Wilson
Phil Kearns (64)
Crusaders will bounce back some when they get McNicholl in at fullback and a few players back from injury (Burke and/or Reihana in particular), but it's a while before they're available. I think they'll still make the eight, but how high they can get is probably decided in the next three weeks with games against the Canes, Blues and Chiefs. I won't write them off for making their way through the knock outs just yet, but it looks like a lot of the teams they'll face will have beaten them in the regular season and the aura will be diminished.
For the favourites I think the Hurricanes have just about earned that. The strength of their scrum and the players they have due to come back in (Barret, Kirifi and Shields in particular) make it look like they're only improving from here. Two tough, important wins against what look to be two of the other contenders at this early stage are invaluable too. They have a great chance to really build on their momentum over the next month before facing the Chiefs after the bye, so they should be fresh and firing.
Reds and Chiefs look pretty tight in 2 and 3 at the moment, but the Reds still have plenty to prove to stay up there. Like the Canes they do have a chance to go on a pretty good run here, particularly if they get over the Rebels on Friday. The gloss has come off the Chiefs just a bit and I think teams will have really paid attention to what the Reds have done (and how they've done it) to them recently, but they still have one hell of team and a lot of fluency and confidence. Tough to split the two at this stage though.
Blues have improved on last year, selection stuff up last weekend aside, and I think they'll be pretty solid for 4th at this stage. Their clash with the Brumbies in round 8 will be an interesting one, but at this stage I see it playing out the opposite to last year, with the Blues very much the side in control. They do also look to be getting ahead of their All Black resting requirements, something that might bite the other kiwi sides later in the year given the closeness of the competition.
From there it's all a bit of a mess. Definitely think the Brumbies will make the 8, but they've got a lot to do to get back to anything like last years form. tahs can absolutely do it, but the pressure on the coach may tell on the team and they have a worrying injury list already. Rebels are even more vulnerable to that outside pressure but do look to be trending in the right direction. 3 challenging weeks in a row (Reds (h), Canes (A), tahs (A)) could break them if they don't get a win and/or pick up some bad injuries though. Highlanders are pushing well and Jamie Joseph and Patchell coming in look to have made a real difference, but that squad looks thin and I don't think they can afford to make mistakes. SHould probably snake a spot this year. Drua will probably win everything at home and almost nothing away. Force would have something if they had a tight 5. Moana will get an upset or two but I don't think they'll be in the conversation
That was a very long, somewhat out of order break down, so here's where I think we're headed, single line groupings I can't really split at the moment and you could probably merge 5-10 into one big group:
1. Hurricanes
2/3. Reds/Chiefs
4. Blues
5/6/7 Brumbies/Drua/Highlanders
8/9/10 Crusaders/tahs/Rebels
11. Force
12. Moana
Only 3 rounds in thoug so a lot can change.
