Which Team Will Win The S15 and Why?

[aussie1st]

Reds, Blues and Crusaders still the teams to beat, the Stormers have dropped out of the race over the past 2 weeks.

 

[cyclopath]

Has anyone's opinion evolved further on this topic after the weekends events.

Of particular attention are:
Crusaders losing to the Cheetahs, Reds beating the Blues, Chiefs beating the Stormers

No.
I still think the Crusaders with the Reds as the best chance to knock them off.

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

You'd have to really start looking at the reds now wouldn't you? Pains me to say it as I hate QC (Quade Cooper) with a passion. Not sure why, but I do.

Blues need to learn how to defend and not be led into playing other teams rugby, Crusaders are just shattered with injuries (although I saw DC and RMC were back for Cheetahs - fat lot of good that did!), Stormers are wobbling a bit. Reds seem to have less injuries and seem to be peaking, as opposed to going backwards.

Either that, or this weekend was just a blip. But I doubt it.

 

[RedsHappy]

Here's the run in. After the Crusaders upset loss last night the Reds and Blues are looking good to finish 1-2. I have colour coded each teams remaining matches against other finals contenders. The Bulls and Tahs have the toughest runs home in my opinion.

Thanks T for doing that. Very helpful, and highlights the highly varied yet rocky paths ahead to Finals-land.

 

[Tangawizi]

It's difficult to see the Reds being dislodged from a Top 2 finish given their current 4 point lead and run home. Even if the Reds pick up zero points against the Crusaders, they will stay in first after week 15 as the Blues will only get 4 points from the bye and the Reds will have won more matches. From there on they have 3 very winnable matches to finish off.

The scrap over the wildcard spots between the Crusaders, Tahs, Sharks, Bulls and Highlanders will be very interesting. Who knows what will happen there. Tough runs home for the Tahs and Bulls though.



2011 Finals Contenders

Australian Conference

Reds - 54 Points - Crusaders (H), Brumbies (H), Force (A), Chiefs (A)
Waratahs - 45 Points - Sharks (A), Bulls (A), Highlanders (H), Brumbies (H)

NZ Conference

Blues - 50 Points - Bye, Chiefs (H), Crusaders (A), Highlanders (H)
Crusaders - 48 Points - Reds (A), Bye, Blues (H), Hurricanes (H)
Highlanders - 43 Points - Lions (H), Force (H), Waratahs (A), Blues (A)

South African Conference

Stormers - 48 Points - Brumbies (A), Rebels (A), Bulls (H), Cheetahs (A)
Sharks - 43 Points - Waratahs (H), Cheetahs (A), Lions (A), Bulls (A)
Bulls - 40 Points - Cheetahs (H), Waratahs (H), Stormers (A), Sharks (H)

 

[rugbysmartarse]

So based on the above (thanks tanga) here is the points I expect each team to take from their remaining games. I'm not going to try and justify picks (too much typing) and of course all sorts of factors can change predictions and results, like injury, weather, etc

Reds: 4-5-5-5 total 72(!)
Tahs: 4-0-4-4 total 57
Blue: 4-5-0-4 total 63
High: 5-4-0-0 total 57
Cru : 0-4-4-5 total 61
Sto : 4-5-4-4 total 65
Bull: 4-4-0-4 total 52
Shar: 0-5-5-0 total 53

Top 6:
reds,
stormers,
Blues,
Saders,
Highlanders,
Tahs

Quite different from my earlier guess at the top 6! I'm sure in 2 weeks time I would change it again

There are 2 big games this weekend which drastically effect the outcome of my predictions. Reds saders and tahs sharks. If the refs lose, they will still likely finish top 2, but it would bump the saders up the ladder to get the extra 4 points
Tahs will have to lift to beat the sharks, but I think they can - ironically to do it I suspect they'll have to play a kicking based territory and pressure game. If they lose they either need to beat the bulls and cross fingers, or start planning next season

It's great to see the comp unfolding in this way, and in the last 5 weeks there are 9 match ups between finals contenders

 

[qwerty51]

You didn't seem to factor in losing BPs which will happen in a few games.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

I know, I figured that while they may add 1-2 points if they come up, they wouldn't drastically change the outcomes, other than maybe between 5/6 and 3/4.

 

[Blue]

I think you are over estimating the Highlanders a little. Will in all likelihood lose to the Blues and Tahs.

I boldly predict that the Bulls got undefeated from here and end on 58 points.

The big game for them is against the Stormers in Cape Town. They have had good success there recently and will play it like its a final.

The Sharks look gone.

 

[PaarlBok]

Dont want to look that far. Brumbies this week the next one.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Hi gents,
I can't see all three South African teams having a hope of making it. The Cheetahs will be taking points from at least one of them over the next month if not more, and they'll cannibalize each others points as well. My guess is that the Bulls won't make it although the Sharks aren't playing with the kind of quality they started the season with. There's a very real chance both fall out. It all depends on how the Tahs travel.
The Crusaders will have a very hard time taking points from Reds and Blues and could drop below the Tahs. That said even from 5th they have the experience and class to win it in the finals anyway.

 

[PaarlBok]

Hi gents,
I can't see all three South African teams having a hope of making it. The Cheetahs will be taking points from at least one of them over the next month if not more, and they'll cannibalize each others points as well. My guess is that the Bulls won't make it although the Sharks aren't playing with the kind of quality they started the season with. There's a very real chance both fall out. It all depends on how the Tahs travel.
The Crusaders will have a very hard time taking points from Reds and Blues and could drop below the Tahs. That said even from 5th they have the experience and class to win it in the finals anyway.

Myself think the other way round. Cant see the Tahs beating either the Sharks nor the Brutes and will fall away. The Cheetahs still init and its a bit like week for week. I do agree with Blou, the Brutes have it between the ears to go all the way. They will probably knock over the Tin Ears/Tahs/Sharks and if everything goes well with the Stormers I think we have a very good change to see last years finalist again in the top 6. Once they get there, they sure had enough practise to win this thing from last year. The Stormers had a double dose of losing in finals after losing to the Sharks in the CC. Watching their players faces after last weeks win against the Blues , show me they are determante like fuck to win it this year.

I dont wanted to post this but cant help myself here.

 

[Tangawizi]

The Kiwis appear to have written off the Tahs chances as well. I hope they prove the doubters wrong, up until the finals start anyway....

Not sure why this bloke has decided that facing both the Tahs and Blues away is a favourable run-in for the Highlanders though.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/5039269/Three-NZ-teams-in-Super-Rugby-playoffs

The prospects of three teams from either New Zealand or South Africa making Super Rugby's six-team playoffs is firming, as is the embarrassment of Australia having just one.

For the second week running the Blues escaped major damage after a loss to remain in second place despite fading to a 28-26 loss to the Stormers at Eden Park.

And in Napier, the Crusaders' remarkable campaign rode the radar and running game of first-five Dan Carter and the second-half scrummaging strength of lock Brad Thorn to a 25-19 win over the Chiefs.

With bye points to bank for the Blues this week and the Crusaders a week later, the two injury-hit sides' prospects of reaching the playoffs look bright, while the Highlanders have a favourable run-in.

South Africa's charge is on and though a string of local derbies in coming weeks will not help the cause of the defending champion Bulls or the Sharks side they beat 32-23 in Durban, one is likely to sneak into the six.

The Bulls' win lifted them to eighth (40 points), just three points behind the Sharks and Highlanders.

Across the Tasman, there may be more angst than optimism about the Waratahs' chances of joining the table-topping Reds in the playoffs.

Former Wallabies coach Eddie Jones has strongly questioned the validity of five Australian franchises and the position of the Force, Brumbies and Rebels near the foot of the table backs his views.

Considering the easy points those stragglers have presented the Australian conference, there could be some red faces if the Waratahs do not qualify.

The Sydneysiders beat the Lions 29-12 and lie fifth overall, but with the Sharks, Bulls and Highlanders to come, will be doing well to still be in the race by the time they meet the Brumbies in the final round.

The All Blacks coaches will be pleased after a weekend that saw their two prized possessions, Carter, with 20 points, and openside Richie McCaw, edge closer to their best in Napier.

They may also have noted wing Zac Guildford who gave a reminder of his talents with a strong all-round display in front of his former Hawke's Bay home crowd.

Most pleasing though for Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder would have been the efforts of his pack, which stepped up in the absence of injured backs like Sonny Bill Williams, Israel Dagg and Sean Maitland, to take the game by the scruff of the neck.

Less pleasing for Graham Henry and co would have been how the Blues let the Stormers off the hook in conceding a late try to resurgent Springbok veteran flanker Schalk Burger at Eden Park.

Ad Feedback It was a blown opportunity for the Blues, who sat back on their first-half lead to let the Stormers back into the match and paid the price.

Burger's try was controversial, with the Blues players believing he was short of the line, but inconclusive evidence forced the TMO to rightly award the benefit of the doubt to the attacking side after being asked if there was any reason not to award the try.

In the other two matches of the round, the Cheetahs romped to their fourth successive win 41-21 over the Melbourne Rebels in Bloemfontein, while the Western Force and the Brumbies drew 13-13 in Perth.

 

[Scotty]

mate, the saders are beating the best sides away without Carter, McCaw, Franks, Ellis & Thorn.

They all should be there or abouts for the finals

Sorry just catching up with this thread and couldn't resist quoting this. Mccaw and Carter come back and they lose to the cheetahs.

Anyway my point is that if the reds get a home final they will be the favourites. In fact any team that gets the home final is likely to favourite.

 

[Scotty]

I think you are over estimating the Highlanders a little. Will in all likelihood lose to the Blues and Tahs.

I boldly predict that the Bulls got undefeated from here and end on 58 points.

The big game for them is against the Stormers in Cape Town. They have had good success there recently and will play it like its a final.

The Sharks look gone.

I agree. I think the bulls will make it, with the sharks missing out although the tahs may also struggle. This weekend will cause some big changes.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

I get the impression the bulls are not as potent with fdp. Fortunately for them he's only out against easier teams. It's the stormers and sharks that are their big matches, but they probably need to take all 4 to make it

 

[qwerty51]

And in Napier, the Crusaders' remarkable campaign rode the radar and running game of first-five Dan Carter and the second-half scrummaging strength of lock Brad Thorn to a 25-19 win over the Chiefs.

I'm glad someone else noticed. I mentioned this in the game thread, Brad Thorn is one amazing scrummaging lock.

 

[Charlemagne]

Have to go with the Saders after watching the match this weekend, Dan Carter is a genius and I believe if fit he will go a long way to winning the world cup for New Zealand, I know you can't say one man can make such a difference but he reads a game so well !!

 

[Blue]

I get the impression the bulls are not as potent with fdp. Fortunately for them he's only out against easier teams. It's the stormers and sharks that are their big matches, but they probably need to take all 4 to make it

Fourie DuP was getting back to form but before this weekend he was off. He played the type of tactical game we have become used to and his positional play and kicking was superb.

However, F Hougaard is a more than able replacement. Remember we won 2010 with Hougaard, not Fourie who was out almost the whole season. If the pack plays like they did against the Sharks Hougaard is a real danger around the fringes.

I still back us to win 4/4 from here.

 

[Bullrush]

Have to go with the Saders after watching the match this weekend, Dan Carter is a genius and I believe if fit he will go a long way to winning the world cup for New Zealand, I know you can't say one man can make such a difference but he reads a game so well !!

Carter was great on the weekend. I wonder if he has been playing with some really niggly injuries the last year or so cause I haven't seen him attack and break the line like that for a while. He just seemed supremely confident....and that fend he put on Mils was mean.

Fourie DuP was getting back to form but before this weekend he was off. He played the type of tactical game we have become used to and his positional play and kicking was superb.

However, F Hougaard is a more than able replacement. Remember we won 2010 with Hougaard, not Fourie who was out almost the whole season. If the pack plays like they did against the Sharks Hougaard is a real danger around the fringes.

I still back us to win 4/4 from here.

I really like Hougaard. I couldn't understand why it took so long for De Villiers to play him last year in the 3N.

Ummmm....I take that back....it's De Villiers - I fully understand....lol