Whilst I hate this decision to cut a team, it baffles me why the Brumbies have been excluded from the discussion.. All teams should realistically be on the chopping block including Reds and Tahs.
Each team should be asssesed through a combination of economic feasibility, opportunity cost and ability and willingness for cultural reform. It's fair to say that NSW and QLD would be retained purely on opportunity costs for Rugby Union pathways and the economic costs to the broadcasters, but it should still be examined case by case.
How did the ARU come to the decision that it was purely between the Force and Rebels, why were no other options considered?
IMHO if you are going to go down the criteria line than I think its fair to actually consider and examine the criteria and its relevancy to the issues.
Bottom line is that the consideration around cutting a Super Rugby team is wholly about Super Rugby, nothing more or less. This is about attendance, rating, support base and economic viability.
When it comes to cultural reform, based on the economic situation Rugby finds itself in it is arguable that the two powerhouse unions would benefit the most from reforms that could potentially yield better results for the game overall. Willingness to change in Rugby is like Trump and reality. They don't go together and unlikely they ever will.
As far as opportunities, VIC, ACT, and WA are far more dependant on their Super Rugby franchise to support their grassroots and competitions unlike both NSW and QLD who have competitions that are far less, if at all reliant on the Super Rugby franchises and would continue largely unaffected below Super Rugby and could still feed Super Rugby teams and have NRC teams.
Lets be honest, the criteria is a joke. The simple equation is this. If the ARU cut one franchise they get more home derbies and it yield a higher financial return via ratings and gate takings. on top of the saving from financially supporting one less franchise. Its all banker wanker stuff - savings; its the easy way out as we cant find any way to generate sufficient income without any risk or work.
So working on those criteria the TV ratings from the Brumbies are always quite good, and really either of the other will remain fairly static if you cut one. The Reds and Tahs are the lynch-pin in any TV deal atm.
Now its about the gate takings. The Reds have good crowds, and the Tahs get a free pass on this one only as they are needed for the TV deal atm (shit but a reality) and the relocation of the Tah based Wallaby players would be too costly and the civil war with NSWRU and its factions would be unbearable. The Brumbies crowds (pre and hopefully post board idiocy) are fairly healthy and the Force also have a good gate, so that leave the Rebels the most likely candidate - until the ARU did the stupid deal.
So really its now about who we can be cut and the criteria is merely based on who can be cut with the least damage.
The worst part is with the ratings and attendances diving due to the way this is all happening, the financial benefits of the gate is now compromised and the irony is they may have been better to suck it up and stick with 18.
This ride will not stop, nor the angst and uncertainty, decision or no decision, for Australian rugby until 2020; regardless of what happens in the next 12-18mths. We are simply not the master of our own destiny and never will be while we are on the Super Rugby train. But we need it for the money.
The SANZAAR deal will always mean we are one year away from no TV deal. All it takes is one union to have an "issue" and the plug can be pulled as required. This is the example right now.