Which Team Will Win The S15 and Why?

[Ali's Choice]

By best teams do you mean teams like the Saders, Bulls and Stormers last year, or Stormers this year?

Last year they beat 3 of the 4 finalists.

I said that I didn't think they had the pack to "win finals" against the very best teams. Finals rugby is different to round robin rugby. Without denigrating the Reds achievements last year, the Crusaders took them very lightly in round 2 and got punished for doing so, and the Bulls caught them at the end of an arduous road trip. Come finals teams, teams don't tend to be as complacent as they might be during the regular season.

 

[fatprop]

The Crusaders have simply the best squad by far and are odds on favourites at home, if the Reds get the home final they would be a minor chance at best.

 

[Scotty]

The Crusaders have simply the best squad by far and are odds on favourites at home, if the Reds get the home final they would be a minor chance at best.

I would say the Reds are only a minor chance now, but if they get a home final I don't think you could say they were only a 'minor' chance.

 

[Richo]

Well, if you take minor to mean "not the favourites" then I'd say that's true.

 

[fatprop]

I would say the Reds are only a minor chance now, but if they get a home final I don't think you could say they were only a 'minor' chance.

mate, the saders are beating the best sides away without Carter, McCaw, Franks, Ellis & Thorn.

They all should be there or abouts for the finals

 

[#1 Tah]

If we manage to get Horne, Palu, TPN and Waugh all on the park, the Tahs will win.


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[TOCC]

mate, the saders are beating the best sides away without Carter, McCaw, Franks, Ellis & Thorn.

not ignoring the fact that the crusaders have still lost 2 games this season

 

[BDA]

If the Reds beat the Saders and get a home final, they will be clear favourites

 

[Ali's Choice]

not ignoring the fact that the crusaders have still lost 2 games this season

They certainly aren't invincible. In fact, this season looks to be the closest title race for a lomg time. And for the Crusaders, not playing a single game at their home stadium is going to hurt their title chances. But given this thread by nature is hypothetical, and based purely on speculation, I think they are the the most likely team to win the title. With the Blues, Reds and Stormers the other contenders.

 

[ACT Crusader]

I said that I didn't think they had the pack to "win finals" against the very best teams. Finals rugby is different to round robin rugby. Without denigrating the Reds achievements last year, the Crusaders took them very lightly in round 2 and got punished for doing so, and the Bulls caught them at the end of an arduous road trip. Come finals teams, teams don't tend to be as complacent as they might be during the regular season.

Interested in what you base this on. I know it's a hypothectical thread, but there must be some reasons behind such an assertion.

 

[Ali's Choice]

Interested in what you base this on. I know it's a hypothectical thread, but there must be some reasons behind such an assertion.

There certainly are. Can I just say to begin with that I am not trying to disrespect the Reds when I say I have doubts about their pack's ability to win finals against the very best teams. I live in QLD and they are by far and away my favorite Australian team.

Firstly, their pack is relatively inexperienced. Both in terms of Super Rugby and test caps. Experience comes to the fore during finals, and the Reds pack is certainly less experienced than any of their top four rivals. During finals, the pressure and intensity of play lifts markedly when compared to regular season games. Experienced players are often in a better position to deal with this pressure. The Reds pack lacks experience to draw upon.

Secondly, how many of the Reds forwards have won a Super Rugby finals match? (Edit) Three. They have not really shown that they can take their game to the next level, and deliver under finals intensity. Contrast this to the Stormers, Crusaders, Bulls and even Sharks packs, who have all won semi finals over the past 3-4 years. Given that none of the current Reds players have ever won a finals game individually, let alone as a team, I think it's clear why people like myself might doubt their ability to win finals until they have shown that they actually can.

Thirdly, how many genuinely world class players does the Reds pack boast? Whilst Rugby is clearly a team game, and a champion team will always beat a team of champions, personnel does make a difference. The quality of players in a team does make a difference. Even at Wallaby level, there will be few Reds forwards in Deans' first choice 22. Whilst there a few young Reds forwards whose stars are certainly on the rise, I think it's understandable that people like myself might doubt their ability to compete with the very best packs in SANZAR which are over-flowing with All Black and Springbok stars.

Lastly, my sceptism towards the Reds pack, and team more generally, is based largely on what happened in 2010. They looked like absolute world beaters last year, until a late season fade saw them miss out on the semi finals. They still have to show that they can maintain their form late into the season, and peak when it counts come finals times. Plenty of teams have looked good mid-season, only to crumble under the pressure and expectation of an impending finals series, and until the Reds show otherwise I will have lingering doubts about their ability to win finals.

 

[Victorian Reds Fan]

There certainly are. Can I just say to begin with that I am not trying to disrespect the Reds when I say I have doubts about their pack's ability to win finals against the very best teams. I live in QLD and they are by far and away my favorite Australian team.

Firstly, their pack is relatively inexperienced. Both in terms of Super Rugby and test caps. Experience comes to the fore during finals, and the Reds pack is certainly less experienced than any of their top four rivals. During finals, the pressure and intensity of play lifts markedly when compared to regular season games. Experienced players are often in a better position to deal with this pressure. The Reds pack lacks experience to draw upon.

Secondly, the none of the Reds forwards have won a Super Rugby finals match. They have not shown that they can take their game to the next level, and deliver under finals intensity. Contrast this to the Stormers, Crusaders, Bulls and even Sharks packs, who have all won semi finals over the past 3-4 years. Given that none of the current Reds players have ever won a finals game individually, let alone as a team, I think it's clear why people like myself might doubt their ability to win finals until they have shown that they actually can.

Thirdly, how many genuinely world class players does the Reds pack boast? Whilst Rugby is clearly a team game, and a champion team will always beat a team of champions, personnel does make a difference. The quality of players in a team does make a difference. Even at Wallaby level, there will be few Reds forwards in Deans' first choice 22. Whilst there a few young Reds forwards whose stars are certainly on the rise, I think it's understandable that people like myself might doubt their ability to compete with the very best packs in SANZAR which are over-flowing with All Black and Springbok stars.

Lastly, my sceptism towards the Reds pack, and team more generally, is based largely on what happened in 2010. They looked like absolute world beaters last year, until a late season fade saw them miss out on the semi finals. They still have to show that they can maintain their form late into the season, and peak when it counts come finals times. Plenty of teams have looked good mid-season, only to crumble under the pressure and expectation of an impending finals series, and until the Reds show otherwise I will have lingering doubts about their ability to win finals.

Well thought out post, but we only missed the final because we lost to the Tahs in the 80th minute early in the season.

 

[Ali's Choice]

Well thought out post, but we only missed the final because we lost to the Tahs in the 80th minute early in the season.

That loss was desperately unlucky and certainly came back to haunt them in their quest for the finals. However I'd also argue that the Reds losses to the Brumbies in round 12, and Canes in round 13 were equally damaging.

 

[Brumbies Guy]

Secondly, the none of the Reds forwards have won a Super Rugby finals match.

Radike Samo, Guy Shepherdson and Beau Robinson have.

 

[Ali's Choice]

Radike Samo, Guy Shepherdson and Beau Robinson have.

I stand corrected. My broader point still stands though, as a team they haven't made the finals and even individually there is little history of finals success.

 

[Ruggo]

There certainly are. Can I just say to begin with that I am not trying to disrespect the Reds when I say I have doubts about their pack's ability to win finals against the very best teams. I live in QLD and they are by far and away my favorite Australian team.

Firstly, their pack is relatively inexperienced. Both in terms of Super Rugby and test caps. Experience comes to the fore during finals, and the Reds pack is certainly less experienced than any of their top four rivals. During finals, the pressure and intensity of play lifts markedly when compared to regular season games. Experienced players are often in a better position to deal with this pressure. The Reds pack lacks experience to draw upon.

Secondly, the none of the Reds forwards have won a Super Rugby finals match. They have not shown that they can take their game to the next level, and deliver under finals intensity. Contrast this to the Stormers, Crusaders, Bulls and even Sharks packs, who have all won semi finals over the past 3-4 years. Given that none of the current Reds players have ever won a finals game individually, let alone as a team, I think it's clear why people like myself might doubt their ability to win finals until they have shown that they actually can.

Thirdly, how many genuinely world class players does the Reds pack boast? Whilst Rugby is clearly a team game, and a champion team will always beat a team of champions, personnel does make a difference. The quality of players in a team does make a difference. Even at Wallaby level, there will be few Reds forwards in Deans' first choice 22. Whilst there a few young Reds forwards whose stars are certainly on the rise, I think it's understandable that people like myself might doubt their ability to compete with the very best packs in SANZAR which are over-flowing with All Black and Springbok stars.

Lastly, my sceptism towards the Reds pack, and team more generally, is based largely on what happened in 2010. They looked like absolute world beaters last year, until a late season fade saw them miss out on the semi finals. They still have to show that they can maintain their form late into the season, and peak when it counts come finals times. Plenty of teams have looked good mid-season, only to crumble under the pressure and expectation of an impending finals series, and until the Reds show otherwise I will have lingering doubts about their ability to win finals.

Firstly, thank you for taking the time to back your views up with constructive detail.

On the world class player front I would say James Horwill but injury has been unkind to him and he has lacked opportunity to prove it. The bloke has the stuff though.

The weight of injury was a huge factor in us not making the finals last year. Losing both starting locks in the first 25 minutes was fatal in the Brumbies game last year which was where the wheels fell off. It can be seen as a lame excuse but it is also compelling.

 

[TOCC]

Has anyone's opinion evolved further on this topic after the weekends events.

Of particular attention are:
Crusaders losing to the Cheetahs, Reds beating the Blues, Chiefs beating the Stormers

 

[RedsHappy]

Has anyone's opinion evolved further on this topic after the weekends events.

Of particular attention are:
Crusaders losing to the Cheetahs, Reds beating the Blues, Chiefs beating the Stormers

Yes indeed TOCC! How the best events can overtake the best opinions. Perhaps there will now be new opinions?

 

[Tangawizi]

Here's the run in. After the Crusaders upset loss last night the Reds and Blues are looking good to finish 1-2.

I have colour coded each teams remaining matches against other finals contenders. The Bulls and Tahs have the toughest runs home in my opinion.

 

[Ali's Choice]

Whilst I was very disappointed with the manner of the Crusaders loss early this morning, I am confident that as long as we can qualify for the top 6, we will still have a genuine chance of winning the title. This is because we are used to travelling and will be welcoming back All Blacks such as Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Israel Dagg and Andy Ellis.