There has been a lot of selective watching going on in Super Rugby and a lot of false memories. Simmons and Horwill have not been responsible for the Reds slump this year with two exceptions: Simmons has been a penalty magnet at times, often as a result of niggle play and Horwill has let emotion cloud his judgement in relation to handling referees.
In tight, Horwill's work has been very good and his stats reflect that. No one's died as a result of a bone cruncher, but he has moved bodies and made inroads. Simmons has probably been our best lineout exponent. I predict that both of them will start the first test if the French have their best tight five available. If some of them are not available due to Top 14 final commitments then Link may well want to experiment a bit.
If the French have full availability for test one, Skelton might well be the bench player not for his impact but in order to shore up the tight head side of the scrum. This is the French we are playing; to a french front rower its more important to win the scrum battle than the match. Hands up anyone who believes we have a rock solid tight head and a strong scrum. Yes, I thought so. The one thing we learned on the EOYT (but knowing us have probably forgotten) is that we must have an eight man effort in order not to be massacred by good scrums.
I suspect that, depending on results and form, Carter and Jones will appear in matches two and three, probably from the bench. If the scrum starts badly in test one I can see Skelton starting in game two with Jones or Carter on the bench.