Wallabies 2020

[Silverado]

At the moment a match by match captain would not be the worst thing, give a few different guys to show there leadership potential at international level while they work out who the best 15 is.

I do agree that AAA would be front runner if it wasn't for Tupou form. I still thing Tupou off the bench for impact with AAA doing the early grunt work is the best option at the moment.

Even if Tupou is an "Impact player" he would be playing about 35 minutes, which means if AAA was skipper he'd only be on the field for about half the game. Players like To'omua would play far more minutes. Also I'd have Tupou starting anyway on current form

 

[dru]

As the bloke who puts out the TOTW I can inform you that the the selections are highly skewed to the teams that win.

That would go with the form players would it not?

 

[Up the Guts]

I also don't really buy into the 'impact' argument for guys like Tupou and Hooper. Better to have their energy and explosiveness on the field for as long as possible.

I wouldn't say Hooper even is an 'impact player'. His value is that he's playing as hard in the 80th minute as he did in the 1st, that's why you want him on the field the whole time.

I don't like a direct substitution for a 7. Better to have either Wright or Samu on the bench to come on and play with Hooper.

 

[KevinO]

I wouldn't say Hooper even is an 'impact player'. His value is that he's playing as hard in the 80th minute as he did in the 1st, that's why you want him on the field the whole time.

I don't like a direct substitution for a 7. Better to have either Wright or Samu on the bench to come on and play with Hooper.

That sounds like 2011 RWC all over again, don't have a back up 7 and Hooper goes down injured.

 

[Derpus]

That sounds like 2011 RWC all over again, don't have a back up 7 and Hooper goes down injured.

That's the benefit of having Wright or Samu on the bench. Both can cover 7 to an extent.

As far as i can recall the only time Hooper has ever gone off injured was against Ireland where Samu deputised?

 

[Try-ranosaurus Rex]

That sounds like 2011 RWC all over again, don't have a back up 7 and Hooper goes down injured.

But this time you have a genuine 6/7 on the bench in Wright or a 6/8 in Samu that is capable of playing 7.

In 2011 we relied on an out-and-out No.8 in Ben McCalman.

 

[barbarian]

That sounds like 2011 RWC all over again, don't have a back up 7 and Hooper goes down injured.

Well the problem in 2011 wasn't that we had no backup 7 in the 23, it was that we had no backup 7 in the whole squad.......

 

[Jimmy_Crouch]

Well the problem in 2011 wasn't that we had no backup 7 in the 23, it was that we had no backup 7 in the whole squad...

Or that we didn't take note after about the 10th choke tackle for the match.

 

[wamberal]

Or that we didn't take note after about the 10th choke tackle for the match.

Bizarre tactics. Just dumb.

 

[Zero_Cool]

I think conflating the Tupou situation with the Hooper situation is a bit silly. The Tupou situation isn't anything close to the Hooper situation.
Tupou is in FAR better form than -- anyone else at the moment. Where as Hooper is likely depending on past form and experience to get him over the line.

The Hooper vs McReight & Wright question has at best for Hooper them on fairly close footing when considering recent form. Looking at the attacking numbers per game Hooper has fewer points than the other two, double the passes 3 vs 6, marginally more runs 9 vs 7(Mc) & 4(W), marginally more run meters 21 vs 20 (Mc) & 8 (W), between the two on meters per run 2.3 vs 2.9 (Mc) & 7.9 (W), no Clean breaks vs 0.8 (Mc) & 0.1 (W), between the two on defenders beaten 0.7 vs 1.3 (Mc) & 0.3 (W), and only winning on offloads 0.7 vs 0.2 (Mc) & 0.4 (W).
On defense McReight is a beats with 1.2 turnovers /game, with Wright & Hooper having 0.6 & 0.4 respectively. All are fairly comparable with 11 to 13 tackles a game and all making over 90% of there tackles. McReight gives up more penalties (because he's getting on the ball a lot more) at 1.3 a game, however Hooper is giving away nearly as meany penalties without that pay with 1 a game and Wright being very disciplined giving less than a penalty every two games. However Hooper has a yellow card unlike the Reds pair.

So by the numbers McReight is the best 7, while Hooper isn't too far behind but discipline is letting him down, but McReight is by no means a slouch.

(Stats taken from ESPN)

 

[Up the Guts]

Even taking your stats as gospel on a comparison of the two, for a rookie to unseat a 99 test Wallaby and incumbent captain you need to be playing significantly above them. It’s why NZ aren’t going to drop Sam Cane for someone like Dalton Papa’ili.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Counter point to that Gutz why would you play an old, under performing 'disgraced former captain'* player who is about to take off for 6 months when you've got an upstart 20 year old who is performing exceptionally.

But the answer is because you ought to pick your best team on recent form and at this stage of the cycle (new coach and new RWC cycle) where you have two similar players you tend to pick the younger player.

* Yeah, even I think disgraced is a bit far, this is just hyperbole. However he is objectively a worse ever captain in terms of win rate, and subjectively many argue him as being an awful captain with a track record of poor decision making, being a net negative with the referees, and who was dropped from being captain of his Super side because of this.

 

[qwerty51]

Nice fishing pal.

 

[Joe Blow]

Hooper is an 80 minute player. He starts as captain and you can have a 6/8 on the bench like Samu or maybe even Wright if you envisage a real on ball onslaught late in the game.
I would guess that Hooper will be the first bloke picked, maybe third after AAA and TT.

 

[Derpus]

Counter point to that Gutz why would you play an old, under performing 'disgraced former captain'* player who is about to take off for 6 months when you've got an upstart 20 year old who is performing exceptionally.

But the answer is because you ought to pick your best team on recent form and at this stage of the cycle (new coach and new RWC cycle) where you have two similar players you tend to pick the younger player.

* Yeah, even I think disgraced is a bit far, this is just hyperbole. However he is objectively a worse ever captain in terms of win rate, and subjectively many argue him as being an awful captain with a track record of poor decision making, being a net negative with the referees, and who was dropped from being captain of his Super side because of this.

You can bang on about it as much as you want but i think reality will not please you.

 

[KOB1987]

Like it or not incumbency does carry some weight at the start of an international season, this season even more so as we will be only be playing the All Blacks and in the first test we will have had 2 and a half weeks preparation and they will have had 2 and half months. I would add that in the pro era incumbents includes all the blokes in the 23. Even though it's a new coach that is going to be his starting point. And don't worry about the PONI list, that is by no means the Wallabies squad, it's a fairly fluid list.

This is the last Wallabies team to play:

1. Scott Sio
2. Tolu Latu
3. Allan Ala'alatoa
4. Izack Rodda
5. Rory Arnold
6. David Pocock
7. Michael Hooper (c)
8. Isi Naisarani
9. Will Genia
10. Christian Lealiifano
11. Marika Koroibete
12. Samu Kerevi
13. Jordan Petaia
14. Reece Hodge
15. Kurtley Beale
16. Jordan Uelese
17. James Slipper
18. Taniela Tupou
19. Adam Coleman
20. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto
21. Nic White
22. Matt To’omua
23. James O’Connor

For game 1, fill in the blanks.

 

[Try-ranosaurus Rex]

this is just hyperbole.

Understatement of the millennia.

 

[qwerty51]

I mean I'm taking out the non-blanks too. I think only Hooper and Naisrani will retain their starting pack spots. Likely Petaia and Korobiete in the backs too. All the bench should remain. So 4 starters remain for me. But 7 of the bench will either start be apart of the 23.

I just had a look at the All Blacks team that played England:

There's only 1 player that is gone from the starting side (Read) and 1 from the bench (SBW)

Nepo Laulala and Scott Barrett probably won't make it but apart from that the team looks likely to be the same. Huge difference compared to us.

edit: Retallick is not playing either.

 

[Up the Guts]

Counter point to that Gutz why would you play an old, under performing 'disgraced former captain'* player who is about to take off for 6 months when you've got an upstart 20 year old who is performing exceptionally.

But the answer is because you ought to pick your best team on recent form and at this stage of the cycle (new coach and new RWC cycle) where you have two similar players you tend to pick the younger player.

* Yeah, even I think disgraced is a bit far, this is just hyperbole. However he is objectively a worse ever captain in terms of win rate, and subjectively many argue him as being an awful captain with a track record of poor decision making, being a net negative with the referees, and who was dropped from being captain of his Super side because of this.

How are you going to convince others of your opinion if you can’t even say it without a caveat?

I’m going to move along but will conclude by saying that McReight looks a 50+ test player imo but he’s not a starter this year.

 

[Try-ranosaurus Rex]

I mean I'm taking out the non-blanks too. I think only Hooper and Naisrani will retain their starting pack spots. Likely Petaia and Korobiete in the backs too. All the bench should remain. So 4 starters remain for me. But 7 of the bench will either start be apart of the 23.

I just had a look at the All Blacks team that played England:

There's only 1 player that is gone from the starting side (Read) and 1 from the bench (SBW)

Nepo Laulala and Scott Barrett probably won't make it but apart from that the team looks likely to be the same. Huge difference compared to us.

edit: Retallick is not playing either.

Agreed.

With Sio and Alaalaatoa (and Hodge if he is lucky) reverting to the bench, that would result in 13 (or 14) of the 23 from the last game vs England in the game day squad.