Where to for Super Rugby?

[Quick Hands]

Another fantastic advertisement for Super Rugby last night at the SFS I hear.

 

[Inside Shoulder]

Another fantastic advertisement for Super Rugby last night at the SFS I hear.

Should not do too much overall harm to the game in this country: very few people saw it and those that did are denying it.

 

[wamberal]

Another fantastic advertisement for Super Rugby last night at the SFS I hear.

It was an advertisement for the game of rugby here in Australia.

 

[Quick Hands]

It was an advertisement for the game of rugby here in Australia.

Perhaps an illustration of the state of the game, and further evidence of the need to step back and away from Super Rugby.

Barely 10,000 people at a game which would have drawn 25,000-30,000 a decade ago.

Meanwhile, next door at the SCG 38,000 fans watch the Swans play Adelaide.

I was flicking between the league and the AFL, both of which were entertaining and exciting. I didn't see any of the Waratahs game, but my understanding is that neither of those adjectives could be used to describe events at the SFS.

 

[Quick Hands]

And just to provide some factual information; in 2008 the Waratahs played 3 South African teams at the SFS

Cheetahs in Round 7 - Crowd 20,179
Lions in Round 10 - Crowd 20,016
Sharks in Round 11 - Crowd 26,402

Games against NZ teams at the SFS in 2008

Round 1 v Hurricanes - Crowd 27,011
Round 8 v Blues - Crowd 26,986

In round they drew 32,371 against the Brumbies

In the home semi against they drew 37,378. (against the Sharks)

(Lost the final in NZ 20-12 against the Crusaders)

Coach was Ewen McKenzie, who the farsighted NSW sacked at the end of that season. His replacement was Chris Hickey - and we know what happened next.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_14_season

 

[Dan54]

I quite enjoyed last night's game, wasn't bad at all. I know some see pulling out of Super rugby as a good idea, but I personally suspect it will hasten the death (or close to it) of Australian rugby. Everyone get's excited when Tahs/Rebels/reds etc have a heroic win over another Aus team, but take my word for it, you will have not only a poorer game to watch, but also a bloody sight weakened Wallaby team too, as your players grow used to a diet of rugby with only one style played. Think back to the days before Aus teams started to play NZ and SA teams regularly. They certainly were capable of giving a brave performance as they generally got beaten.

 

[Gnostic]

I quite enjoyed last night's game, wasn't bad at all. I know some see pulling out of Super rugby as a good idea, but I personally suspect it will hasten the death (or close to it) of Australian rugby. Everyone get's excited when Tahs/Rebels/reds etc have a heroic win over another Aus team, but take my word for it, you will have not only a poorer game to watch, but also a bloody sight weakened Wallaby team too, as your players grow used to a diet of rugby with only one style played. Think back to the days before Aus teams started to play NZ and SA teams regularly. They certainly were capable of giving a brave performance as they generally got beaten.

and that is different how to what we have now. Oh that's right the administrators and select players are reaping rewards far exceeding what they actually deserve.

The fact is if Australian Pro Rugby is a business, and it is, it has losts its customer base and is nothing more than a parasite existing off the amateur game below it. In all honesty the standard of Rugby is better at Club level even in my little comp on the Mid North Coast. It might not be as fast or as hard hitting but the actual skills are better. Even when the Pro Australian sides get to step back to their own level and play against the Sun wolves and Jaguares and each other they cannot consistently execute basic skills. Why should we expect them to be able to step up and play the top sides.

This is not a lack of players argument, it is the same argument I have been making since 2003, it is a lack of effective coaching and selection through the entire development pathway. Beale for example is a deeply flawed player that has been in this system for 15 years of more, but is an ineffective defender, flakey attack who is sometimes brilliant, but usually average or slightly above. In 15 years he has developed not one whit (or wit). AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) still could not pass when he left Australian rugby and I wonder genuinely if he has been sat down and taught now in the NH (I suspect he has improved greatly).

Just like the Australian Banks, those at the top are drunk on the funds and largess they receive from their position and ensure it is not endangered by outside forces and hence hand pick candidates for key positions to this end.

 

[Quick Hands]

Everyone get's excited when Tahs/Rebels/reds etc have a heroic win over another Aus team,

Only the deluded are excited by it. Realists know that such wins serve only to temporarily mask the deep flaws. Said deep flaws are exposed against SA and NZ opponents.

Think back to the days before Aus teams started to play NZ and SA teams regularly. They certainly were capable of giving a brave performance as they generally got beaten.

Which is sort of what's happening now despite, or perhaps because of, the super rugby situation.

Wins against Fiji, Italy, Japan, Argentina (x2), Wales and 1 brave win over the ABs in a dead rubber.

2017 tests
Fiji - W 37-14
Scot - L 19-24
Italy W - 40-27
NZ - L 34-54
NZ - L 29-35
Arg - W 45-20
SA - D 27-27
Arg W 37-20
NZ - W 23-18
Jap - W 63-30
Wal - W 29-21
Eng - L 6-30
Sco - L 24-53

There's no doubt that for its first decade and perhaps a couple of years after that super rugby was good for Australian rugby. We weren't smart enough to use it to grow the game at the bottom, we just pumped more and more money into the top - and the bottom just withered away. The bottom is now so weak that it can't produce enough talent to keep the top going.

Super rugby has become a financial and resource burden on the rest of the game. There is almost no hope of turning the game around using the super rugby model. The only hope is a domestic league which connects to the base of the game.

As it currently stands, almost no one outside of the small private school competitions in Sydney play rugby these days - particularly after 13 years of age. Judging by the players being produced, I'd say the same could be said about Brisbane and Canberra.

 

[Gnostic]

QH I'd go further, I'd say there is a bit of a statistical anomaly hidden in the success data for the first 7-8 years after Rugby went pro in this country. During that time the game here was supported by some once in a generation players who were undoubtedly world class and they carried through about 2003-2004. They learnt and developed under the amateur systems and developed in depth skills. When they contingent retired there were some who had learnt under their in game influence and whilst the effect was diluted there was immediate collapse. Now we have zero of that input excepting ex-players of that era like Gregan, Larkham, Eales, Waugh, Robinson......... sucking the blood from the game like leeches.

Now the development pathways are as you say, and anybody not identified and contracted by 1-17 just is not in the frame and those that are get very fit but develop no senior rugby skills. I have no doubt that there are very good rugby players in Australia who could match it with the worlds best, but they are not being developed and coached. Their skills are woeful and they by the factor of the development and selection pathways are arrogant and entitled and these factors make them resistant to adult learning, couple that with the lack of any ethical or moral standing in the ARU and state Unions and you basically have an absolute dearth of effective leadership and we see outcomes like Beale v Mackenzie/Patston with Hooper thrown in, Mowen v the entitled Wallaby clique. In each instance we can name those like Beale, Hooper and the behaviourally compromised survive and those who tried to make change are moved on or resign.

I see no way forward except a complete collapse and rebuild. At least after the mini revolt the club game is now separate from the "elite" and has its own strong following, unlike the superficial tremulous following of the Pro game here.

 

[Quick Hands]

Q
Now the development pathways are as you say

I'd add that as the base has shrunk below the critical mass, we now have nepotism, cronyism and networking rife in the development process. Who you know, who your father is, what school you go to and your reputation (usually propogated by friends and relative in the know) count for much more than performance or natural talent.

So, the same issues which plague us in the boardrooms, plague us in junior development.

 

[The torpedo]

I see no way forward except a complete collapse and rebuild.

The big question is who, when and what starts the process?

 

[RedsHappy]

The big question is who, when and what starts the process?

It'll most likely be a lapse into bankruptcy and this could occur as early as late 2019. It's totally clear that Australian rugby cannot cure or correct itself as any leadership honest or capable enough to do so is nowhere to be found in the elite entities of the code.

Alternatively, it could occur when Braveheart81 stops posting here .

 

[Strewthcobber]

Rugby Australia has $17m in the bank. They're obviously in a bad way, but let's not get carried away here

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[Brumby Runner]

And very likely to have more after the Ireland tests. Think the RA will still be around, running things (down?) for a few years yet.

 

[The torpedo]

Alternatively, it could occur when Braveheart81 stops posting here .

Mods ban Braveheart81 pls

 

[kiap]

I quite enjoyed last night's game, wasn't bad at all.

Was the first time in the Tahs soup history they've been nilled.

And they deserved it.

How long has Daryl Gibson got left? Should never have been hired.

take my word for it

Not likely based on your rating of the shitshow last night.

you will have not only a poorer game to watch

Horseshit. The current spectacle is as poor as it's been in forty-odd years.

Viewers are voting with their feet. Bums aren't bothering to take their seats.

but also a bloody sight weakened Wallaby team too, as your players grow used to a diet of rugby with only one style played. Think back to the days before Aus teams started to play NZ and SA teams regularly. They certainly were capable of giving a brave performance as they generally got beaten.

Nonsense. Compare the last ten years with three decades earlier:

2008-2017: 18% win rate against NZ. ( clicky )

1978-1987: 42% win rate against NZ. ( clicky )

Scrapping the disastrous Supe will be the best thing Australian rugby has ever done.

BTW, this doesn't have to mean never playing NZ teams again. Put domestic rugby competitions at the start of the season where they belong. Then think about setting up a Champions League comp: pools + knockout, all over in two months.

Even South Africa can be invited, but if they want to go to Europe, fine. And Argentina should look to the Americas for their club competitions.

 

[wamberal]

Don't be shy.

 

[RedsHappy]

And very likely to have more after the Ireland tests. Think the RA will still be around, running things (down?) for a few years yet.

The $17m 'cash' is significantly due to a one-off Govt grant for a glossy new HQ in Sydney. It will depart the ARU's bank account with a scary regularity and trend.

What people often forget is this: the appallingly low crowd figures that the State RUs are getting for their home Super matches will quite rapidly filter through to a major decline in both sponsorships income and net gate income (net gate income is material to the State RU's finances and solvency, net gate falls off exponentially once gross gate income falls close to fully loaded stadium rent and game operating costs) in 2018 and 2019 (why will 2019 be an better, it will likely be worse on current trends).

Accordingly, it's a good bet that multiple State RU bail outs will be needed by some time in 2019, or maybe early 2020. These will be of a very material size in relation to the ARU's increasingly fragile core operating - not 'one offs - cash flows. The fact that the game is so on the nose with sponsors and others external - plus the visual impact of the dreaded empty stands - will impact ongoing ARU and State RU income for sure both this year and subsequently.

Multi million $ bailouts for say the Rebels, Reds and Brumbies in late 2019 could easily total $6-$10m cash just for starters. (How much have the Rebels burnt through of ARU/RA $s - $25m+? Stop laughing.)

When we turn to 2020......the ARU's income, and its ability to pass income to the State RUs as operating subsidies, in recent years has been hugely bolstered by another not-to-be-repeated one off, namely the exceptional bidding war in the UK that was for overall Super Rugby TV rights. Every media observer in the UK says that will never happen again.

Given what we all see of the rapidly dilapidating Super Rugby comp today, surely no one expects the post 2020 Super Rugby gross media income per country to be anything like what it has been in the last 4 years, it's almost certain to experience a very material reduction from 2020. This will seriously damage Australian rugby's core financial viability.

Wallaby Test attendances and related income - another key RA income source - are in free fall (still plenty of seats free for the Ireland Tests) and that is always worsened in a RWC year as next year is when there's likely no June series and a shortened RC and BC.

Then we must factor in the likelihood - happening more rapidly already - of more and more elite players here moving to Europe for higher immediate incomes and better income prospects over their whole career cycles (plus the smarter ones smell the crash coming to Australian rugby here). The gate and weakened media impact of the less good players remaining will clearly negatively impact the gross income prospects of the code as a whole.

So just look at the emerging aggregate financial dynamics of Aust pro rugby as a whole and a picture of seriously deteriorating core net cash flows arises of a type that even 'one offs' won't fix and of a type that no sensible bank would fund.

Where will the saviour arise from and why? Well, the best and most likely saviour will be World Rugby working to radically restructure the code here in close concert with managerial and coaching resources provided by the NZRU that also has a massive vested interest in rugby not irrevocably collapsing in Australia. All this will be to the good as the serious and extraordinary costly incompetence by which the game is governed here can be finally washed away in one radical sweep of deep cleansing.

 

[jimmydubs]

I’ve lived in 6 or 7 different countries and visited 45 or so more in the last 20 years and they’re all pretty much as self absorbed as each other when it comes to sports. Exceptions are countries with limited local sports content or sporting history (either because of socioeconomic, political or other factors) those ones seem to just follow premier football and/or the nba.

 

[Quick Hands]

Rugby Australia has $17m in the bank. They're obviously in a bad way, but let's not get carried away here

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Don't underestimate their ability to lose money. I agree it will take them a little while to burn through $17 million, but lose it they will on the current trajectory.