Where to for Super Rugby?

[kickedmyheight]

Papworths view on Super Footy & other ARU failures.

http://www.rugbynews.net.au/brett-p...ing-its-a-business-when-it-isnt-run-like-one/

I must say, I haven't been a big Papworth fan previously, but he makes a very good case here.

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[amirite]

I think you're being a little pedantic amirite. You might not get an example that is exactly the same as the Force, but there are many on that list of teams that were struggling financially who have been saved by the fan ownership model.

AFC Wimbledon for one is an example of an even tougher situation. It's a team that was started from scratch and entered initially into the 9th level of English soccer because Wimbledon FC moved to Milton Keynes for financial reasons. So it meets most of your criteria and then some - it's a younger club than the Force, in a small market (the Wimbledon catchment in London is far smaller than Perth) that does not own intellectual property with a large degree of value internationally. And since it was formed in 2002 it's moved from the 9th level of English Soccer to the 3rd.

Lets wait to see how the Own the Force initiative goes. Surely you could agree that if it can raise over $5 million that it will go quite a long way to shoring up the financial viability of the Force going forward. And obviously the more the better. Especially if the ARU aren't dicks about selling back the IP and allow most of that money to go into a future fund. Keep in mind the Force have existed for 12 years and got an injection of $3.5 million one single time. If they were to go another 12 years before needing a similar un-budgeted injection a future fund would cover it a few times over by then.

I acknowledge your point and I appreciate the way you make it, but I really don't think I am being pedantic. When it comes to making projections you need a fairly close example otherwise it may as well be hearsay.

AFC Wimbleton was founded this way through inception and did not pivot under the pressure of ceasing to exist. It also exists in London, which we can agree is not a small market. Very far from it. From there it has the opportunity to start at a semi-professional level of football and go from there. Much gentler than the Force who will being going back to Super Rugby's coal face next year.

If the Force are able to take the projections of Own the Force to a business meeting, what's to stop Cox saying he'll sell 20% of the Rebels to his community and insisting that be taken into account?

Not on the basis that they have an idea.
But they are much further progressed than figures on a beer coaster.
They are entitled to be given the time, to confirm whether or not the concept has legs.
That's if the ARU are genuine in giving each franchise a chance to fight for their survival.

I agree they should be given time. I am not pro 4 teams. But they're not being given time, the decision is happening now.

Imagine if the Rebels get cut and Own the Force doesn't get as much interested as hoped. It would be awful. 2 sides would probably die.

 

[amirite]

I must say, I haven't been a big Papworth fan previously, but he makes a very good case here.

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Important to remember Papworth has said "scrap the Force" in the past. This is just another article in his anti-ARU series.

It's really easy point out what the establishment is doing wrong without the burden of solutions.

 

[Leo86]

1. They are young (Rebels are younger)
2. They are, by most metrics, struggling and do not have a history of success (Same for Rebels, financially Rebels have consistently held out their hand, Force just recently and were not bailed out but made to sell IP)
3. They exists within a small market (against Eagles, Dockers and Glory. Melbourne on the other hand is a divided market of 10 AFL teams, Victory, City and Storm. Pie looks a little smaller in context)
4. They play internationally (same as Rebels)
5. Their intellectual property does not hold value outside of WA (same as Rebels)

Just to put side by side

 

[kickedmyheight]

Important to remember Papworth has said "scrap the Force" in the past. This is just another article in his anti-ARU series.

It's really easy point out what the establishment is doing wrong without the burden of solutions.

This is true and it certainly hasn't turned me into a Papworth fan. I am simply commenting on the content of this particular article which I think makes good points. The ARU at the moment needs a bit of bashing I think.

As far as bringing solutions, I don't 100% agree with all the solutions he offers here but they certainly have a semblance of sense and he is at least offering an alternative method.

Criticism where it is due but credit where it is due as well. Some good points made.

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[amirite]

1. They are young (Rebels are younger)
2. They are, by most metrics, struggling and do not have a history of success (Same for Rebels, financially Rebels have consistently held out their hand, Force just recently and were not bailed out but made to sell IP)
3. They exists within a small market (against Eagles, Dockers and Glory. Melbourne on the other hand is a divided market of 10 AFL teams, Victory, City and Storm. Pie looks a little smaller in context)
4. They play internationally (same as Rebels)
5. Their intellectual property does not hold value outside of WA (same as Rebels)

Just to put side by side

You are straw manning, deliberately or otherwise. All these points were specifically made in relation to finding a case study for Own the Force and were not rallied as claims against the Force. You've taken them out of context.

I have said multiple times that the decision to cull either the Force or the Rebels is largely equal, but that a hypothetical future model is not a factor in the debate (which is actually the discussion we've been having if you follow the chain).

On your point regarding small market V big market, it's more about cap than it's about share. People can follow several teams. Immigration trends are also a factor.

Position population divided by major sports teams would be a terrible way to make projections. Not founded in any kind of logic.

 

[Omar Comin']

I acknowledge your point and I appreciate the way you make it, but I really don't think I am being pedantic. When it comes to making projections you need a fairly close example otherwise it may as well be hearsay.

AFC Wimbleton was founded this way through inception and did not pivot under the pressure of ceasing to exist. It also exists in London, which we can agree is not a small market. Very far from it. From there it has the opportunity to start at a semi-professional level of football and go from there. Much gentler than the Force who will being going back to Super Rugby's coal face next year.

If the Force are able to take the projections of Own the Force to a business meeting, what's to stop Cox saying he'll sell 20% of the Rebels to his community and insisting that be taken into account?

If you take AFC Wimbledon as a continuation of Wimbledon FC, which for the fans it was, then it did pivot under the pressure of ceasing to exist. I guess you could say it's like a hybrid of an old club and a new one. But the age of the club after a certain point is to me a little pedantic, because I think once you've been supporting a team for 10 years it's part of the fabric of your life. And that's especially true of the younger fans of the Force

London is not a small market, but Wimbledon and its borough (Merton) is quite small. And there are dozens of football clubs in London. The Force is the only pro rugby team in a city of 1.8 million people and a state of 2.6 million. It's really not that small.

I don't think we actually need to make any projections. If Own the Force has very close to $5 million in the bank in the next week or two then the Force have succeeded. If they're not even halfway then I think the writing is on the wall for them.

My greatest hope is still that both the Force and Rebels provide convincing enough evidence of sustained financial stability and the ARU change their mind.

 

[amirite]

This is true and it certainly hasn't turned me into a Papworth fan. I am simply commenting on the content of this particular article which I think makes good points. The ARU at the moment needs a bit of bashing I think.

As far as bringing solutions, I don't 100% agree with all the solutions he offers here but they certainly have a semblance of sense and he is at least offering an alternative method.

Criticism where it is due but credit where it is due as well. Some good points made.

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Fair point.

I think it's pretty funny that he recently had to sell off an asset from his club, TG Millner, which wasn't a popular decision. But, he made it as the best long term financial decision for his club. There's plenty of parallels to be drawn here.

You'd think the man would understand making a tough, unpopular decision because of financial realities.

Like I said, it's easier to fight the establishment than to be the establishment.

 

[I like to watch]

Running from the top - no, nothing against the Shute Shield competition, just a bit rich that some sections of a semi-professional competition feel a need for funding, when there are other areas of community rugby that are in far more dire need of support.

I don't disagree with providing grassroots funding. My gripe was more with the definition of 'grassroots'. I note that some clubs still seem to have their bundy rum and telstra goal post pads and hit shields from happier times (i.e. last decade). Unfortunately, I think a bigger problem is that juniors aren't registering like they used to, and there seems to be a high rate of attrition of senior players in rural and subbies competitions. I'm unsure as to how much funding will help to stablilise that trend.

Again, the whole concept of a self-sustaining semi-professional competition (a good thing!) would suggest an area of less need than, say, a junior competition.

For the record, don't be fooled by the Reds' logo and jumping into the ad hominem side of things. I often attend SS matches when not playing or working (don't follow a team as such, and I don't hate Sydney Uni either - go figure).

Similarly, you have fallen into the trap of mistaking criticism for dislike. The bulk of this forum is essentially criticism, but if we hated rugby we'd be wasting our time on Big Footy or cycling forums instead. Or posting crayon drawings to NRL.com.

FFS for the thousandth time SS gets no funding from ARU, and is not lobbying for clubs to receive handouts from Billy P.
In any case, it's not coming
Remember his pissing it up against the wall comment?

They are talking about investing resources into grass roots ie juniors.
Do you realise that the ARU charges you $480 to do a level 2 coaching course?
They should be paying you to do it!
And by the way, you have to have a day off work, cos they run the. Mid week, not weekends!
I heard on the radio that their is 1 DO employed to cover from Forster to the Qld border!
These are the things that the SS clubs are screaming for help on.
But the ARU are oblivious, as these are not issues encountered at GPS Schools.

 

[amirite]

I don't think we actually need to make any projections. If Own the Force has very close to $5 million in the bank in the next week or two then the Force have succeeded. If they're not even halfway then I think the writing is on the wall for them.

I basically agree with that. I think 5mil is set a bit low for what 'success' looks like, but it shows consumer intent if nothing else.

If they only make 5mil I feel like the second 'float' will have to happen pretty quickly.

 

[BLR]

My greatest hope is still that both the Force and Rebels provide convincing enough evidence of sustained financial stability and the ARU is forced to backflip within SANZAAR.

One thing I worry about is how happy Clyne seems to be about re-negotiating the broadcast deal to be the same for 4 teams. For them that would be a big cha-ching without the hassle of having to deal with another team.

 

[Leo86]

I have been following the chain.

Own the force is not a hypothetical but is happening. I dont have access to the stats but the rumours and the pledge count are encouraging.

Amirite, i have agreed with alot you have said and i dont think you are intentionally bashing the force at all. But to concentrate solely on the negatives of the force i as a supporter/fan/member/soon go be owner i felt obliged to comment.

RWA did the study and I have faith in their findings that this could work. Before case studies there had to be originals.

If the force have only asked for assistance once in 12 years. Than this own the force and other initiatives being done by the RWA can have merit in succeeding.

Yes people can follow several teams, i am one but the ultimate choice is when on at the same time to which do i watch/pay to attend.

 

[kickedmyheight]

Like I said, it's easier to fight the establishment than to be the establishment.

Oh, definitely! That said, the more I find out about the current establishment the more I am convinced that a full revolution is required!



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[amirite]

But the ARU are oblivious, as these are not issues encountered at GPS Schools.

The ARU have zero input into GPS schools.

 

[I like to watch]

If the Force are able to take the projections of Own the Force to a business meeting, what's to stop Cox saying he'll sell 20% of the Rebels to his community and insisting that be taken into account?



I agree they should be given time. I am not pro 4 teams. But they're not being given time, the decision is happening now.

Imagine if the Rebels get cut and Own the Force doesn't get as much interested as hoped. It would be awful. 2 sides would probably die.

Who is imposing this tight deadline?
why?
Give each side sufficient time to put together a package.
If the Force raises the projected pledges, then that obviously more substantive than Pie in the sky projections.
If Cox wants to do that as well,fine, but I think that's unlikely as it makes an exit strategy at a later date much more complicated.

 

[I like to watch]

The ARU have zero input into GPS schools.

that their backgrounds!
That's their Rugby experience!

 

[amirite]

Who is imposing this tight deadline?
why?
Give each side sufficient time to put together a package.
If the Force raises the projected pledges, then that obviously more substantive than Pie in the sky projections.
If Cox wants to do that as well,fine, but I think that's unlikely as it makes an exit strategy at a later date much more complicated.

Mate, I think you'd agree from the general climate around Aussie rugby that a tight deadline is pretty important.

The Force could've down own the Force last offseason, but without pressure they weren't moved to action, and isn't that kind of the issue? The pressure won't always be there.

Own the Force is a reaction to an issue, it isn't done because the WA community just needed a way to love the Force just a bit more.

 

[amirite]

that their backgrounds!
That's their Rugby experience!

Yeah, there's issues with private schools in rugby for sure, but the ARU let them run it themselves. They (the schools) have big rugby budgets anyway, and that's completely independent to the ARU.

 

[BLR]

The Force could've down own the Force last offseason, but without pressure they weren't moved to action, and isn't that kind of the issue? The pressure won't always be there.

Own the Force is a reaction to an issue, it isn't done because the WA community just needed a way to love the Force just a bit more.

They announced it around October last year but had to go through ASIC.

It isn't a reaction at all.

 

[kickedmyheight]

One thing I worry about is how happy Clyne seems to be about re-negotiating the broadcast deal to be the same for 4 teams. For them that would be a big cha-ching without the hassle of having to deal with another team.

I wonder how happy he will be if it turns out that the money saved gets eclipsed by the amount of legal fees required due to the cut clubs claim against guarantees?

Not too late for a backflip! And SA is far from a done deal if their history is anything to go by.

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