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Tim Horan (67)
Higgers is a solid performer at 8 as well as flanker. When have we seen either Dennis or Jones perform to Higgers' standard at 8? Does that fact bring him back into contention?
Wallaby 31 players for 2015 RWC
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Higgers is a solid performer at 8 as well as flanker. When have we seen either Dennis or Jones perform to Higgers' standard at 8? Does that fact bring him back into contention?
Joe Blow
John Hipwell (52)
Nice in theory, but they don't. McCalman is a worker (not a criticism, an observation), Higginbotham is highly talented, but just has not brought that to Test rugby with any consistency, Vaea has looked good in even shorter stints than Palu of late. I'm a fan of all these players, by the way, but I'm a realist. I get what you're saying, but I reckon it's a bit fanciful to expect a magic back-row, apart from moments of brilliance from Pocock or Hooper (or maybe Fardy). We look for this X-factor, but it doesn't seem to be there.
And I suspect there are good reasons coaches keep picking Palu, but I guess we're all the experts, eh?
I don't advocate a back row full of XFACTA, but there needs to be balance and several options. Hooper offers good xfacta and is a running option and I would not start he and Higgers together. However if Pocock and Fardy start then I would go with Higgers.
There doesn't seem much point taking both Palu and McCalman as they offer pretty much the same thing. I would include one them and Higgers as the 8s with Higgers also the back up to Fardy.
I guess who ever makes it through the RC uninjured will decide who the 8s are.
That's why we are here...to be armchair experts.
I am sure Cheika knows exactly what he wants by now.
Dennis 6/4 or 5, Jones 6/4 or 5 or Higginbotham 6/8? Form suggests Dennis, talent suggests Jones, hope suggests Higgers. Who'd be a selector.
If I HAD to I'd, somehow, shoehorn Dennis and Jones into the 31 man squad and feel utterly shithouse for leaving Higgers out. BUT, with Benny Mac and Palu pencilled in for the 8 duties it's difficult to see a spot for Scott. There again, who'd be a selector.
If I HAD to I'd, somehow, shoehorn Dennis and Jones into the 31 man squad and feel utterly shithouse for leaving Higgers out. BUT, with Benny Mac and Palu pencilled in for the 8 duties it's difficult to see a spot for Scott. There again, who'd be a selector.
AngryWallaby
Frank Row (1)
You've assembled a great list, but there's one thing I really disagree with. I don't think there's any possible way you can leave Giteau at home at the expense of Cooper, not after what we've seen this year out of both players.
put them both on the end of a very good back line against not so good back line defenders (in france) is the argument
True, but I am a big fan of having one of the wings to play the role of wing/2nd 15 with the other being a strike unit.
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) is our current wing/2nd 15 option, JOC (James O'Connor) and Mitchell are both lessor options, but options (JOC (James O'Connor) on form not really an option at all)
We need a unit that can work with Folau in the back field as needed, the Tahs actually use Beale with Horne moving in defence, but that won't work at test level because Beale isn't playing near well enough
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Partly true. But comparing JOC (James O'Connor)'s France success with Mitchell's recent France from is a bit skewed.
For example the video you posted with JOC (James O'Connor) finishing tries makes him look good. But compare it too Mitchell's Grand Final performance then it looks pretty amateur. Mitchell scored a great individual try that most Aussie Super XV players could never have scored. Horne, Cummins, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) don't have the footwork / JOC (James O'Connor), Tomane - maybe could have / and Speight probably could have.
Your argument is France back-line's defence is much poorer then super xv. Overall this is true BUT Mitchell did this in the GRAND FINAL - a high pressure game with the BEST 2 teams in Europe. Surely the 2 best teams in Europe would be better then the worst super xv teams and probably equal to a mid-level super xv team.
If you take a look at the footage, Mitchell was also bumping off opposition Forwards and putting on big hits in the back line. JOC (James O'Connor)'s France form isn't even close to Mitchell's.
My main point it that JOC (James O'Connor) could not have done what Mitchell did in the Grand final - not many Aussie wingers could have - even in a lesser league that has got to count something.
BDA
Jim Lenehan (48)
My forward pack is pretty much locked in. Obviously this is subject to injuries and how some of the fringe players perform in TRC. Whilst there will be a big extended squad for TRC, I can't see Cheika straying too far, if at all, from his preferred squad.
Props: Sio, Slipper, Holmes, Kepu, Alexander
Hookers: Moore, TPN, Hanson
Locks: Simmons, Skelton, Jones, Horwill
Backrow: Hooper, Pocock, Palu, McCalman, Fardy, Higgers
Alexander - At present, I can't see PAE getting picked ahead of a 72 test veteran. My observation of PAE is that he has the Strength, but not yet the nous, to compete with the NH's best. Alexander is a major lottery and about 33% of the time at test level he gets badly dominated. But the other 66% of the time he can usually get by. Case and point the lions series. He fills me with absolutely no confidence. I'd be open to seeing PAE get a run in TRC, although I'm not sure they'll be enough time to get a good read on him.
Hanson- After last year I thought Fainga'a was a certainty for selection. He's still an outside chance if he can get some game time under his belt, starting this week. At the moment Hanson appears to have the spot tied up. Latu, like PAE, looks like a player of the future. But now is not the right time to be trying to blood a rookie hooker, especially when we have plenty of good options with an abundance of test experience.
Horwill - Again Horwill's selection ahead of better, younger prospects simply comes down to experience. Now is not the time to be filling our squad with rookies. Horwill has been there done that and knows what is required at test level. This WC will be largely about the set piece, and Horwill is more reliable in the scrum and line-out than the alternatives. Carter has unfortunately gone missing this season and Jones has outshone him.
Higgers - I see no reason why the selectors would want all of Jones, Dennis and Fardy in the squad. I'm not the biggest Higgers fan, but he does offer some variety and physicality. He's a good foil to a Pocock-style no.7 and a strong line-out option. McMahon is great but he's basically Hooper mark 2.
Props: Sio, Slipper, Holmes, Kepu, Alexander
Hookers: Moore, TPN, Hanson
Locks: Simmons, Skelton, Jones, Horwill
Backrow: Hooper, Pocock, Palu, McCalman, Fardy, Higgers
Alexander - At present, I can't see PAE getting picked ahead of a 72 test veteran. My observation of PAE is that he has the Strength, but not yet the nous, to compete with the NH's best. Alexander is a major lottery and about 33% of the time at test level he gets badly dominated. But the other 66% of the time he can usually get by. Case and point the lions series. He fills me with absolutely no confidence. I'd be open to seeing PAE get a run in TRC, although I'm not sure they'll be enough time to get a good read on him.
Hanson- After last year I thought Fainga'a was a certainty for selection. He's still an outside chance if he can get some game time under his belt, starting this week. At the moment Hanson appears to have the spot tied up. Latu, like PAE, looks like a player of the future. But now is not the right time to be trying to blood a rookie hooker, especially when we have plenty of good options with an abundance of test experience.
Horwill - Again Horwill's selection ahead of better, younger prospects simply comes down to experience. Now is not the time to be filling our squad with rookies. Horwill has been there done that and knows what is required at test level. This WC will be largely about the set piece, and Horwill is more reliable in the scrum and line-out than the alternatives. Carter has unfortunately gone missing this season and Jones has outshone him.
Higgers - I see no reason why the selectors would want all of Jones, Dennis and Fardy in the squad. I'm not the biggest Higgers fan, but he does offer some variety and physicality. He's a good foil to a Pocock-style no.7 and a strong line-out option. McMahon is great but he's basically Hooper mark 2.
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Some real sensible comments. Only thing I don't agree with is Horwill. Alexander, Hanson and Higgers all have decent form. Horwill doesn't and it's not just a dip in form this year, it has been like this for 2-3 years now.
2-3 years of under performing is certainly enough for me to try some-one else. If you want experience then Dennis is worth another shot, or youth go with Jones.
You raise very valid points, Im not opposed to seeing Giteau and Mitchell used in the Rugby championship to some degree as they do provide good experience within the squad and in their day were both world class, I just think the players playing in Aus deserve first crack. for the record my wingers would be AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and Tomane and I think Horne should also be in the squad. Id just be picking JOC (James O'Connor) in front of Drew even considering a couple of shockers he has had.
hammertimethere
Trevor Allan (34)
He did go with Jones (see above). The point is Carter or Horwill? Or do you say fuck it and pick a promising one like Coleman? Not sure I know what the answer is but I imagine one of the major goals of TRC will be to sort this problem out.
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Well I think Horwill is a no-brainer to miss out for the point I already raised. 2-3 years of under performing is not good enough.
If you want experience then you go with Carter, he's great in the set-peice, as good as Horwill in my opinion. He's only been below average this year.
Or yeah you go with Coleman / Arnold if you want to a take a risk.
Personally I'd take the risk for Coleman or Arnold BUT I'm guessing Cheika will go with Carter. I wouldn't be happy if I see Horwill in the squad.
T
Train Without a Station
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Carter is not as good in the set piece as Horwill. If he was he'd probably be the Brumbies line out leader. He is also not as good in the scrum. He is also nowhere near as experienced.
You want to know why Carter has only been "below average this year"?
Because it's only this year he's had to back up from a season that finished at the start of December. Where as Horwill has pretty much done it consecutively since 2008.
Some of these less experienced options look great at Super Rugby level. But they're coming in fresh. How many Wallaby players take half the season to really get going? Look at Carter, Jones, McMahon, etc. who really have been below what we considered par for them before this season.
We think these new players are going great guns but then suddenly they get smashed at test level, then back up the next season shithouse because they've hardly got a rest period and have done half a pre-season. So when we get to the point that we compare apples with apples (players who have come into the season with similar preparation), they no longer look like the potential star we thought they were.
Now it's all well and good if you are going to wipe the slate clean every test season and start again with new players and not want to build on the previous season and squad.
But if you don't then you'll find when all of these players have to regularly deal with the rigors of a test season, they aren't exactly the player we really thought they were.
You want to know why Carter has only been "below average this year"?
Because it's only this year he's had to back up from a season that finished at the start of December. Where as Horwill has pretty much done it consecutively since 2008.
Some of these less experienced options look great at Super Rugby level. But they're coming in fresh. How many Wallaby players take half the season to really get going? Look at Carter, Jones, McMahon, etc. who really have been below what we considered par for them before this season.
We think these new players are going great guns but then suddenly they get smashed at test level, then back up the next season shithouse because they've hardly got a rest period and have done half a pre-season. So when we get to the point that we compare apples with apples (players who have come into the season with similar preparation), they no longer look like the potential star we thought they were.
Now it's all well and good if you are going to wipe the slate clean every test season and start again with new players and not want to build on the previous season and squad.
But if you don't then you'll find when all of these players have to regularly deal with the rigors of a test season, they aren't exactly the player we really thought they were.
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Yeah it's a tough call isn't it.
1. You pick Drew then you risk the step up from top 14 to Test level being too much to handle. or
2. You pick a JOC (James O'Connor) out of form and risk that he doesn't find form before RWC
Personally I think Number 1 is less of a risk given Drew's vast Test experience.
But then there's the moral side and logistical side of picking an oversea's player ahead of a domestic one.
My wingers would be:
11. Mitchell
14. Speight
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Horwill isn't the line-out leader for the Reds so how is that different to Carter? Neither are top-class line out callers but they are both capable of taking line-outs and making steals. Horwill probably shades him but only slightly.
Carter is a solid option at the scrum. Remember when Fardy got shifted to lock and our scrum fell apart? If I recall correctly our scrum was fixed as soon as Carter was back at lock. Again Horwill probably shades him with experience but again that is only by the tiniest amount.
Yes Horwill has had to back it up for years now and he has been failing at doing so. This is Carters first year at doing so, so give him another shot or give some-one else a shot.
Surely you can't justify Horwill's under performance because he's been playing too much rugby.
I definitely agree with this premise.
If we go back to early in the season, players like Arnold, Coleman, Timani, Vaea etc. were being pencilled in as 2015 Wallabies based on how they were playing.
Now getting towards the back end of the season, most of these players are probably out of the running in most people's RWC squad lists.
For all the reasons mentioned, the test players tend to take longer to warm into the season (partly because they haven't had the benefit of the same pre-season) and know that their form in May and June is going to count for more than in February and March.
I also tend to think that the final spots in each position that are still up for grabs are likely to end up with veterans, particularly where there is already inexperienced players amongst those picked.
I don't think anyone is trying to justify Horwill's performance. He has been poor to average for most of this season.
When our locks are likely to already contain Skelton and Jones who are inexperienced, I tend to think Horwill is likely to get the nod over Carter or Coleman.
Out of those three, Coleman probably has the best form but I think we've got enough inexperienced players in that area already.
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Expect Horwill doesn't have a history of starting a season slow and then taking half a season to "get going".
He's been CONSISTENTLY under-performing at both levels now for years.
Scrubber2050
Mark Ella (57)
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