I was attempting a scientific study of the Waratahs for 2009 and I am struck by the number of vacancies that have to be filled since there are 5 players going offshore, 1 retirement and probably 2 going to other franchises.
8 is a lot of spaces to fill and I wouldn?t be surprised if the Waratahs have to use their full quota of 5 rookies. This means that two experienced squad players will be replaced, in effect, by the 2 extra rookies compared to 2008.
This would put the Tahs at risk should there be a 2007 type injury toll and are forced to use too many inexperienced players but I think it will become inevitable for all Oz S14 franchise to have to deal with this offshore situation from now on.
There may be experienced blow-ins who are signed up before the 2009 S14 to avoid that but, on the other hand, some of the players we assume can be re-signed will get better offers.
So who will be the 5 x 2009 rookies if we have to use that many?
? Ratu Nasiganiyavi - signed for 2 years already
? Dan Palmer ? signed for 3 years already
? Adam Byrnes (Queensland?s poach not confirmed yet) or Chris Thompson ? both have had 1 year with Junior Waratahs and Byrnes has played in Europe.
? Lachlan Mitchell - replaces Harris ? has had 1 year with Junior Waratahs
? Ben Coridas or Patrick McCutcheon ? both have had 1 pro year with Junior Waratahs.
As for standard contracts: first you have to consider which of the 2008 rookies are worth promoting.
? Sepoku Kepu has been re-signed for 2009 (only)
? Alfi Mafi has been poached by the Brumbies
? Dave Dennis was injured during the ARC and I haven?t seen him since. I will assume that he won?t be promoted and that Coridas/McCutcheon can cover anything he was going to do.
Next you have to consider which players are definitely leaving or have retired:
? Ben Jacobs ? contract taken by Robbie Horne who had only an Academy contract at the start of 2008, but probably played too many S14 games to qualify as a rookie for 2009.
? Dan Vickerman - assume replaced by Campbell/Treloar blow-in.
? Al Kanaar - a spare contract for an experienced blow-in in some spot.
? Sam Harris ? L. Mitchell to cover his occasional reserve spot.
? Rocky Elsom ? Mowen to move to 6 but someone like Scott Fardy (apparently available for the Tahs now) or similar to take the contract spot.
? David Lyons ? Tim Davidson to get another 1 year deal, as per 2007, until someone else shows up.
Next you have to look at players with standard contracts whose contracts expire:
? Jeremy Tilse - contract spot to Kepu.
? Matt Cararro ? should be renewed.
? Ben Mowen - should be renewed to play 6.
? Daniel Halangahu ? should be renewed
? Will Caldwell ? reportedly re-signing for one more year.
? Adam Freier ? re-signed for two years.
? Al Manning - Roster spot to 4th rookie. 3rd string hooker can come from Academy.
? Josh Valentine ? will probably go back to the Reds, or to the Force, depending if he can get an ARU top up. Otherwise will probably go offshore if he can get a gig. Spot on roster goes to 5th rookie.
This will leave the Tahs with a squad of:
Props: S. Kepu, Benn R, A. Baxter, M. Dunning, D Palmer (R).
Hookers: TPN, A. Freier
2nd row: W. Caldwell, D. Mumm, Byrnes/Thompson (R), Campbell/Treloar (B)
Backrow: P.Waugh, Beau R, B. Mowen, S. Fardy (B,S), W. Palu, T. Davidson (S), Coridas/McCutcheon (R).
Scrummie: L. Burgess, B. Sheehan,
Flyhalves K. Beale, D. Halangahu
Midfield: T. Tahu, T. Carter, R. Horne, L.Mitchell (R).
Wing: R. Nasiganiyavi (R), L. Tuqiri, L. Turner, M. Cararro
Fullbacks: SNK, B. Batger
33rd man: A. Nother (B) A blow-in for any position.
Note 1 - R = Rookie / S = Or somebody similar / B = Blow-in from overseas or players returning from other S14 teams.
Note 2 - There are only two contracted scrummies in this list but Jeremy Sua should be given a professional Academy spot to be 3rd string. Ditto for hooker Damien Fitzpatrick who has had 1 year in the amateur Academy already. Lock Siviteni Mafi should be promoted to the Professional Academy also.
Note 3 ? Don?t give unfavourable comments on the players mentioned UNLESS an alternative is suggested. I don?t think some of them are great shakes either, but I was struggling.