Australia v British & Irish Lions, 3rd Test (Sydney)
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Wales Fan
Alfred Walker (16)
Few surprising choices from Gatland. Phillips being the main one for me, Murray should be starting at 9. Not too surprised about O'Driscoll to be honest - thought he was struggling with the pace of the game last week. Maybe the intensity of rugby on tour has caught up with him.
I'd have put Tuilagi in before Roberts too, simply as he's had a run out last week. Roberts is a huge risk.
Frontrow changes were always going to happen.
Glad to see O'Brien & Faletau get run outs both deserve it on form. I'd have gone one further and left out Lydiate and put Tipuric at 7, with O'Brien at 6.
Glad there's a lock on the bench this week too.
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GaffaCHinO
Peter Sullivan (51)
Front Row Jones?
Quick Hands
David Wilson (68)
Like the Wallabies XV, but the bench is a big worry. If a midfield back goes down early, it means a lot of shuffling.
No.
Bardon
Peter Fenwicke (45)
Don't think Gatland actually named BOD the captain, the media just assumed he would. Andy Irvine did an interview yesterday where he named BOD as one of the Lions legends. As he's the tour manager it looks like it was a buttering up exercise before Gatland dropped the bombshell.
Hawko
Tony Shaw (54)
Yes. His recent Super form has been good. Whether that form is better than Kimlin's is up for debate - I would say Kimlin has been a bit better, but its not a ridiculous selection.
Scotty
David Codey (61)
Thinking more about the McCalman selection, I believe it all hinges back to Deans wanting to start with Smith. He is throwing the dice a bit here, and good on him for doing it (to an extent) but there is a lot of risk. If injuries and fitness hold up, then we will win, if they don't (ala Brisbane) then we will lose.
For the Brisbane test I said my biggest worries were 1) Injuries and fitness and 2) JOC (James O'Connor) at 10. It proved to be our downfall (although the Lilo one was very unlucky).
For this test Deans is making the following Risk/Reward gamble:
Reward - Starting Smith gives us more grunt at the ruck, more experience, better 'on ball' skills and great linking ability. Furthermore if Smith can last 80 then we can double team them with Hooper, moving Smith to 6 or 8 (a big starting pack and a fast finishing one).
Risk - There is a good chance that Smith (unlike Hooper) can't last 80 minutes, so if we want a replacement for Palu then we have to carry an extra forward on the bench for Smith (ie McCalman). I suspect McCalman will only get on if Smith really starts to struggle - Deans will prefer to have Hooper/Smith/Mowen finish the game. The risk is obviously the cover for the backs and it is increased due to the knowledge that AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) is carrying an injury. If one single back gets injured we have to rely on the uncapped and somewhat inconsistent Mogg to get us home (either at 15 or on the wing).
This whole risk/reward equation could have been negated by starting Hooper and brining Smith on for Palu, however I think Deans lineup will work this best provided there are no injuries to the backs.
For the Brisbane test I said my biggest worries were 1) Injuries and fitness and 2) JOC (James O'Connor) at 10. It proved to be our downfall (although the Lilo one was very unlucky).
For this test Deans is making the following Risk/Reward gamble:
Reward - Starting Smith gives us more grunt at the ruck, more experience, better 'on ball' skills and great linking ability. Furthermore if Smith can last 80 then we can double team them with Hooper, moving Smith to 6 or 8 (a big starting pack and a fast finishing one).
Risk - There is a good chance that Smith (unlike Hooper) can't last 80 minutes, so if we want a replacement for Palu then we have to carry an extra forward on the bench for Smith (ie McCalman). I suspect McCalman will only get on if Smith really starts to struggle - Deans will prefer to have Hooper/Smith/Mowen finish the game. The risk is obviously the cover for the backs and it is increased due to the knowledge that AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) is carrying an injury. If one single back gets injured we have to rely on the uncapped and somewhat inconsistent Mogg to get us home (either at 15 or on the wing).
This whole risk/reward equation could have been negated by starting Hooper and brining Smith on for Palu, however I think Deans lineup will work this best provided there are no injuries to the backs.
BarneySF
Bob Loudon (25)
Also hoping that the 6-2 split doesn't bite us in the arse. We don't really have any fresh/impact backs to come on either for injury or general replacement. Agree with those advocating Horne to be riding pine - if not for some 'grunt' in attack (not really) but shoring up the defence - as opposed to Phipps/Mogg. But at whose expense? Phipps? But then left with no HB cover (if only that guy with the French surname was still around). Don't like the idea of a fresh Tuilagi running at sore/injured AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and tiring/out of position 10/12 channel. (Am I the only one worried about Tuilagi - maybe overestimating his impact? Harking back to Eng-ABs game last year I spose. Really bothered me, even though he did fuck all in the game the week before
.)
JSRF10
Dick Tooth (41)
(Am I the only one worried about Tuilagi - maybe overestimating his impact? Harking back to Eng-ABs game last year I spose. Really bothered me, even though he did fuck all in the game the week before
Manu, The DOC and Davies like all big centres are only a factor if they've got quick ball and the defensive line is passive. If Smith is wrecking the Lions ball/Wallaby scrum is steady/Wallabies come up quickly they are easily stopped. The flip side is the 3 of them, and North all have the turning circle of oil tankers and (Roberts aside) are poor defenders so if the Wallabies can get quick ball they'll make hay
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
He doesn't like being questioned and seems to understand the game well. One game he favours the attacking team, the next the defending. It's all on him how he referees, he won't be pushed around.
RoffsChoice
Jim Lenehan (48)
From the coaching material the IRB sends out occasionally, planning your team should be on the assumptions that your props and locks are effective for 60, all else can last the game. Similarly, to expect at most one injury. So the bench cover should, if you need to pull off the props and a lock at the 60 minute mark, still cover that one injury.
Deans has taken a risk here, knowing that AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) has the shoulder niggle, but similarly he has negated the Mowen risk, seeing as he didn't train on monday. We all know Smith can last 80.
Deans has taken a risk here, knowing that AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) has the shoulder niggle, but similarly he has negated the Mowen risk, seeing as he didn't train on monday. We all know Smith can last 80.
KOB1987
John Eales (66)
instead of which 'two', Phipps & Mogg?
It is what it is
John Solomon (38)
Attention EVERY Aussie in Sydney - Here's the ref for the 3rd Test so be nice to this man if you see him.
Dave Beat
Paul McLean (56)
Could have been
Smith 6
Hooper 7
Palu 8
For an all Marlins back row, but Mowen has been playing great rugby.
I do feel sorry for Gill, he's had a very good year.
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