Hugh's random thoughts for the day.
There is a fairly good history of the NSW (sydney centric) 1996 birth cohort on these threads from Under 15's (2011) onwards.
Now some of these lads were top age and left school at the end of 2013, but most are in still at school this year (Y12) and should be in line for School Association, State Schoolboys, and Aust Schoolboy selection.
It makes for interesting reading if you line up the 2011 Sydney JRU U15 reps, NSW JRU U15 Reps, [No NSW CJRU U15 squad list] with the 2012 NSW Schools U16, SJRU U16, and NSW CJRU U16 from 2012 National Schoolboys, and the 2013 U18 School Association teams, SJRU/CJRU and NSWJRU U17 rep teams, and the various keyboard selector rep teams being bandied around for 2014.
If you have a spare hour or two and are in need of a good chuckle, dive into the G&GR Archives and read a page or two from the Schoolboy threads of a cohort as they progress. Not only have the kids developed, so have many of the posters associated that that cohort.
Some names have dropped off the radar fairly quickly, and other names continue to polish their star with on field performances. The rate of fall off for some seems directly proportional to the ability of Parents, and reputation, to influence selections. Those that have left school (or are Y12 moonlighting in Colts from the Private Schools, or in Colts because SJRU no longer provide a viable competition for them and their school does not have a rugby programme) face the harsh reality of needing to perform at training and on the field week in week out, or they find themselves riding the pine or getting dropped down a grade. In the harsh reality of Colts footy, reputations count for nothing in most clubs, and there is plenty of young men who will do whatever it takes to advance up a grade, or to make it off the pine and into the starting 15.
How good were the 2011 Under 15 "Talent Scouts"?
The pass mark for this cohort would seem to be "maintain a run on starting position in Colts 2" in 2014, or to be in one of the 2014 State Schoolboys teams (or both). The latter names will be announced in June after the selection trials, the former is published week by week on the NSW Rugby web site.
There are lads from this cohort who as 17 turning 18 years old in 2014 that are regular starters in Colts 1 teams (up against 19 turning 20 year olds). This would be seen as an above average performance, however this is still no guarantee of selection into higher level rep footy. I recall a lad last year that was in the Koala Club, played regular Colts 1 footy week in week out for his club (which was one of the better performing teams in Colts 1 2013), starred for his School association team, and made the State Schoolboys Team. I saw a couple of his rep games and thought that he would be off to the UK with the National team. Unfortunately for him, there were some lads in the other teams that were deemed to have performed better than him at the National Tournament, and they got to tour. Life is like that sometimes.
It is rather obvious that our "Talent Spotting" at Under 14/U15 is a little haphazard, and influenced by cronyism, O'Beidishness, self interest and WII-FM, however for every lad that is selected due to Dads influence, there are two Andrew Kellaway's and Angus Crichton's that reward that development investment in bucketloads.
The challenge is, if we discard reps, what mechanism is there to keep these latter boys in the game, and to provide them with challenges that continue to extend them as they develop and mature.
For some boys who miss out on rep selection due to being on the wrong side of cronyism, this can be a very powerful motivator for them to work on their skills, fitness, strength, dedication, discipline and application, to prove that the Selectors got it wrong. This often stands them in good stead in later years when they are up for selection against the those that have previously had an easy ride courtesy of Daddy and his influence. David Horwitz probably falls into this category. It is also a good lesson in life. Selection into rep teams, and national teams as an adult is also subject to all sorts of influences other than performance on the playing field. It is just that those interfering in that process are not generally family relations.