Waratahs v Blues. Sydney.

[Jethro Tah]

Re: Tahs v Blues

At the end of the day the Tahs aren't REALLY going that bad. Sure THERE have been some bad games and some close scratchy wins, but the point is they got THERE. Yes, it may not be incredibly exciting but I would prefer a 4 point win in a 14-10 scoring game rather than a 72-65 point loss. Yes its entertaining but the lions walked away with nothing. I understand that we may not reach the finals (again) based on the 5 point bonus point wins but if we don't win in the first place we wouldn't be ruing the missed opportunity of one more try etc.

The Tahs have luckily found themselves at 4th on the table but the game against the Blues will be a real litmus test for the side. The Tahs need to step up and prove that they are genuine contenders.

"For the Tahs fans hoping for some attractive rugby from the Tahs, you would be damn well confused" Well that is just ridiculous, we can't even HOPE that they will play attractive rugby? We seen this year that they are capable of it. The Bulls game, for example.

I know it was weeks ago but we were right to praise the Tahs after the Lions game. They put 70 points on the board where the 'Saders only managed 46. My point is you can't compare how teams fared against other teams week to week. Only the individual games can be looked at in isolation. Just because so and so beat so and so does not mean so and so will easily beat so and so the next week. If you catch my drift...

I think I forgot what i was talking about...

In conclusion.
Lets hope Horne is actually starting.
and
Mitchell is awesome.

I'm with you Henry. The Tahs aren't really going that bad but yes it is time to step up and play like every game from now on is make or break. I am optomistic and expect a win but a realist and expect it to be low scoring affair. In the turn for home competing for a place in the finals a bonus point would be nice but equally important will be to prevent the Blues from getting any.

 

[Biffo]

Re: Tahs v Blues

I don't think their supporters are upset at the Tahs' boring play per se. If they were winning enough games to make the semis, the fans wouldn't give two stuffs of a black rat's anus how boring they were. I think the angst comes from the supporters being smarter than the Tahs' management, using their primary school arithmetic skills to understand that wins have varying impacts on the S14 ladder. A 14-10 win does not earn a bonus point, while conceding one to the opponent. A 30-23 win can be almost damaging - if, for example, the opponent gets 4 tries and the Tahs get 3 tries then the Tahs get 4 points and the opponents get 2. Results such as those two cases at home are very close to losses - in terms of the overall expected value (in competition points) of a home game they probably are losses.

The supporters know that the Tahs' "style" simply does not create enough margin (in competition points) over opponents for them to make the semis. The Tah supporters can see clearly that 2009 is repeating itself and the outcome being the same is increasingly likely.

Does the Tahs' management see the same problem? You there, Chris Hickey?

Thanks for that Biffo, you have saved me having to type most of that myself - I agree, and I would add that the other frustration for me is knowing that the standard of play that gets a close win over the Reds, Sharks and Force (note their position on the competition table) will not get squat against the tops teams, say the Stormers and Bulls, AND that the Waratahs do in fact have the players capable of beating the top teams.

For WJs benefit - A bonus point win is what I want from the Waratahs. As I have said before, I don't care if the 4 tries are scored by the forwards grinding down the opposition, as long as they are there. Too often this season the 4 tries have not been there (because of the reasons discussed since week one).


The Blues are a pretty up and down team, and I think they are very vulnerable when faced with strong set pieces and fast tight forward play. If the game becomes open and broken they can be deadly, but get in their face and give them no room and they will struggle.

I got lazy and didn't add a piece about how we could take account of wins against teams below and above the subject team on the points ladder.

If you really wated to know how the S14 teams are travelling, you could calculate (1) the expected value of a home game against a team above a subject team on the ladder (2) the expected value of a home game against a team below a subject team on the ladder (3) the expected value of an away game against a team above a subject team on the ladder the expected value of a home game (4) the expected value of an away game against a team below a subject team on the ladder.

At any round of the competition, we could then calculate how many competition points each team should have and compare that with how many it has. Right now, for example, the Bulls 24 points would clearly be above the expected value of their five games. The Tahs 17 points would almost certainly be well below the expected value from their six games.

I am too lazy to do the arithmetic. Any volunteers with time on their hands?

 

[CanadianRugby]

Re: Tahs v Blues

Hell no, I hate stats.

I with WJ on a lot of this, I think the 'Tahs have become a bit like Al Baxter last year. Even if they fix what's wrong, its just become trendy to bash them for boring style.

As for anyone saying that the praise after the Lions game, most of what I read on this site was along the lines of "so what? the Lions suck."

I think there are problems in the Waratahs game. For example, the kickers seem to find the other teams back three more often than not. Though I think I remember Hangers putting in some nice touch finders last game. I would love some demonstration of an ability to make a break in the midfield, which doesn't seem to happen.

Currently, I count the Bulls and Lions as very good games for the Tahs. But, and as a Hickey hater this is hard for me to say, I am optimistic about this season. A few small tweaks and they'll be good to go.

 

[mark_s]

Re: Tahs v Blues

I would like to see peoples serious responses to WJ's challenge, espcially given criticism of the tahs this year has been very forthcoming on this forum? Personally, I will be happy as long we we score more points than the blues.

My feeling is that this weekend is crunch time for both the tahs and brumbies. Losses this weekend mean that a top 2 finish will be almost impossible and a 3rd or 4th finish will require a string of good results against tough teams over the rest of the comp.

 

[Blue]

Re: Tahs v Blues

Too right mark_s. My worry is though that Hickey is so conservative that he might still beleive that playing a tight game and strangling the Blues is the way to eek out a win. Against a team like the Blues that will be suicide becuase it means kicking at their back three. The other problem is that the Blues forwards really fronted at the breakdown againts the Brumbies and the Tahs will battle to get ascendancy there.

Tahs have to back themselves. Do Hickey and Waugh have the balls? We'll find out.

 

[naza]

Re: Tahs v Blues

Did you boys see Rupert Guinness' piece this morning ? http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/waratahs-can-put-boot-into-critics-20100323-qu64.html

The statistics, compiled by Fair Play Sports Analysis Systems, show the Waratahs last year recorded an average of 32.8 kicks per game over the entire season; the fifth-highest in the Super 14. But their latest analysis reveals a sizeable drop to 22.3 kicks per game after six rounds this season - the largest positional reduction by any team this season, and the second-lowest overall.

Chris Hickey said ''It is interesting to see those sort of stats … it indicates the approach that we have had and shows that despite the perception of some people we don't kick the ball a lot.''

So how can people say they aren't running the ball enough ?

 

[fatprop]

Re: Tahs v Blues

Did you boys see Rupert Guinness' piece this morning ? http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-news/waratahs-can-put-boot-into-critics-20100323-qu64.html

The statistics, compiled by Fair Play Sports Analysis Systems, show the Waratahs last year recorded an average of 32.8 kicks per game over the entire season; the fifth-highest in the Super 14. But their latest analysis reveals a sizeable drop to 22.3 kicks per game after six rounds this season - the largest positional reduction by any team this season, and the second-lowest overall.

Chris Hickey said ''It is interesting to see those sort of stats … it indicates the approach that we have had and shows that despite the perception of some people we don't kick the ball a lot.''

So how can people say they aren't running the ball enough ?

I think is the teasing they do, the Tahs this season have played shit against the Reds and were lucky to win, played shit against the Stormers, played well against the Bulls, average against the Sharks, well against the Lions, average against the Force.

To me the have played well for two game all season.

Overall our attack is just so disorganised after a few phases, we lose shape and no one puts their hand up.

What I would like to see is players getting off their arses and doing more work off the ball in attack, running better lines, keeping in motion and dominating the tackle by driving over

 

[PhucNgo]

Re: Tahs v Blues

What I would like to see is players getting off their arses and doing more work off the ball in attack, running better lines, keeping in motion and dominating the tackle by driving over

And therein lies the key. The common theme which seems to be developing so far is that on the occasions the Tahs forwards turn up the team as whole goes reasonably well (doesn't necessarily fix the backline problems, but at least they're going forward). However when they're put under pressure as in the games against Sharks (where they were summarily mashed) and Force (who wouldn't lie down), the whole thing spirals down to trench warfare.

Who knows which Blues team will turn up on Saturday, but on paper their forwards are more than capable of dishing it up. Against the Force the Tahs had only one forward (TPN) who met FP's criteria, the rest were effectively AWOL. If the Tahs are to win this week they'll need everyone to step up (and I'm talkin' to you Dean Mumm), particularly if Palu's absence continues.

 

[Lee Grant]

Re: Tahs v Blues

Good posts PN and fat one.

The best game the Tahs played was the game lost against the Bulls, until they ran out of puff, at altitude, against a very good team. They ticked the boxes in the forwards and accordingly they could tick the boxes in the back line who were feeding off them.

So; you can't blame the backs 100% for the problems the Tahs are having, but you have to give them some stick. As naza said: the Tahs have tried to run with the ball, but it's the ineptitude when they have done so that has been galling.

They tried in the first half against the Sharks and the Force for example but their skills were poor: the 9,10,12 nexus did not click even when the ball was passed promptly and actually caught, and the best move of the 13 in Perth was to go to the bench and get replaced by Horne who showed some dash.

It is that area that is frustrating to a Tah fan and has been for years.

There have been some good posts in this thread started with a tongue in cheek suggested revamping of the points table. It's amazing what you can think up whilst you are picking up dog shit from the lawn.

I particularly liked this comment:

I think I forgot what i was talking about...

Details of how to join the Lee Grant club will be forwarded promptly, if I remember to do it.

This week the tahs will avenge the blues for the 1882 defeat where they were beaten 7-0.

A sad day that; I cried all the way home.

 

[Ash]

Re: Tahs v Blues

I think is the teasing they do, the Tahs this season have played shit against the Reds and were lucky to win, played shit against the Stormers, played well against the Bulls, average against the Sharks, well against the Lions, average against the Force.

To me the have played well for two game all season.

Overall our attack is just so disorganised after a few phases, we lose shape and no one puts their hand up.

What I would like to see is players getting off their arses and doing more work off the ball in attack, running better lines, keeping in motion and dominating the tackle by driving over

Yup, that is pretty much what I was trying to say.

Where the Tahs have really struggled in the past is getting the ball wider. When their forwards create space by rumbling over the advantage line, in the past they have turned it into another forward. This year they have thrown it wide a bit when it's not on, but they are playing wider - just not at the best times.

Once they find some space hitting an outside back running a good line or in an overlap would be great, but outside of those two good games they haven't been able to do it. But the Tahs are capable of it.

The other area the Tahs can do better is counter attacking. It's something the Reds have done well this year and has probably earned them a fair chunk of their points. With the backs the Tahs have they can do a bit better on the counter.

Personally, I'd probably be criticising the Brumbies this year for wasting more of their potential than the Tahs, but unfortunately the Brumbies are the Australian team I seem to keep missing most weeks.

 

[CanadianRugby]

Re: Tahs v Blues

Good point Ash, the counter-attacking needs to be increased. With Mitchell running like he is and Turner looking like he's ready to go.

Another thing to look for this game: The 'Tahs defense, I think its fair to say, has been excellent most of the season. The Blues will definately test that D. Hope they keep that up.

I would like to see Barnes actually do a little attacking. Like running at the line.

 

[waratahjesus]

Re: Tahs v Blues

im going to call barnes to I3 and horne to I2, confuse the hell out of everybody and give drew a ballplayer next to him to get him into gaps

 

[RugbyReg]

Re: Tahs v Blues

wj. does your 1 button not work?

and why Barnes to 13? what will he bring to the table out there?

 

[PhucNgo]

Re: Tahs v Blues

im going to call barnes to I3 and horne to I2, confuse the hell out of everybody and give drew a ballplayer next to him to get him into gaps

Mission accomplished. :yay

 

[Newb]

Re: Tahs v Blues

wj. does your 1 button not work?

and why Barnes to 13? what will he bring to the table out there?

y3@h n0ddy 1t'$ br0k3n :tard

 

[waratahjesus]

Re: Tahs v Blues

wj. does your 1 button not work?

and why Barnes to 13? what will he bring to the table out there?

nope that button does not work,
im working on a theory were the dual playmakers become I0 and I3 with a twelve between them capable of getting over the advantage line. You all call me crazy now, but after the kiwis do it for a few years and then the wallabies try in vain to copy them in time for 20I5, then, then you can quote it, its the way of the future.

with the breakdown working more towards attacking than last year, having a quick hit up at I2 followed by having a playmaker either side of the ruck would help break down defence more than the dual playmaker role currently which has turned into playmaker no#I to playmaker no#2 doing nothing but creating space in depth by sending the ball deeper, having a crash ball twelve will mean getting the defence on the backfoot which would allow the playmakers to pick runners and forwards either side than the crabbing its turned into from most australian teams from one side to the next.

 

[RugbyReg]

Re: Tahs v Blues

can you use your lower case L button?

I reckon it looks more like a 1 than an I. See? I 1 l

Cheers

 

[waratahjesus]

Re: Tahs v Blues

can you use your lower case L button?

I reckon it looks more like a 1 than an I. See? I 1 l

Cheers

only if it really affects you that much noddy, l, hows that?

 

[RugbyReg]

Re: Tahs v Blues

good news:

2010 Super 14 - Round 7
HSBC WARATAHS V BLUES
Saturday 27 March 2010 (Kick-off 7:40pm AEDT)
Sydney Football Stadium

HSBC WARATAHS
15. Kurtley Beale (Northern Suburbs)
14. Lachie Turner (Eastwood)
13. Rob Horne (Southern Districts)
12. Berrick Barnes (Sydney University)
11. Drew Mitchell (Balmain)
10. Daniel Halangahu (Sydney University)
9. Luke Burgess (Sydney University)
8. Wycliff Palu (Manly)
7. Phil Waugh [c] (Sydney University)
6. Dave Dennis (Sydney University)
5. Kane Douglas (Southern Districts)
4. Dean Mumm (Sydney University)
3. Al Baxter (Northern Suburbs)
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau (Parramatta)
1. Benn Robinson (Eastwood)
Reserves
16. Damien Fitzpatrick (Eastwood)
17. Sekope Kepu (Randwick)
18. Will Caldwell (Sydney University)
19. Ben Mowen (Randwick)
20. Josh Holmes (Warringah)
21. Tom Carter (Sydney University)
22. Sosene Anesi (Eastern Suburbs)

 

[DPK]

Re: Tahs v Blues

can you use your lower case L button?

I reckon it looks more like a 1 than an I. See? I 1 l

Cheers

only if it really affects you that much noddy, l, hows that?

I think you mean "aye" :lmao: