Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC

[Viking]

I don't think anyone is trying to justify Horwill's performance. He has been poor to average for most of this season.

When our locks are likely to already contain Skelton and Jones who are inexperienced, I tend to think Horwill is likely to get the nod over Carter or Coleman.

Out of those three, Coleman probably has the best form but I think we've got enough inexperienced players in that area already.

What about Dennis?

 

[Braveheart81]

Only TWAS, - AGAIN

I think it's pragmatism more than anything. An experienced Wallaby (Horwill) playing to a similar level as a less experienced Wallaby (Carter) is likely to win that final spot, particularly when a couple of the likely selections are inexperienced at test level.

What about Dennis?

Dennis will certainly be part of initial squads named and maybe his versatility will get him there but I tend to think he'll be behind Fardy and Jones who both offer that versatility.

 

[hammertimethere]

Expect Horwill doesn't have a history of starting a season slow and then taking half a season to "get going".

He's been CONSISTENTLY under-performing at both levels now for years.

Look, when we disagree about this sort of stuff (relative merits of similar players for a single position) things are rarely as simple as one opinion is right and other is wrong. Problems arise when we begin to make statements in order to drive home our point, and then repeat them so often that we start to believe them to be indisputable, self-evident fact.

Horwill is no longer Australia's premier lock like he was before his wretched run of leg injuries. He's not as powerful or dynamic, and disappointingly he has begun to revert back to some pretty ordinary disciplinary habits at times. But the repeatedly stating that "he is poor, has been poor for years, haven't you been watching? etc." ignores the fact that he has done some very good things for the Reds and Wallabies in the last few years. His set piece work is by and large exemplary (especially at the scrum, maul and defensive lineout) and his work rate with runs/tackles is generally consistently good. Generally isn't a line bender anymore but neither is any of his direct competition.

On current evidence Carter is perhaps not the dominant upcoming star we thought he might be, but neither is he the all work-no impact player many posters painted him to be for 2-3 years. He brings that consistently excellent work rate around the ruck but is another who's ball carrying is serviceable rather than frightening. His set piece work and tackling, like most of his game is solid rather than spectacular. A reasonably low error rate and penalty rate (despite being busy at ruck time) is a positive.

In the end, I agree that Simmons, Skelton and Jones are our best options (they bring a nice balance of skill sets too in conjunction with the other forwards), however a RWC is not the time to be playing multiple guys in a 23 who have limited experience at 2nd row in a test match. We need a fourth lock and it should be Carter or Horwill. How would you feel if in the back end of the England game we packed a scrum with Jones and Skelton in the 2nd row behind our 2nd choice props? I would be terrified. What if it was Simmons and Coleman? Still not full of confidence.

It should be Carter or Horwill. Currently neither are lighting the world on fire. Horwill has had his struggles for form but has experience and knows about winning and is a great set piece exponent. Carter has no great recent form but put together a stellar Super Rugby season last year and a few good tests and is an out and out rock mover.

The TRC will give more evidence.

 

[Viking]

Gee I'm not buying the whole "experience" argument in Horwill's case. Experience can only get you so far. On that basis we should also be picking Ben Robinson as back-up to Slipper.

The only thing Horwill has got going for him at the moment is his set-piece work.

 

[Train Without a Station]

He's been CONSISTENTLY under-performing at both levels now for years.

No he hasn't.

Whilst he certainly has not been an exceptional performer he has still put in quite good performances at both levels the past 2 season (Vs the Tahs & Rebels in 2014 and vs Argentina at Argentina) whilst otherwise getting his job done.

People are making their judgement on the basis of 2 ludicrously stupid and deserved red card actions from him. But if you actually watch him play, he's been playing fine for a lock without being a stand out.

He clearly though is not the future and not going to recapture his best form. But most importantly his game has changed from high impact, to set piece and high work rate, which is now not what is needed from him at the next level.

I think he's extremely susceptible to being replaced but the question is whether there is anybody that is able to bring the consistency and impact required at test level. Which is why I think he will be there. In addition he is probably the second best set piece lock to Simmons. He's scrummaging and his ability in the line out is better and just below Simmons. He actually takes quite a few steals in the line out. I get the impression when he physically couldn't get back to where he was before his injuries this is something he worked on.

Let's compare him and Coleman head to head this weekend and reserve judgement.

 

[Slim 293]

Giant douche or turd sandwich?

Both good in the set piece, although Horwill would shade Carter in the lineout..........

Carter has a much higher/effective work rate though, and excellent maul defense..........

Horwill has more experience, but his Super Rugby and test form has been much poorer than Carter, who Link and Cheika persisted with as a starting lock last year..........

If Cheika was to pick one of them, Carter might just get the nod.

 

[Viking]

God it's good to be arguing about 3rd and 4th choice locks for a change.

The future looks bright too. Even with the fresh guys like Arnold and Coleman I like the idea of experienced guys like Mumm, Kimlin, Pyle, and Douglas returning to Aus in the next few years to add to that depth.

 

[Braveheart81]

Gee I'm not buying the whole "experience" argument in Horwill's case. Experience can only get you so far. On that basis we should also be picking Ben Robinson as back-up to Slipper.

If Scott Sio doesn't have a good return, I think there's a strong chance we'll see Robinson selected at various points this year.

Apart from a couple of poor moments against the Force, his form lately has been good, particular in the last match against the Crusaders.

I don't think he'll be the fifth prop in the RWC squad because he doesn't play tight head but I'd currently rank him third in the LHP list with the second ranked player (Sio) only returning from a couple of month lay-off this weekend.

Toby Smith has had a very good season for the Rebels but when it comes to the crunch, I think most coaches will opt for experience when it comes to close decisions.

If Sio misses out on the RWC I'd bet that it will be Robinson there in his place.

 

[Train Without a Station]

GBoth good in the set piece, although Horwill would shade Carter in the lineout....

Carter has a much higher/effective work rate though, and excellent maul defense....

Horwill has more experience, but his Super Rugby and test form has been much poorer than Carter, who Link and Cheika persisted with as a starting lock last year....

If Cheika was to pick one of them, Carter might just get the nod.

Well according to Fox Sports Fantasy stats:

Horwill averages 5.6 runs per game. Carter 4.7 runs per game.
Horwill 6.5 tackles per game. Carter 6.3 tacklers per game.
Horwill 0.4 pilfers per game. Carter 0 Pilfers per game.

Based on that, Horwill has the slightly higher work rate. I wouldn't really read too much into the difference and would say they're on par, thought I would note that these statistics do include as full games where he actually spent 80 minutes or more off the park across 2 games when he received Red Cards. Not a defense, but just a note it would potentially be slightly higher without these.

Interestingly Carter takes 4 line outs per game to Horwill's 2.6 but both have taken 2 steals for the season, Horwill from 10 games and Carter from 12 games.

 

[Slim 293]

That doesn't take into account involvement and efficiency at the breakdown though, which is one reason why Carter was favoured by Wallaby coaches last year...........

I'm not sure if the experience tag will help Horwill considering he was considered 4th choice lock last year under Cheika and his form has regressed since.........

Neither Carter or Horwill are playing well enough to stand out, but Carter does have the benefit of being in a much better team right now.

 

[Train Without a Station]

Wasn't he actually selected whenever fit on the EOYT?

His form really has not regressed since either. It's not spectacular. Just the same.

 

[Slim 293]

Wasn't he actually selected whenever fit on the EOYT?

On the bench with Skelton..........

Carter/Simmons started every test bar one.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Carter is not as good in the set piece as Horwill. If he was he'd probably be the Brumbies line out leader. He is also not as good in the scrum. He is also nowhere near as experienced.

You want to know why Carter has only been "below average this year"?

Because it's only this year he's had to back up from a season that finished at the start of December. Where as Horwill has pretty much done it consecutively since 2008.

Some of these less experienced options look great at Super Rugby level. But they're coming in fresh. How many Wallaby players take half the season to really get going? Look at Carter, Jones, McMahon, etc. who really have been below what we considered par for them before this season.

We think these new players are going great guns but then suddenly they get smashed at test level, then back up the next season shithouse because they've hardly got a rest period and have done half a pre-season. So when we get to the point that we compare apples with apples (players who have come into the season with similar preparation), they no longer look like the potential star we thought they were.

Now it's all well and good if you are going to wipe the slate clean every test season and start again with new players and not want to build on the previous season and squad.

But if you don't then you'll find when all of these players have to regularly deal with the rigors of a test season, they aren't exactly the player we really thought they were.

TWAS as you know trying to compare players on an internet forum is full of subjective opinions usually based on little more than which player plays for the Super team the particular fan follows, or on a reduced sample because some of our selectors here either only watch the games involving thier own team or don't have the opportunity to watch more because they don't have access to Foxtel (as many, many posters complain about).

So I can accept your support for Horwill but I do have some subjectively based misgivings about your take on some of the options, either for lock or for elsewhere.

For instance, I really don't think Luke Jones has struggled to find form this year, and I strongly believe he has been playing better than Big Kev. Then, McMahon has missed a few games through injury, but when fit I believe he has been as good as he was expected to be, though playing at No 6. I don't think either of these players fits the description of having been below what we considered par for them before this season.

In Sam Carter's case, I think there is a widespread notion amongst followers of other teams that he hasn't been performing this year. That is simply not true - the notion imo has been formed by posters who probably haven't been following the Brumbies as closely as they do their own teams, if at all. And it gets repeated by others with a particular favourite they want to push or by those again who either don't or can't watch all Aus teams play. Sam has been going good doing what he always has done. He and Simmons are just about interchangeable for the skills they bring to the game.

I think the possibility of Carter going to RWC will frest on Cheika's thoughts about whether he wants two locks of such similar skillset. If so, then Sam will tour. If not, but wanting a more aggressive, in-your-face type of lock to replace or back up Will Skelton, then he'll go with one of Coleman or Arnold regardless of inexperience. In any case, I will be surprised if Kev gets a gig at this RWC.

For the record, I watch each and every game involving Aus sides and most involving NZ sides. Maybe I should get a life?

 

[Brumby Runner]

What about Dennis?

Yep - Dennis has been putting himself forward with some excellent performances lately.

 

[fatprop]

Carter needs to smash more units at cleanout and in the tackle. He does a lot of work, but needs be more angry ie physically dominate/impose himself in the tackle and ruck area because he doesn't do it ball in hand

 

[Train Without a Station]

On the bench with Skelton....

Carter/Simmons started every test bar one.

James Horwill was on the bench against Wales. He then was promoted to start against France. I believe he actually had a decent game here. He then never played again. Was this not due to a knee injury?

Was Carter injured for the France game? Or just dropped, then recalled with Horwill out and Skelton's poor scrummaging?

 

[Braveheart81]

So Scott Sio and Quade Cooper have both been named to start this weekend which is good to see.

Both are very likely to be in our best matchday 23 if they can find form and fitness.

It will be interesting to see how they go. Cooper only has three games left whilst Sio should hopefully get 4-6 games assuming the Brumbies make the finals.

Only Matt To'omua to return now.

 

[qwerty51]

Honestly I think we should cease RWC discussion and focus on the team for the first Test vs SA on July 18.

A lot of the discussions and questions over players will be answered during the TRC.

The Super Rugby final is July 4th which is 2 weeks before the first match so a slight possibility Cheika may give a rest to those who find themselves in the final.

If Cheika is looking at Giteau & Mitchell for the RWC this is surely their first test to see if they're still up for it. Also this would be the time to test a Hooper/Pocock combo.

This would be my preliminary 23 for the match at Suncorp. I've specifically gone with two opensides because last time we played the Boks at Suncorp they killed us at the breakdown with their pilfering - let's take it to them there and what better time to experiment if it'll work or not. The Saffer team is closer to Wales/Eng than NZ. Holmes gets the start ahead of Kepu to see if he's up to Test standard and Kepu will need to managed this year + Suncorp factor.

1. Slipper
2. Moore
3. Holmes
4. Simmons
5. Skelton
6. Pocock
7. Hooper
8. Higginbotham
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Speight
12. To'omua
13. Kuridrani
14. Mitchell
15. Folau

16. Polota-Nau
17. Sio
18. Kepu
19. Coleman
20. Fardy
21. Palu
22. Giteau
23. Cooper

 

[Brumby Runner]

Look, when we disagree about this sort of stuff (relative merits of similar players for a single position) things are rarely as simple as one opinion is right and other is wrong. Problems arise when we begin to make statements in order to drive home our point, and then repeat them so often that we start to believe them to be indisputable, self-evident fact.

Horwill is no longer Australia's premier lock like he was before his wretched run of leg injuries. He's not as powerful or dynamic, and disappointingly he has begun to revert back to some pretty ordinary disciplinary habits at times. But the repeatedly stating that "he is poor, has been poor for years, haven't you been watching? etc." ignores the fact that he has done some very good things for the Reds and Wallabies in the last few years. His set piece work is by and large exemplary (especially at the scrum, maul and defensive lineout) and his work rate with runs/tackles is generally consistently good. Generally isn't a line bender anymore but neither is any of his direct competition.

On current evidence Carter is perhaps not the dominant upcoming star we thought he might be, but neither is he the all work-no impact player many posters painted him to be for 2-3 years. He brings that consistently excellent work rate around the ruck but is another who's ball carrying is serviceable rather than frightening. His set piece work and tackling, like most of his game is solid rather than spectacular. A reasonably low error rate and penalty rate (despite being busy at ruck time) is a positive.

In the end, I agree that Simmons, Skelton and Jones are our best options (they bring a nice balance of skill sets too in conjunction with the other forwards), however a RWC is not the time to be playing multiple guys in a 23 who have limited experience at 2nd row in a test match. We need a fourth lock and it should be Carter or Horwill. How would you feel if in the back end of the England game we packed a scrum with Jones and Skelton in the 2nd row behind our 2nd choice props? I would be terrified. What if it was Simmons and Coleman? Still not full of confidence.

It should be Carter or Horwill. Currently neither are lighting the world on fire. Horwill has had his struggles for form but has experience and knows about winning and is a great set piece exponent. Carter has no great recent form but put together a stellar Super Rugby season last year and a few good tests and is an out and out rock mover.

The TRC will give more evidence.

Great post HT.

 

[Slim 293]

James Horwill was on the bench against Wales. He then was promoted to start against France. I believe he actually had a decent game here. He then never played again. Was this not due to a knee injury?

Horwill replaced Carter for the French test, but then he was demoted to the bench for the following game against Ireland but then didn't play due to injury............