Which Team Will Win The S15 and Why?

[barbarian]

I mentioned self belief earlier, and I think this is very important. Teams need self belief to win titles. The Blues teams in 1996 and 97 had self belief, as did the Crusaders teams of the late 90s and early 00s and the Bulls teams in recent years. They just knew they could beat anyone, and win anywhere. And the 2011 Blues have this kind of self belief this season. Not only did they convincingly outplay the Crusaders in week one, but they have shown that they can win the close contests this season, and win in a variety of ways. They can tear teams apart with all the dynamism and razzle dazzle in the world, but they can also win ugly and win the close, tightly fought arm wrestles.

Yeah not sure about this one. The last few weeks weren't 'tightly fought arm wrestles' to me, they were scrappy games where both sides deserved to lose. The Blues edged both games, but were greatly helped by the incompetence of the opposition. If Keats (or was it Eaton?) held the ball over the line then the Canes probably would have won on Friday, and what of the self belief then?

I think at the moment the Reds, Stormers and Blues are on about level footing. A lot will depend on injuries and the bounce of the ball from here on in.

 

[Hawko]

I think if anyone is going to challenge the Crusaders this season it will be the Blues. Again this is purely speculative, as any one of four teams can still win this title, but I think the Blues have the talent, self belief and all round solidity to their game to counter the Saders. And they showed this in round 1 when they blew their Southern rivals off the park.

The Blues have a very well rounded squad. Like the Crusaders they boast a very potent back division, some skilful halves and a strong, workaholic forward pack that generally holds its own at set piece time. They are probably weaker in the backrow and the halves than a full strength Crusaders team, but their tight five convincingly outplayed their Crusaders counterparts when the two teams met early season. Equally, with Payne playing so well at 13, and McAlister much improved at 12, they are one of the few teams in SANZAR that can match the Crusaders in the midfield.

I mentioned self belief earlier, and I think this is very important. Teams need self belief to win titles. The Blues teams in 1996 and 97 had self belief, as did the Crusaders teams of the late 90s and early 00s and the Bulls teams in recent years. They just knew they could beat anyone, and win anywhere. And the 2011 Blues have this kind of self belief this season. Not only did they convincingly outplay the Crusaders in week one, but they have shown that they can win the close contests this season, and win in a variety of ways. They can tear teams apart with all the dynamism and razzle dazzle in the world, but they can also win ugly and win the close, tightly fought arm wrestles.

I agree with this with one caveat. I think the Blues need to win their conference and get the week off. If the Saders overrun them then I don't think they'll win from 4th place having to play two away matches.

 

[wamberal]

One advantage the Reds have is that they are a very young team and will probably continue to chance their arm and play a pretty relaxed, nerveless, sort of game (q.v. Quade Cooper). On the other hand, they have a fair bit of strength and commitment throughout their ranks and are being cleverly coached.

Injuries, the rub of the green, would have to go their way, but I think they are a solid chance of winning the thing.

 

[Ali's Choice]

Yeah not sure about this one. The last few weeks weren't 'tightly fought arm wrestles' to me, they were scrappy games where both sides deserved to lose. The Blues edged both games, but were greatly helped by the incompetence of the opposition. If Keats (or was it Eaton?) held the ball over the line then the Canes probably would have won on Friday, and what of the self belief then?

I was referring more to the Blues previous win over the Highlanders. I'd argue that was indeed closely fought arm wrestle and a tough win for the Blues over a decent oponent. My point was that the Blues have shown that they can win pretty and win ugly this season. This season they can play open, expansive rugby but they can also shut teams down with their defense and grind out tight wins.

 

[barbarian]

I was referring more to the Blues previous win over the Highlanders. I'd argue that was indeed closely fought arm wrestle and a tough win for the Blues over a decent oponent. My point was that the Blues have shown that they can win pretty and win ugly this season. This season they can play open, expansive rugby but they can also shut teams down with their defense and grind out tight wins.

You could say the same about the Reds in their victories over the Stormers and Waratahs. I think this Friday will show us a great deal.

 

[Scotty]

Pretty much what I am thinking. Blues or Saders.

Only giving the Reds a chance if they can manage to get a home grand final.

 

[Ali's Choice]

You could say the same about the Reds in their victories over the Stormers and Waratahs. I think this Friday will show us a great deal.

I'm still to be convinced about the Reds. Though you're right when you suggest that they too have shown that they can win flashy and win the tight contests in 2011 as well. I'm just not sold on their pack. They've got arguably the best bacline in SANZAR but I'm not sure about how well their tight five, loosies, or their set piece will stand up under finals pressure. In saying that, they've performed very well this season against some good forward packs (Stormers, Tahs). I agree with you that this Friday will show us a great deal about the Reds, the Blues and their respective progress.

 

[qwerty51]

All I can say is you can get 2.10 at some places on the Crusaders still. Multi that into the Kiwis at the WC for better money than bank interest.

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

I want to see the AB's fall over in the RWC as much as any non-Kiwi, but this comment is a bit disrespectful. Nonu has been a warrior and has put the fear of the Rugby God's into plenty of opposition players over the years. He may be on the downward side of his career but to be honest, he doesn't need to prove anything to me.

Anytime my team (Reds or Wobs) plays against a team with Nonu in it, I know that things just got a bit harder.

Was not intending to be disrespectful. I just don't think Nonu is as good as some think he is.

 

[BDA]

The one stat that really matters to that home ground advantage is everything in Super rugby. Whichever team finishes at the top of the log is in the Drivers seat.

For the Reds, these next two games against the Blues/Crusaders will define their season. If they can win both, they could top the log. And if they get a home GF at Suncorp theyll win. It's important they will finish 2 at least (im hoping the Stormers drop some games on tour).

My prediction for the final log is
1.Saders
2.Reds
3.Sharks
4.Blues
5.Stormers
6.Tahs

finals
Sharks v Tahs - Sharks win
Blues v Stormers - Blues win
Reds v Blues - Reds win
Saders v Sharks - Saders
Saders v Reds - Saders

I would be very proud to be a queenslander if the boys made it to the final. win or lose.

 

[Tordah]

I would be very proud to be a queenslander if the boys made it to the final. win or lose.

Playing the way they did the last 25 games you should be proud anyhow

 

[ACT Crusader]

I'm still to be convinced about the Reds. Though you're right when you suggest that they too have shown that they can win flashy and win the tight contests in 2011 as well. I'm just not sold on their pack. They've got arguably the best bacline in SANZAR but I'm not sure about how well their tight five, loosies, or their set piece will stand up under finals pressure. In saying that, they've performed very well this season against some good forward packs (Stormers, Tahs). I agree with you that this Friday will show us a great deal about the Reds, the Blues and their respective progress.

I personally think the Reds success has been built off their fatties rather than their flashies.

Beau, Higginbottom, Finger and the locks have shown a helluva alot at the collisions.

Their backline IMO has been a touch inconsistent throughout games and that has alot to do with positional and personnel changes, but also some erratic play

 

[Ali's Choice]

I personally think the Reds success has been built off their fatties rather than their flashies.

Beau, Higginbottom, Finger and the locks have shown a helluva alot at the collisions.

Their backline IMO has been a touch inconsistent throughout games and that has alot to do with positional and personnel changes, but also some erratic play

I'm not saying that the Reds pack has been poor. In fact, I think the Reds forwards have played very well as a unit, and largely exceeded expectations. However, what I was alluding to in my previous post is that I am not convinced that they have the quality in their pack to win finals games against the very best teams. I think the issue is related to a lack of experience, and personnel. Case in point, how many Reds forwards would get a start in a full strength Crusaders XV? Equally, has a team ever won a Super title with a scrum as weak as the Reds?

 

[BDA]

has a team ever won a Super title with a scrum as weak as the Reds?

I'm not sure Reds scrum is that weak. Their first choice front row daley/Fainga'a/slipper has been solid this year. They outscrummaged the stormers and the bulls. The scrum is woeful without Slipper though as seen in the Waratahs game. Although I think the tahs have the 2nd best scrum in the compy, behind the saders.

The scrum battle this weekend will be interesting. the Blues scrum is solid, and they have used some tricky tactics against some of the stronger scrums this season. They very rarely push the opposition backwards, back they often disrupt by turning the scrum or driving the scrum towards one side of the field. very sneaky stuff. the saders on the other hand have a a pure class scrum.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds get the upper hand at scrum time this weekend.

 

[Blue]

I'm not sure Reds scrum is that weak. Their first choice front row daley/Fainga'a/slipper has been solid this year. They outscrummaged the stormers and the bulls. The scrum is woeful without Slipper though as seen in the Waratahs game. Although I think the tahs have the 2nd best scrum in the compy, behind the saders.

The scrum battle this weekend will be interesting. the Blues scrum is solid, and they have used some tricky tactics against some of the stronger scrums this season. They very rarely push the opposition backwards, back they often disrupt by turning the scrum or driving the scrum towards one side of the field. very sneaky stuff. the saders on the other hand have a a pure class scrum.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Reds get the upper hand at scrum time this weekend.

Whilst the Reds scrum with Slipper and Dailey has been solid, I don't think it has dominated anyone and should about achieve parity with the Blues.

 

[BDA]

I agree you'll never see the Reds scrum dominate, but they have got the better of some of their opponents this year. if not by much

 

[Blue]

I agree you'll never see the Reds scrum dominate, but they have got the better of some of their opponents this year. if not by much

Clearly I missed it and I have watched every game.

 

[Scotty]

I'm not saying that the Reds pack has been poor. In fact, I think the Reds forwards have played very well as a unit, and largely exceeded expectations. However, what I was alluding to in my previous post is that I am not convinced that they have the quality in their pack to win finals games against the very best teams. I think the issue is related to a lack of experience, and personnel. Case in point, how many Reds forwards would get a start in a full strength Crusaders XV? Equally, has a team ever won a Super title with a scrum as weak as the Reds?

By best teams do you mean teams like the Saders, Bulls and Stormers last year, or Stormers this year?

Last year they beat 3 of the 4 finalists.

 

[DPK]

Last year they beat 3 of the 4 finalists.

At home. I think that will be the key to the Reds season; finding the dominance they found vs the Bulls and Stormers last year away from home, or getting high enough on the ladder to secure the home finals.

 

[Ruggo]

At home. I think that will be the key to the Reds season; finding the dominance they found vs the Bulls and Stormers last year away from home, or getting high enough on the ladder to secure the home finals.

You can tick Stormers off that list. Newlands is by no means an easy place to win away but we got the job done. Personally I think the week off will be more valuable than the home final. I think the 2011 Reds are mentally strong enough to win away from home.