I think the best way to look at this match is by analysing the key areas. The Reds and the Crusaders are the two best teams in the comp- not a lot separated them last time, and not a lot will separate them on Saturday. The Crusaders look like the perfect 'team' on paper- strong, reliable forwards and backs with plenty of big-game experience and success. The Reds are the perfect crowd pleaser's- flashy backs, minimal scrums, exciting tries. Both teams know their style and employ their game plan to great effect. So lets take a look at these key aspects:
Scrum:
A front row of Franks-Flynn-Crockett obviously has the wood over Daley-Fainga'a-Holmes. The 'Saders will play a game orientated around the set piece and the young Queensland front row will have to give everything to stop it. With Sir Richie calling the shots I have no doubt that his unrivalled ability to influence the referee will lead to the Reds' scrum being constantly penalised once it starts to collapse. The Crusaders win this one.
Line-out:
Once again, the Crusaders look to have this one over the Reds. Although the Reds jumpers are just as good as the opposition (IMO Simmons has done an excellent job calling the shots this year), Fainga'a's throwing really worries me. It has seemingly been worsening since the last few rounds of competition, and if he continues to throw dodgy ball then Lawrence will be straight onto it. Crusaders for me.
Breakdown:
This is a tough one. The Crusaders have a phenomenal back-row in Whitelock-Read-McCaw (not to mention Todd), however I think the Reds can match them. Higginbotham plays a very loose game, but Beau Robinson has done an exceptional job, and coupled with the hearty efforts that Daley, Samo, Horwill et al. have shown they can produce I feel the Reds can nullify any advantage the 'Saders have. Gill has been doing an outstanding job recently, and I think he can match Todd coming off the bench. Reds for me (in a close one), as long as Lawrence disciplines McCaw when he does what he does best.
Attack and Defence:
The Reds backline is the most creative and explosive in Super Rugby. Quade Cooper's ability to create something out of nothing is unrivalled by any player in the world. Anybody who doubts this should go and find a highlights package from last weekend's Semi-Final, where his footwork and skill set led to an unbelievable Ben Tapuai try. His counter-attack from fullback has been a revelation, and coupled with Digby Ioane's line-breaking ability and Rod Davies' lightning speed, it is almost impossible to defend against this backline. Tapuai and Fainga'a were able to contain SBW last time round, so there's no reason it can't happen again. Dan Carter's backline is loaded with skill and speed, but I just don't think they can match QLD. Reds have both attack and defence in the bag.
Place Kicking:
Goal-kicking could very easily determine who wins this years Super Rugby trophy. Cooper's penalty with only one minute left on the clock won the Reds the match last time, and I feel a similar outcome is imminent. Cooper's goal-kicking is somewhat enigmatic- he can miss in front, then nail one from the sideline only 5 minutes apart. Carter's talent will play a massive part in how this match is played, with the Crusaders likely to take a no-risk, points driven approach. I'd have Carter kicking over Cooper any day. Crusaders for me.
So 3-3. Very close, but hardly surprising. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, so it'll be a contest right until the final whistle. I'm tipping the Reds by 6, but I wouldn't be surprised if the result is reversed.
