Which Team Will Win The S15 and Why?

[Victorian Reds Fan]

Firstly Nonu is hugely overrated. He is a poor man's Umaga. Secondly, the plays you mentioned are in the minority. Why have the ABs only won a single wc?

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

One game out of god-knows-how-many they have won over the years is the proof? Hmm, I guess we just have to disagree, so I'll leave it be. Rule 10 invoked.

The Chiefs game is just one from recent memory. I have seen them play numerous times in Super Rugby (have been watching Super Rugby basically since it started) and it happens a lot.

Yep, agree to disagree and move on.

 

[Slim 293]

Firstly Nonu is hugely overrated. He is a poor man's Umaga. Secondly, the plays you mentioned are in the minority. Why have the ABs only won a single wc?

What does the All Blacks' world cup success have to do with the Crusaders' titles aspirations?

Particularly when they've won 7 titles...

 

[ACT Crusader]

Firstly Nonu is hugely overrated. He is a poor man's Umaga. Secondly, the plays you mentioned are in the minority. Why have the ABs only won a single wc?

What a strange post.

Firstly you may want to watch a tad more rugby than just the last year or so. Secondly you may want to concentrate on let's say Woodcock's last 10 tests vs OZ or Mealamu's last dozen tests vs the Boks to see that those type of plays are not a minority.

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

What does the All Blacks' world cup success have to do with the Crusaders' titles aspirations?

Particularly when they've won 7 titles...

Many Crusaders play for the ABs and they have a similar game plan.

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

What a strange post.

Firstly you may want to watch a tad more rugby than just the last year or so. Secondly you may want to concentrate on let's say Woodcock's last 10 tests vs OZ or Mealamu's last dozen tests vs the Boks to see that those type of plays are not a minority.

I watch plenty of rugby. We will just have to disagree and move on.

 

[Slim 293]

Many Crusaders play for the ABs and they have a similar game plan.

OK, so you're saying the Crusaders can't win this year because the All Blacks haven't won a World Cup in a while (which in itself makes absolutely zero sense)...

But the Crusaders have won 7 Super titles in that same time... once again pointing out the obvious that the Crusaders' super rugby success and the All Blacks failure at world cups is mutually exclusive...

Your logic is bunk...

 

[Gagger]

Everyone seems to be saying the same thing - Saders are favourites

But who can bring the game plan to beat them in a semi/final?

That team will need to do one thing above all else: Impose structure.
Get the ball to touch, impose at set-piece, make them commit at the tackle contest, slow the game.

It's why the Bulls could beat them last year, who can do it this year? I would have said it was the Stormers until last weekend, but then they are missing a few key players in that regard. Will Peter Grant coming back make the difference?

As for the Reds hopes, the touch finding that Genia and Cooper have been doing is a key element to me. Pack will need to be 100% right though.

 

[ChargerWA]

I think really only the Blues or Reds are genuine threats to the Saders. Stormers having lost to both the Reds and Saders at home has them sliding in my opinion. Looking at the run home, I think the Sharks will finish over the top of them in the SA conference.

 

[Gagger]

I don't see how the Blues are going to impose structure on the Saders, although they did give them a good armwrestle in the wet and slowed their ball in round 1 for the win

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

OK, so you're saying the Crusaders can't win this year because the All Blacks haven't won a World Cup in a while (which in itself makes absolutely zero sense)...

But the Crusaders have won 7 Super titles in that same time... once again pointing out the obvious that the Crusaders' super rugby success and the All Blacks failure at world cups is mutually exclusive...

Your logic is bunk...

I am saying that the Saders can, and probably will, win the Super Rugby title on the back mainly of counter-attacking rugby. However, I am also saying that the All Blacks, who have a similar game style to the Crusaders, will not won the wc because while that game plan is effective in Super Rugby it is not at the wc.

 

[ACT Crusader]

I am saying that the Saders can, and probably will, win the Super Rugby title on the back mainly of counter-attacking rugby. However, I am also saying that the All Blacks, who have a similar game style to the Crusaders, will not won the wc because while that game plan is effective in Super Rugby it is not at the wc.

So when the Crusaders were attacking off 2nd and 3rd phase ball against the Stormers and SBW was making offloads to put players into gaps, that was counter-attack rugby? Or maybe it was Read taking a regulation hit up and getting quick ball out to Berquist to kick for territory was counter-attack rugby?

Again the comparisons between the ABs and Saders just doesn't stack up. Yes there are Sader players there but the likes of Mealamu, Woodcock, Kaino, Cowan, Mils, Nonu and Conrad have a major influence in the way the ABs attack and they don't play a Sader style of rugby.

 

[PaarlBok]

S15 aint test rugby and test rugby aint WC tournaments. Just plain stupid to read success in S15 will gaurentee 3 Nations success. Actually feel the 3 Nations will be a watered down affair this year. We'll see a lot of form S15 getting a change and WC stars putting in cottonwool.

 

[PaarlBok]

We'll have a run alright but I think away to the Sharks will be what sinks our hopes and we'll come up short. At least I will be able to say I predicted it but that's a small consolation.

Thats the Sharks next fixture.
SA Fixtures:
Stormers:Chiefs(A),Blues(A),Brumbies(A),Rebels(A),Brutes(H),Tin Ears (A)
Sharks:Brutes(H),Tahs(H),Tin Ears(A),Lions(A),Brutes(A)
Brutes:Rebels(H),Sharks(A),Tin Ears(H),Tahs(H),Stormers(A),Sharks(H)
Tin Ears:Saders(H),Rebels(H),Brutes(A),Sharks(H),Stormers(H)

 

[PaarlBok]

Also saw the Tin Ears jumped a few over the weekend.

Combined Log
Pos Team P W D L B PF PA PD TF TA BPts Pts
1 Blues 11 9 1 1 1 288 215 73 31 22 5 47
2 Reds 11 9 0 2 1 318 208 110 34 22 5 45
3 Crusaders 11 8 1 2 1 336 179 157 38 19 6 44
4 DHL Stormers 10 8 0 2 2 233 142 91 17 8 3 43
5 Sharks 11 7 0 4 1 279 215 64 30 17 7 39
6 Waratahs 11 7 0 4 1 257 177 80 30 13 4 36
-----------------------------------------------------------
7 Highlanders 11 7 0 4 1 224 224 0 25 22 3 35
8 Vodacom Bulls 10 5 0 5 2 240 257 -17 22 27 3 31
9 Chiefs 11 4 0 7 1 238 252 -14 25 23 5 25
10 Toyota Cheetahs 11 3 0 8 1 288 297 -9 27 34 9 25
11 Hurricanes 11 3 1 7 1 223 296 -73 22 31 6 24
12 Brumbies 10 2 0 8 2 217 307 -90 22 28 6 22
13 Western Force 11 3 1 7 1 223 307 -84 14 31 3 21
14 Melbourne Rebels 11 3 0 8 1 206 383 -177 22 50 3 19
15 MTN Lions 11 1 0 10 1 227 338 -111 22 34 6 14

 

[daz]

Actually feel the 3 Nations will be a watered down affair this year. We'll see a lot of form S15 getting a change and WC stars putting in cottonwool.

Not sure about that Paarl. Not from the Wallabies viewpoint anyway. Deans seems to prefer his players to play and play hard.

I am willing to bet each 3N coach has a pretty good idea who is going to be in the over-all RWC squad. Having said that, I think we can agree that the 3N coaches will be using the tournament to put some final touches on their playbooks.

 

[daz]

Firstly Nonu is hugely overrated. He is a poor man's Umaga.

I want to see the AB's fall over in the RWC as much as any non-Kiwi, but this comment is a bit disrespectful. Nonu has been a warrior and has put the fear of the Rugby God's into plenty of opposition players over the years. He may be on the downward side of his career but to be honest, he doesn't need to prove anything to me.

Anytime my team (Reds or Wobs) plays against a team with Nonu in it, I know that things just got a bit harder.

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

Not sure about that Paarl. Not from the Wallabies viewpoint anyway. Deans seems to prefer his players to play and play hard.

I am willing to bet each 3N coach has a pretty good idea who is going to be in the over-all RWC squad. Having said that, I think we can agree that the 3N coaches will be using the tournament to put some final touches on their playbooks.

Agree. There will be no resting of Wallaby players ahead of the RWC, unless they are marginal with injuries. The best way to get and stay fit in a contact sport is to spend the minutes out on the paddock playing IMHO.

 

[Scotty]

Saders are clear favourites of course, and they deserve to be. I can't comment on the Blues because I haven't seen any of their recent games, but they often play too loose to win big finals.

The Reds are a good chance if they can finish in 1st or 2nd, but if they don't, I wouldn't hold up much hope of them having to win away in the semi to make the final. For them this friday is a massive game. If they can get the win, then it will go a long way to ensuring a top two spot, and in the meantime helping the Saders get over the Blues. Visa versa if the Blues get the win, then they would just about be marked down as top two. Big, big game, and we will know a lot more about possible finals make up after this weekend.

I feel the South African teams will struggle if they can't get a home semi. Just about counting them out, as if they come outside the top two they will likely have to play 2 or 3 finals games away from home to win. Tough ask.

 

[Ali's Choice]

I think if anyone is going to challenge the Crusaders this season it will be the Blues. Again this is purely speculative, as any one of four teams can still win this title, but I think the Blues have the talent, self belief and all round solidity to their game to counter the Saders. And they showed this in round 1 when they blew their Southern rivals off the park.

The Blues have a very well rounded squad. Like the Crusaders they boast a very potent back division, some skilful halves and a strong, workaholic forward pack that generally holds its own at set piece time. They are probably weaker in the backrow and the halves than a full strength Crusaders team, but their tight five convincingly outplayed their Crusaders counterparts when the two teams met early season. Equally, with Payne playing so well at 13, and McAlister much improved at 12, they are one of the few teams in SANZAR that can match the Crusaders in the midfield.

I mentioned self belief earlier, and I think this is very important. Teams need self belief to win titles. The Blues teams in 1996 and 97 had self belief, as did the Crusaders teams of the late 90s and early 00s and the Bulls teams in recent years. They just knew they could beat anyone, and win anywhere. And the 2011 Blues have this kind of self belief this season. Not only did they convincingly outplay the Crusaders in week one, but they have shown that they can win the close contests this season, and win in a variety of ways. They can tear teams apart with all the dynamism and razzle dazzle in the world, but they can also win ugly and win the close, tightly fought arm wrestles.