Please forgive this tl;dr, but I thought I'd spend my ten cents worth of typing on Saturday's test in Brisbane. It's really about this week's test so I put it here.
The bottom line is that we lost. That's a bitter pill, especially after the momentous win in the World Cup encounter. Most of us were expecting more of the same: if not a big win, then at least some early-season progress towards the big advantage line we drew that day.
Alas, it wasn't to be. We got beat, and we deserved to lose. Nothing should be taken from the Poms.
But why did we lose? A lot is being written on the Internet, and some of it is people reaching into the well-worn grab-bag of easy answers to that old question. Beaten at the breakdown. Beaten in the scrum. The usual reasons we lose to the Poms.
The real answer is both simpler and more complex.
We got beaten in the scrums.
We certainly did. As Gagger's excellent analysis shows on the front page, Dan Cole and the England scrum did a number on us.
Sure, a lot of it was borderline illegal. So what? They scrummed beautifully. Sure, Romain Poite was complicit. But that's how it goes when a team scrums beautifully.
And sure, they got Scott Sio yellow carded. That's why they're called the dark arts, and not the obvious arts.
Does that mean we should be changing our front row? No. We could change the order of precedence, since we have the luxury of being able to do that, but the right answer is to respond in Melbourne with an improved performance. We don't suddenly have a bad front row, or a bad scrum. And Mario Ledesma's not suddenly a numpty. This is something we can expect to fix by Saturday.
We got beaten at the breakdown.
No, that simply isn't true. We won 94% of our rucks compared to England’s 88%. We conceded 12 turnovers to their 11. But, crucially, we won 73% of possession in the second half. And an avalanche of it was quick ball.
We don't need to start messing deeply with our forward selections to overcome this imaginary disadvantage. As Cheika said, more of the same.
We failed to convert our possession advantage into points.
That's both true and false. We scored four tries. If we'd won, people would've been saying how we'd successfully converted our possession advantage into points.
All things considered, given the big change of Lilo for Horne, our attack was fine. We mounted many sweeping attacks. England were continually stretched. And, at the end of the day, we crossed the line four times. That's pretty good for a fiercely-contested test. It's the same as we did on the famous day at Twickenham last year.
What we did fail to do was convert enough of our tries into seven-pointers.
Our discipline was poor.
Damn right. Now we're getting into why we did lose the game.
It's very hard to overcome a 15-8 penalty count, especially when Owen Farrell is in such excellent kicking form. Our discipline was awful. In my opinion, it's the main reason we lost.
Foley's goal kicking was poor.
Yes, absolutely. He has to do better than that, or we have to come up with a different kicking solution. Goal kickers, to their credit and debit, play a crucial role in winning and losing matches, and Foley just didn't step up on Saturday.
Our execution was poor.
Yes, it certainly was. We made many mistakes, and some of them were howlers. Not least Falau, Foley and Kerevi's ballet-on-LSD that resulted in Jonathon Joseph's gift try. Gah. That's schoolboy stuff.
Add England's tenacity and fine 'wolf pack' defence to our poor discipline, poor goal kicking and poor execution and we have a test loss.
But:
We don’t need to make wholesale changes to fix problems that don't exist.
And Michael Cheika won't. He'll replace Pocock with Palu, McCalman or Gill. Each of those players will do a job for him. He might swap Lilo in for Kerevi, purely because that's what he would have done had Lilo been more available in the run-up to Suncorp. He might juggle the order of precedence in the front row, because he can.
We certainly don't need to replace a failing game plan. Based on the run of the play at Suncorp, we should be all over this England team. An in-form Wallaby outfit should convert 73% of possession and 76% of territory in the second half of a test match into a solid win. We should have done so, and on last year's form, we would have.
Therefore we have to get in form, and fast. That's the real moral of the story.
Of course, long-term Wallaby tragics will nod sagely and say, this is how we start every year. And it's true. This year, instead of stumbling to an unconvincing first-up win against a tier-2 team, we came up against a good England side on the rise, and we lost.
But I don't think we'll lose again on Saturday.