What if you could lose 3 games this year but be assured of winning the next RWC. Obviously you can never know. But I think there needs to be a balance.
A good example is Trevor Hosea, Nick Frost, and Angus Blyth, vs Matt Philip / Cadeyrn Neville. I'd rather us picking someone from the first group -- an emerging lock who might actually be useful at the next RWC.
What if you could lose 3 games this year but be assured of winning the next RWC. Obviously you can never know. But I think there needs to be a balance.
A good example is Trevor Hosea, Nick Frost, and Angus Blyth, vs Matt Philip / Cadeyrn Neville. I'd rather us picking someone from the first group -- an emerging lock who might actually be useful at the next RWC.
When I read Kafer's article the first immediate thought I had was "Yep well that worked out well for Lancaster's England squad in 2015". Lancaster reportedly had fixed ideas about the average age and number of caps a RWC winning squad historically has and spent years in the lead up to a home world cup trying to manufacture that profile in his squad. Problem was, it's a classic correlation-causation fallacy.
RWC winning squads tend to have that profile because they are full of a generation of players who's ability was sufficient to introduce them to test rugby at ~22, and keep them in it such that they earned the 50-70 caps before peaking at the right time. England's run up to 2015 was marked by repeated calls to reward the form and ability of players outside the core group selected by Lancaster in 2011/12 which were largely ignored (other than the obvious exception of S.Burgess, but there were political factors at play there).
If you just aim to mostly pick the best team you can to win every test, while remaining open minded and ready to bring through a younger player in place of a veteran where a combination of talent, form and circumstance require it then something like this "model profile" should grow organically. It always has and always will come back to cattle and timing.
There have also only been 9 world cups. That's not many to cups to be drawing statistically relevant data from.
Waratahs centre, one of the cases Kafer cited:Who the F--- is Joey Walton?
I'd think the only options at flyhalf would be Lolesio/Kuenzle, Deegan/To'omua, Harrison, and O'Connor. Obviously the players need to be at a comparable standard.
When I read Kafer's article the first immediate thought I had was "Yep well that worked out well for Lancaster's England squad in 2015". Lancaster reportedly had fixed ideas about the average age and number of caps a RWC winning squad historically has and spent years in the lead up to a home world cup trying to manufacture that profile in his squad. Problem was, it's a classic correlation-causation fallacy.
Warming to his subject, he adds: “Teams who have settled get time to work on the extra stuff and often times the extra stuff gets regarded as causative and it’s actually not. For example, we looked at the study, “Tactile Communication, Cooperation and Performance: An Ethological Study of the NBA”, which assessed the impact of touching teammates on performance. Many teams have been trying to introduce touch into their practice with little to no impact.
“What is most likely taking place is not causative but correlative: those that trust each other, through shared experience will be comfortable to touch each other, but they will also know each other’s role and have a stronger shared tactical understanding.” Too often, he says, we see outcomes of stability as causative rather than the stability itself.”
The Reds lineout sure as shit ain't vaunted BR
Let them earn their stripes like everyone else. There is no evidence that rushing prospects in helps them develop. On the contrary - NZ as an example are very slow to introduce their next big thing. Hard to argue with their results.
The objective of test rugby is to pick your strongest team and 'test' it against another nation's test side. Especially the case in a Bledisloe series. I have no issues with form based attrition, but dumping someone because they are over a certain age is stupid.
Ever heard of Jordan Petaia?I think JO'C is a sneaky good option for the test captaincy. He's clearly in the XV. He's our best 10, top two 12's and best 13. So some kid playing well isn't going to put him under selection pressure.
I also think Hooper can't be captain going forwards, his leadership has been good, but that's about it. He is probably the worst communicator with the referee I've ever seen, he very often makes awful tactical decisions. At best he's going to be under a mountain of selection pressure from Wright (maybe an option) and McReight.
Plus I think Hooper is (and always has been) better suited to coming off the bench.