The Conference System: Success or Failure?

[Tahfan]

Taking this years tournament as an example, the Crusaders may (arguably) match up better against the Waratahs than the Bulls. But it is quite likely that the Crusaders will finish 3rd, Blues 4th, Tahs 5th, and Bulls 6th.

Can I have some of what you are on please? Bulls had they made it were not going to trouble the cursaders after a long haul flight and as it is the comment is largely irrelevant as they could not do what the Tahs did and secure their last game.

in any case the Tahs are going into the finals with confidence and playing good rugby, I reckon the crusaders wouldn't care who they play but would probably be happier with the sharks (or the bulls had it been them) over the Tahs. Dont think the blues will be jumping for joy at having to play them! Biggest risk for NSW is the injuries, TPN seems to be being held together by masking tape at the moment and Fat Cat has had to do fitness tests past 2 weeks and their reserve second row this week will be interesting.

And the numbers are significant although I agree not the only consideration. 1&2 get home advantage in the semis which means team 3 can travel half way around the world (as Crusaders will have to do if they win)

 

[kiap]

Can I have some of what you are on please?

Common sense. You have to nurture it but I'm sure you've got it, deep down.

Bulls had they made it were not going to trouble the cursaders after a long haul flight and as it is the comment is largely irrelevant as they could not do what the Tahs did and secure their last game.

You quoted, but seem to have misunderstood, the words "example", "arguably", and "likely". They flesh out a scenario only to illustrate and compare possible paths from 3rd place and 4th place. Whether the Bulls or Tahs subsequently secure their last games is totally irrelevant to this purpose.

... team 3 can travel half way around the world (as Crusaders will have to do if they win)

I'm glad you had the good grace to state this because it is the crux of the matter.

The Crusaders are obviously happy about claiming the NZ title. But, barring upsets, their 3rd position and Cape Town will probably make it tougher for them to win the final this year, compared to the path from 4th position. In general, 3rd and 4th are much the same - but the path that ends up better depends on the other finalists. The travel required is the major factor. This finals draw depends on matches in the last couple of rounds and has an element of chance (I don't try to pretend otherwise).

Last night, the NZ sides had no control over which teams they got drawn to playoff against, and coming 3rd certainly didn't confer or guarantee any preferred option. It's clear and simple.
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[Geeves]

I have had dig through the results for the final 6 to look at the impact the conferences have had. The data breaks down who each team lost too in each conference and who they didn't play. The full analysis is here

[I
You can say that the Waratahs ability to only loose one game in the Aus Conference helped them make the finals.

How successful the conference system is will depend on how it operates next year (i.e. get to play everyone).

 

[tigerland12]

I think it was only this year that teams would play two less games. Because of the World Cup I believe they wanted to shorten it.

 

[vidiot]

The Waratahs were the only side not to record a win against a top 6 finalist.

I too have tried to forget the reds being thrashed by the tahs in week 2, but it will stick with me for some time.

 

[Utility Back]

i dont wanna be pedantic but the stormers beat the brumbies and lost to the blues

 

[Geeves]

i dont wanna be pedantic but the stormers beat the brumbies and lost to the blues

I got the data from: http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-union/super-rugby/fixtures

I should have got better data. They have the results the other way round. I stuffed up on the Blues game.

That then makes the Aussie conference even easier and the NZ conference hardest.

I'll update when I get a chance


Brumbies beat Stormers 16-3

 

[Geeves]

Okay the data for the table is updated and it doesn't make wonderful reading for the Aus conference. Full analysis (here)

A couple of summary statements, from 1st to 6th.

• The Reds defeated everyone in the top 6 apart from the Sharks who they didn’t play. The Reds toughest conference was the Australian one and their easiest conference was in SA.
• The Stormers only beat 3 sides in the top 6, they also beat the Sharks twice. They didn’t play the Waratahs. The Stormers found the SA and Aus conference the easiest (in terms of wins). The NZ conference was their hardest challenge where they lost one game and home (Crusaders) and away (Chiefs).
• The Crusaders beat 4 teams in the top 6 but they lost to the Reds and the Blues once. They found the NZ conference the toughest (2 losses and a draw) and they dropped one game in both the Aus and SA conference. They also missed the easiest teams to beat.
• The Blues found each conference equally as tough with 2 losses (okay a loss and draw in Aus and both away).
• The Waratahs did not like playing SA sides and they are probably lucky they didn’t play the Stormers. They only lost one game in the Aussie conference.
• The Sharks had no problems in the Aus conference but they didn’t play the minor premiers the Reds. The Sharks struggled in the SA conference.

 

[kiap]

Good work Geeves, and I agree that the Reds earned their top placing. The Reds had the best cross-conference record, losing only 1 game to an overseas side:

Reds
vs Aus sides: Won 6, Lost 2
vs Overseas sides: Won 7, Lost 1

Stormers and Waratahs had the best intra-conference records. These teams did well to each lose only 1 game within their own conference (their advantage wasn't huge though, given that the Top 6 teams lost, on average, 1.8 games within their own conference).

Stormers
vs SA sides: Won 7, Lost 1
vs Overseas sides Won 5, Lost 3

Waratahs
vs Aus sides: Won 7, Lost 1
vs Overseas sides: Won 3, Lost 5

Of greater significance was the Waratahs having the worst cross-conference record, by losing 5 games to overseas sides. This is worth looking at a bit further, and when you see the overseas tour draw it becomes clearer.

The Reds and Stormers (and Sharks) were helped by their decent draw. They each only played 1 top team on their overseas travels and got 3 bottom-half teams for their other matches.

The Waratahs, by contrast, had to play 4 top teams on their overseas trips. Their poor draw cost them.

Reds (@ Stormers, Canes, Chiefs, Lions)
vs Overseas sides, and playing away: Won 3, Lost 1

Stormers (@ Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies, Rebels)
vs Overseas sides, and playing away: Won 3, Lost 1

Waratahs (@ Crusaders, Blues, Sharks, Bulls)
vs Overseas sides, and playing away: Won 0, Lost 4

You've got to play the hand that's dealt. Swings and roundabouts. The Tahs lost those games by various margins, but were close enough to get 3 bonus points which in the end helped them squeeze into the playoffs. If they are good enough to beat the Blues at Eden Park next week then they are worthy semi-finalists.

I personally don't like the Tahs style of play, but they are gathering momentum and form at the right time of the season. Injuries might cruel them, but they could still be a handful for the Blues next week.

 

[I like to watch]

I am also not a fan of the Tah's style of play, however I do believe that is the style that might unsettle the Blues.
fingers crossed!

 

[kiap]

I am also not a fan of the Tah's style of play, however I do believe that is the style that might unsettle the Blues.
fingers crossed!

Yup. Injuries are their concern but the pack could worry the Blues for sure.

Tahs didn't do so badly against the overseas sides as some people assumed either. Admittedly they got dusted by the Crusaders, but they were close to taking out the Bulls and Sharks. All those games were away from home and a few things in those matches did not go their way.

Anyway, bring on Friday night!

 

[PaarlBok]

Stormers and Waratahs had the best intra-conference records. These teams did well to each lose only 1 game within their own conference (their advantage wasn't huge though, given that the Top 6 teams lost, on average, 1.8 games within their own conference).

Stormers
vs SA sides: Won 7, Lost 1
vs Overseas sides Won 5, Lost 3

Stormers (@ Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies, Rebels)
vs Overseas sides, and playing away: Won 3, Lost 1

Stormers had an interesting one. Last year they lost only once on Newlands (Brumbies) and have beaten all NZ teams but struggled against the Aus teams. We made the final and lost against the Brutes in the final. They made the CC final and lost against the Sharks. This year they look like they have grown beating all SA teams home and away bar the Brute Newlands loss. Had a good tour and lost on Newlands. Finally made their first aim by topping the SA conferense. Now they had to show they can do it in the play offs. Pretty sure if they had to travel (only the Reds can give them an away final) they wont bodder that much. I am more worried about the Newlands semi at the moment. Newlands will be a sold out in hours I suspect and the Newlands pressure cooker look like hurting them this year.

 

[kiap]

Stormers had an interesting one. Last year they lost only once on Newlands (Brumbies) and have beaten all NZ teams but struggled against the Aus teams. We made the final and lost against the Brutes in the final. They made the CC final and lost against the Sharks. This year they look like they have grown beating all SA teams home and away bar the Brute Newlands loss. Had a good tour and lost on Newlands. Finally made their first aim by topping the SA conferense. Now they had to show they can do it in the play offs. Pretty sure if they had to travel (only the Reds can give them an away final) they wont bodder that much. I am more worried about the Newlands semi at the moment. Newlands will be a sold out in hours I suspect and the Newlands pressure cooker look like hurting them this year.

OomPB, yeah will be pressure at home but I still think the Stormers will be looking good for their semifinal. Whoever wins out of Blues/Tahs will have had a tough elimination game while the Stormer are relaxing and healing injuries.

The 20-hr flight wont help the australasians (either one) much as well. - Good luck boet.

 

[PaarlBok]

OomPB, yeah will be pressure at home but I still think the Stormers will be looking good for their semifinal. Whoever wins out of Blues/Tahs will have had a tough elimination game while the Stormer are relaxing and healing injuries.

The 20-hr flight wont help the australasians (either one) much as well. - Good luck boet.

Only the Tahs will have to travel. The Reds, we will have to do the travelling. Dont think it will bodder us comes final time IF we get there. we like them Tahs.

 

[kiap]

Only the Tahs will have to travel. The Reds, we will have to do the travelling. Dont think it will bodder us comes final time IF we get there. we like them Tahs.

Okay mate, time will tell, but I was taking about Blues or Waratahs (Australasia = Australia and New Zealand).

 

[PaarlBok]

Okay mate, time will tell, but I was taking about Blues or Waratahs (Australasia = Australia and New Zealand).

Oh sorry Boet. Age I think.

 

[kiap]

No worries Oom. I was also (fancifully) assuming that the Crusaders would be beaten by the Sharks there. I think the Shorks are the only team who will definitely not play in the Semi-final in Cape Town (they are Brisbane or bust). In order of likelihood it would still be Crusaders first, Blues, then Waratahs.

 

[Langthorne]

The overseas away matches weren't the problem for the Waratahs, the problem was losing to the Cheetahs at home and the Reds away. Sort those two results out and the table looks a lot better for them.

 

[Richo]

The overseas away matches weren't the problem for the Waratahs, the problem was losing to the Cheetahs at home and the Reds away. Sort those two results out and the table looks a lot better for them.

Cheetahs at home is unacceptable, but the Reds are an excellent team this year. Much as I would love to have thrashed them both times (not just once), there is no shame in splitting the series -- for either team.

 

[REDinCPT]

as happy as i am that the tahs made the finals, i cannot help but think that there is another team out there which didn't make the finals, who would've given the blues a better run for their money. i wouldn't be surprised if the bulls were not the greatest fans of the conference system. granted, the bulls only have themselves to blame after a very ordinary start to the season, but i wouldn't be surprised if they wished they would have been able to play the rebels, brumbies and force twice this season.