey]

I am already designing the legendary burger I am going to pound before this game. I think I'm starting to get more pumped for this than I was the Bulls game. Fuck I'll be proud of the Reds if they can pull this one off.

 

[PaarlBok]

Dont forget to add chilli sauce on your burger, have to bite you back during the match with heart burn!

 

[Godfrey]

If the match goes the way my heart is telling me it will I will already have heart burn.

 

[Ruggo]

Dont forget to add chilli sauce on your burger, have to bite you back during the match with heart burn!

RED hot preferably.

 

[Grandmaster Flash]

Davies out with hammy injury. Va'aulu in with Morahan on the bench.