Wallabies 2024

[stillmissit]

There was a global talent scout on the sidelines at Scots College on July 27, 2019, watching play unfold in a Sydney schoolboys rugby game.

Scots were leading Kings 15-0 at halftime.

Then Joseph-Aukuso Sua'ali'i decided something needed to happen. The Kings player stopped waiting for the ball out wide and came looking for action.

“It was extraordinary, he was 15 years old, and he just owned the game,” the scout said.

Sua'ali'i scored a brilliant individual try, and set up another. In the end, Scots held on for a 15-14 victory.

“But it was clear he was the best player on the field by a mile,” said the scout, who then decided to follow Sua'ali'i’s games.

“I saw the Curry brothers (Tom and Ben) who now play for England, at Oundle (College in Northamptonshire), they were exceptional.

“Rieko Ioane at Auckland Grammar was a freak, Victor Vito at Scots College Wellington was a freak. Beauden Barrett in New Plymouth, you knew he was going to be something, fast, skilful.

“But I have never seen a better talent on a schoolboy rugby field than Joseph, anywhere in the world.”

The scout never could get Sua'ali'i’s signature. But he still stands by his assessment today.

So when the news emerged that Sua'ali'i would be picked to start for the Wallabies in his international debut against England, just four weeks after his first training session with the squad, questions surrounding the decision need to be considered with this history in mind.

Sua'ali'i has risen to every challenge presented in his career thus far, so why would the 21-year-old buckle now?

There have been claims that selecting him cheapens the Wallabies jersey.

But the Sydney Roosters asked the NRL for a special age-restriction dispensation to allow him to play first grade as a 17-year-old. Did that cheapen the Roosters jersey? Hardly.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sp...s/news-story/fe247ef239c9f15a03a384b72cbf5879

That's cheered me up a bit after the non-selection of Skelton and to a lesser extent Kerevi.

 

[dru]

EOYT "Pass Mark".

There has been some suggestion that anything goes here. I'd suggest that finishing the tour at a lessor ranking than our current ranking would NOT have met the mark. That could mathematically be a very real result. Falling outside the top #10 and fronting the BIL could have long term repercussions. I'd suggest a pass mark requires some improvement and definitely not stepping further backwards.

[I understand the view that quoting yourself is an anathema, but I'd like to extend my thinking.]

I'm presuming that a loss to Ireland will have nil impact on our ranking. A loss of 15 odd points to England will take us closer to Fiji but we need to lose by 25 ish to drop to #10. In itself that is not a big issue as long as we have some wins. Hmm, a win anyway.

Losing to Wales would be a fuck up and place us outside the top 10. Points against Scotland would be very useful in blunting the trauma and possibly pulling us back into the top 10. Still, dropping to #10 is not going to help our rep going into a BIL series.

If we want to show a deserved BIL, we will want to close both the Enland and Ireland games by not silly margins. Any win would be a big excellent step.

My bottom line here is we need wins against Wales and Scotland. For a pass. A good pass requires not going down by more than just over 20 points against England. While it may not impact rankings, ditto Ireland. It's not a big expectation really, but I'm not sure it matches the betting odds. By a long margin.

 

[Steve_Grey]

[I understand the view that quoting yourself is an anathema, but I'd like to extend my thinking.]

I'm presuming that a loss to Ireland will have nil impact on our ranking. A loss of 15 odd points to England will take us closer to Fiji but we need to lose by 25 ish to drop to #10. In itself that is not a big issue as long as we have some wins. Hmm, a win anyway.

Losing to Wales would be a fuck up and place us outside the top 10. Points against Scotland would be very useful in blunting the trauma and possibly pulling us back into the top 10. Still, dropping to #10 is not going to help our rep going into a BIL series.

If we want to show a deserved BIL, we will want to close both the Enland and Ireland games by not silly margins. Any win would be a big excellent step.

My bottom line here is we need wins against Wales and Scotland. For a pass. A good pass requires not going down by more than just over 20 points against England. Ditto Ireland. It's not a big expectation really, but I'm not sure it matches the betting odds. By a long margin.

WBs can only play with what is available on the truck now, which is relatively low in talent from years of Pathways mismanagement (and Super Rugby perhaps).

Likely multiple years of 7-10 table position sadly - need to beat one/all of the top three to make major table advances.

 

[dru]

WBs can only play with what is available on the truck now, which is relatively low in talent from years of Pathways mismanagement (and Super Rugby perhaps).

Likely multiple years of 7-10 table position sadly - need to beat one/all of the top three to make major table advances.

My entire point is that 7-10 is slipping. Right now.

 

[stillmissit]

My bottom line here is we need wins against Wales and Scotland. For a pass. A good pass requires not going down by more than just over 20 points against England. While it may not impact rankings, ditto Ireland. It's not a big expectation really, but I'm not sure it matches the betting odds. By a long margin.

I fully agree with this Dru. The Scotland match will be a big challenge. Depending on what happens to others I am hoping we could get to 8.

 

[dru]

OK, on that pass mark - achieved in the first game. Far out.

 

[Steve_Grey]

My entire point is that 7-10 is slipping. Right now.

That win helps the upward trajectory!

 

[hifflepiff]

 

[dru]

View attachment 20753

Your missing today's "We're so back".

 

[LeCheese]

Your missing today's "We're so back".

I'm, pretty sure today's is WE ARE FUCKING BACK

 

[stillmissit]

Just read on RP that we are now 8th and England are down to 7th their lowest ranking for a long time.

Springboks return to top of world rankings

South Africa have moved back to the top of the world rankings after extending their winning run against Scotland to nine matches.

www.rugbypass.com

 

[Jets]

Women's and Men's Rankings | World Rugby

Information about the World Rugby women's and men's rankings

www.world.rugby

England are 5th but could drop if they lose next week and Argentina win.

We moved from 10 to 9, tough of Fiji after their good win but Wales are ranked so low they didn't receive as many points for their win.

 

[Slim 293]

Women's and Men's Rankings | World Rugby

Information about the World Rugby women's and men's rankings

www.world.rugby

England are 5th but could drop if they lose next week and Argentina win.

We moved from 10 to 9, tough of Fiji after their good win but Wales are ranked so low they didn't receive as many points for their win.

They haven't updated the ladder yet (despite it saying otherwise up top), and will probably show the changes tomorrow but it will be as SMI mentioned...

1	(↑2)	South Africa	92.46	(+0.69)
2	(↑3)	New Zealand	91.21	(+1.55)
3	(↓1)	Ireland	90.58	(-1.55)
4		France	86.96
5	(↑6)	Argentina	85.60	(+1.30)
6	(↑7)	Scotland	82.70	(-0.69)
7	(↓5)	England	82.62	(-1.81)
8	(↑9)	Australia	81.14	(+1.81)
9	(↑10)	Fiji	80.07	(+1.00)
10	(↓8)	Italy	78.67	(-1.30)

https://www.theroar.com.au/rugby-union/world-rugby-rankings/

 

[stillmissit]

I assume we must beat Wales to hold this spot and then IF we beat Scotland it might be interesting but suspect we will stay at 8th but Scotland will swap with England. Not sure what impact a loss by England to SA will do as they are above them.

Just found a spreadsheet where you can do what-ifs, assuming it's your thing.

https://rawling.github.io/WR (World Rugby)-calc/

 

[Braveheart81]

In hindsight it's pretty easy to see why Sua'ali'i was thrown straight into the starting XV.

It would have been hard seeing that ability at training and deciding he wasn't in your best team.

The point Schmidt made about him being named as a starter and that being beneficial for his preparation was a good insight as well. For a player short on reps, being the starter is really important for having a lot of involvement in the week leading up to the game.

 

[dru]

I assume we must beat Wales to hold this spot and then IF we beat Scotland it might be interesting but suspect we will stay at 8th but Scotland will swap with England. Not sure what impact a loss by England to SA will do as they are above them.

Just found a spreadsheet where you can do what-ifs, assuming it's your thing.

https://rawling.github.io/WR (World Rugby) (World Rugby)-calc/

That's where I got the table from.

 

[Strewthcobber]

I haven't watched the whole game. Did Sua'ali'i end up defending much at 12?

For the later grubber down the short side try, he's got Ikitau inside of him.

Wright blind side wing, Kellaway at 10, mcReight next to him, then Ikitau, sua'ali'i, Jorgensen with Lolesio on the open wing.

 

[barbarian]

Yeah I noticed he defended at 13 a lot. He was there for Kellaway's turnover try late in the game.

 

[upthereds#!]

I'm guessing we need to be Wales - but mainly Scotland (plus lose to Ireland) if we want a chance of moving up the ladder again at Englands expense.

 

[KentwellCup>ShuteShield]

If we beat wales handidly, i can cop the rest being tough losses.