THERE has never been a Lions tour quite like this one. The tourists are heading towards the first Test on Saturday without thinking of fielding what would be regarded as a Test team in any of their warm-up matches, while Australia's side and intentions are shrouded in mystery.
From Tim Horan to Ewen McKenzie, from John Eales to Michael Cheika, opinions are split on who will start for the Wallabies and how they intend to play. For every supporter of the creative inside-centre skills of Christian Lealiifano there is someone banging the drum for the defence of Pat McCabe (who has been Lealiifano's back-up for the Brumbies). For every expert extolling the lineout calling of Rob Simmons there is another demanding the greater physical presence of Kane Douglas. And so it goes on.
Much fuss is being made over what the Lions are keeping under wraps; well, the Wallabies are keeping everything hidden. The only clues that the tourists can glean are those linked to the coaching history of Robbie Deans. The perception is that he is a skilled coach but a stubborn man who is not for turning.
That stubborn streak will probably be revealed when he selects James O'Connor, a world-class wing, at fly-half, where he is an international rookie. He has started there only once for the Wallabies and when he has played in the pivotal position for the Rebels he has impressed in spellbinding instances but never as an overall game controller. People tend to evaluate fly-halves on what they can do when the going is good but the key question is their impact on their team when they are below par. Australian greats such as Michael Lynagh and Stephen Larkham had their off- days but they still made the right decisions - they just executed them with less than their usual aplomb and so the team retained their shape. Given his inexperience and willingness to play in traffic there is a huge possibility that if the Lions get to O'Connor his game will unravel. Should that occur, the series score will be 1-0 to the Lions on Saturday. The other serious fly-half option is Kurtley Beale - Deans has stuck by his gifted star. Beale was exquisite at 10 against England last autumn but has since had off-field troubles that have hindered his playing focus.Deans has been backing O'Connor at 10 for some time and any other name would be a shock. If Beale is to play he will more probably be at full-back, where he can be devastating, although most of the former Wallabies with any hint of an inside track reckon Berrick Barnes, usually a fly-half or inside-centre, will fill that slot.That suggests a conservative kicking game. If McCabe is given the nod over Lealiifano at inside-centre, Deans will clearly be picking a team to negate the Lions rather than to impose Australia's own game. The main attacking threat will be the lofted crossfield kick to Israel Folau, whom most Australians expect to play. While many experts predict he will explode on the world game as the new superstar, others fear implosion, pure and simple.
Barring injuries, Will Genia is the scrum-half and Adam Ashley-Cooper the outside- centre. This we know. The scrum-half is the mainstay of Australia's team. Mike Phillips will be the Lions starter at nine no matter what Ben Youngs does, because of the extra power the Welshman brings to the position.
If the Lions ruffle Genia, O'Connor will struggle and the game will rush away from Australia. If Genia plays with his usual mix of cunning, kicking and devastation on the break, he might alleviate the pressure on the fly-half and forwards. He is the most influential player on the planet. He is that good. He is Lions Enemy No1.
If Genia's brilliant reading of the game is the main threat, Australia's pack is perceived as an opportunity for the Lions to dominate and get on the front foot. The scrum is a primary focus in Europe whereas in Australia it is seen as a nuisance, a means of restart. In theory the visitors have the power to exert a squeeze but with two Test referees from the southern hemisphere there is a danger that the technical superiority will not be fulfilled because of laissez faire interpretations.
Australia concede free kicks on the opposition put-in and see that as a job done. The Lions would like a longer scrum time to work the penalty opportunities; should Warren Gatland place emphasis on this set-piece the weapon could backfire. Australia will find it harder to neutralise attacking chances from the lineout, where the Lions have great options. The Wallabies have a fine leader in James Horwill but lineouts are not his forte. His Reds teammate Simmons, not the most imposing lock to grace the Test arena, is expected to partner him on Saturday.
On paper, Australia are up against it in the lineout. The same applies in the back row, where they have been rocked by injuries, the latest to Scott Higginbotham the biggest blow of all. Every single former Wallaby agrees on that one.
The Lions, by contrast, have a variety of riches to call on (their toughest problem could be formulating the best combination) but don't write off Australia's back row hastily. They have long been one of the smartest breakdown nations in the world. Michael Hooper is a magnificent replacement for David Pocock. He is a dynamic carrier but more importantly a leech over the tackled man. The Lions have to smash him off the ball in numbers, as England did to Richie McCaw at Twickenham last December. Easy to say, not quite as simple on the field of battle where the mobility and mental sharpness of the front five are good at slowing opponents and excellent at retaining possession.
The Australian team are patient in possession and can be devastating. They are cunning, though not great ball-carriers. What is emerging would never be called a masterpiece but that doesn't make it a fake.
The Sunday Times
