RWC - Wallabies v Ireland - 17th September 2011

[Logorrhea]

Must admit, from an Irish point of view I'm more than a little worried. The team, regardless of the individuals on the teamsheet just arent performing. We have had four warm up games to click but we still couldnt get a bonus point against what is effectively an amateur USA team.

The Irish team wont contain many surprises, though so many of them are out of form.

The front row selection will depend on whether Healy gets fit. Hes a hugely dynamic runner and tackler for us around the park. Hes a big loss if missing. Hopefully he'll be fit.

1. Healy
2. Best
3. Ross

Second row are undroppable. Regardless of how bad O'Callaghan may play, he will never be dropped for Cullen. Having said that, O'Callaghan actuially played okay for once against the US.

4. O'Callaghan
5. O'Connell

The backrow is the one area of strength. We dont play a poacher so assuming all of them are fit (they are I believe), it'll be;

6. Ferris
7. O'Brien
8. Heaslip

Half-backs are a huge issue for Ireland. Having persisted with Tomas O'Leary for the last two years, Kidney has finally worked out that hes shite. Murrays not ready so it'll be Reddan at 9, but the question is now whether he'll play Sexton or O'Gara at 10. History shows he hates playing Reddan and Sexton together. I think Sexton is the better option as he'll challenge the defense better. Kidney will pick O'Gara.

9. Reddan
10. O'Gara

The centres are a huge area of concern for us. Defensively they are small but solid, but offensively they have done nothing. Darcy in particular has been playing quite poor (O'Driscoll has been average at best). A lot of people would like to see McFadden give a run, but its probably too late to experiment. I can see Kidney going beyond;

12. Darcy
13. O'Driscoll

The back three will most likely be Earls and Bowe on the wings. Trimble has been the best wing in Irelands past 4 games but Kidney prefers Earls. After that, if Kearney is fit, he will probably go for him, if not Murphy.

11. Earls
14. Bowe
15. Kearney

On their day they could do a job, but they only see there day once every two or three years. I dont think we'll be able to do much to be honest. You guys should win by 2 clear scores.

The one selection that would make me optimistic would be the selection of Reddan and Sexton at 9 and 10. The last time these guys played together for Leinster we won the HEC, the last time they played together for Ireland we hockeyed (I mean absolutely hammered em) England in the 6 nations. Neither are particulatly awesome players, but on form they can do real damage.

 

[Braveheart81]

Given Diggers' injury, I'd be playing this backline against Ireland.

9. Genia
10. Cooper
11. Mitchell
12. McCabe
13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14. O'Connor
15. Beale

With Burgess and Barnes on the bench.

I think Shmoo will be absolutely ready to go. He looked good in the Baa Baas game and he's had several weeks then to keep improving.

 

[Logorrhea]

Please f*ck let it rain. Lots and lots and lots of it.

 

[Bowside]

Given Diggers' injury, I'd be playing this backline against Ireland.

9. Genia
10. Cooper
11. Mitchell
12. McCabe
13. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14. O'Connor
15. Beale

With Burgess and Barnes on the bench.

I think Shmoo will be absolutely ready to go. He looked good in the Baa Baas game and he's had several weeks then to keep improving.

I'd play Fainga'a off the bench, but that line up looks mighty fine. Any chance of Palu?

 

[daz]

Logorrhea

Nice post abve Logorrhea. Well thought out and topical with some decent comments thrown in for good measure. Are you sure you belong here?

I tend to agree that the Wallabies should win this by at least 2 tries, but I am also very concious of the job the Irish boys did against the Poms in that wonderful 6N outing. If you can get RO'G, PO'C and BO'D firing the same way, it might be interesting to see if they can limit Wallaby possesion at the breakdown, and even bash and crash some line break runs.

But, my gut says the Irish are all downhill and rudderless at the moment, which is a shame as of all the 6N teams, I do like the Irish lads.

 

[Lee Grant]

Agree - good post above Logorhhea.

Front row - I don't think any Ireland fan will be fooled by the dominance of the Ireland scrum on Sunday. Pot Plant THP Mike Ross has been a good find for Ireland in the last 12 months and can hold his own with most, but it was funny to see LHP Tom Court drive through the TH side of the USA scrum like Godzilla. Healey is about the same as Court as a LHP scrummager but he will be a plus around the park if available. I thought hooker Best had a terrific game and should start again.

2nd row - POC was terrific and is the most indispensable forward in the pack and has to stay healthy in the RWC for Ireland to have any chance. Yeah DOC ahead of Cullen not least for the Munster connection.

Backrow: You are right IMO even though SOB usually plays 6. Ferris was the best backrower for Ireland against the USA, but 8. Heaslip will have to pick up his game, with Leamy around, as he was strangely quiet. SOB hasn't played for a while and I wonder if he is OK.

Halves. ROG will be the 10. Sexton demonstrated again that he can't orchestrate a backline - unless things are going OK. ROG changed things when he came on. As to who will be his scrummie - it's a tough one with TOL not there. Murray was almost unheard of 12 months ago except by the cognoscenti and I was surprised that he was chosen in the squad. 9. Reddan and 10. ROG makes sense except that Reddan and Sexton play together for Leinster. On the other hand Murray and ROG both play for Munster, but haven't played together a lot.

Boss could be a wild card.

Centres - 12. D'Arcy was poor against the USA and it's hard to remember when he played well in a test match. His defence last season was full of holes also. As you say: it is probably a bit late to change. Deccie using Earls to play 13. in the trial against England was wrong before the match and certainly wrong during it. With BOD sitting that one out McFadden should have got a shot. If he played OK then he could have been considered for 12 in the upcoming match. I fear that this splendid player may end up a RWC dirt-tracker because of hopes that another player (D'Arcy) may come good.

Back 3- Kearney will have to come in at 15. I was all for Murphy playing last weekend with Kearney under an injury cloud but he's a Steady Eddie player and Ireland needs spark. Kearney has a track record of providing that against Oz and he has to play even if rusty. Bowe on one wing, of course, but I don't think that Earls is completely safe. Trimble has shortcomings but he knows the way to the try line and Deccie has to roll the dice.

Somehow Ireland has to find their unexpected form in the last 6N game against England - one of the few good games they have played in the last 12 months. If they can, they have a good chance of winning. If they don't, I think they will have to rely on Oz playing beneath how they have been recently.

Apart from the names of the players, the forwards will have to be quicker to the breakdown else Pocock will skin them. And Logorhhea - how come your guys played in the rain on Sunday as though they had never done so before?

 

[thedubs]

Lee

Sexton can run a backline better than most flyhalfs, bar Carter and Cooper. He's the reason why Leinster dominated the HC this year. Sure SOB made an outstanding performance on an individual basis, Heaslip was technically outstanding, but Sexton was the orchastrator.

Theres a lack of penetration in the backs - I believe it stems from the number 12 slot. Either a physical fella over 6.2ft is needed to barge over the gainline, or a fast nimble, O'driscoll esque player is needed. But thats a different story.

Thinking of how Ireland are imploding makes me want to go on a rampage. Ireland have one of the best individual squads in world rugby IMO. France, South Africa and NZ are the only ones to have better ones in this moment of time. That takes into account both skill and depth. Just to back up that claim - its a squad with 2 Heineken cup winning teams, who've both won two seperate heineken cups in the past 6 years. That would be like the Reds winning the S15 one year, then the Rebels the Brumbies the next. Thats something special. How they're not dominating the world stage is an obvious coaching issue, as this team has potential. If it does click it can beat Australia, perhaps even heavily. However the chances of them clicking are around 20/30%. If they dont I'd predict Australia getting 3 potentially four tries, a dour game with Australia getting second phase tries. But thats in a full irish meltdown - Its worth bearing in mind Ireland have one of the top defences in the world. I only SA and NZ ahead of it for positioning.

Perhaps ive gone on, but thats the flip side of the coin for any Aussie supports here that don't know too much about Ireland and will just be reading the rash statements in Newspapers. I like to think im impartial given I watch HC and S15(Depending on times).

(On a side note, I've lost my password for my alternate account - how do I get it back if the emails forgotten about?!)

 

[potogold]

intesity is what ireland, and any team for that matter, need to bring. when ireland bring intensity and consistency in their play thats when they're dangerous.

so for me their form isnt the biggest issue, its just whether they will bring the game they can. in the 6n they were useless against scotland italy and wales, but against france and england they were terrific. they outscored france 3-1 in tries, and while everyone thinks that they only played well against ENG, i think of the england game as a carbon copy of the france match minus stupid penalties.
they normally get dragged down to the level of opposition and rise to an occassion, so ill give it 50/50 theyll turn up, and who knows from there.
however australia are sick, sooo theres your other problem..................

 

[Riptide]

Well, I'm going to take a contrarian view. The Irish will be smashed. It's not even going to be close. Ireland got owned at the breakdown this past weekend behind a dominant scrum and lineout. The USA are not close to being a good side, but yet Ireland only managed 3 line breaks all game, and 2 offloads against them. Ireland are bare of any confidence and they are not going to suddenly find it against the Wallabies. They cannot put a cohesive back-line move together even with the rare, infrequent quick ball they produce and Kidney has messed about with the 9 and 10 positions for over two season now and still it's unclear who his starters are there.

Front row, ADV Aus; Ireland have a solidly performing unit at scrum time but have no cover. Ross is as mobile as a braised leg of lamb and does absolutely nothing outside of the scrum. He cant even move his feet to be in position to make the tackle.

Locks ADV Aus O’Connell is an excellent lock, a top line out operator but lacks physical impact in contact. He goes to ground too easily. O’Callaghan is rubbish; he hasn’t played well except for the odd game (usually England) for years but Kidney persists with him as he is a “tryer”. His indiscipline is good for at least 3 points if not six Australian points. He places no pressure on the opposition line out, is not a ball carrier, does not hit rucks that hared anymore and is a lousy ball-carrier.

Back-row ADV AusFerris is a stud, a powerful no-nonsense 6 who really clears rucks and does the business with ball in hand and he is ferocious if not entirely accurate in the tackle. For me, he is ireland’s best player if fit. Heaslip has been in poor form and did absolutely nothing against the US. I had to check to see that he was playing. He will not find form against Aus. At 7, with Wallace out, Ireland have to play SOB there but it negates his main strength as a ball carrier, and he is NOT a 7. Pocock will own him or anyone else the Irish plays here. When picked at 7 by Leinster in their HEC (semi and final), it was apparent SOB wasn’t up to it; Leinster were not effective on the ground or at the breakdown until Jennings replaced SOB at 7, and SOB was shifted to 6 where he then had real impact. With SOB at 7, this Irish backrow is imbalanced but they are desperate for ball-carriers and Jennings has proven time and time again that he is not a Test quality No. 7. At 6, Ireland have 2 superb players, but only one can play there. At 7, they have nobody and were reliant on a 35 yr old to compete in the most demanding position on the field, but he got crocked before the plane left Ireland.

9/10 ADV Aus At scrumhalf, the Irish are simply woeful. None of their options is that useful never mind of Test quality and all take an age to clear the ball from the base, and are then frequently inaccurate. Reddan will probably get selected by default as Murray is too inexperienced and was slow and indecisive against the USA. At 10, Sexton has been poor in green. His game management or kicking game is simply not at O’Gara’s level and O’Gara will probably get the nod even though his defense is of Quade Cooper quality (although he does throw his body in there) and he cannot fix the opposition drift as he is never a threat to run. It’s for this reason that the best passer in the Irish game, Stringer, was left at home; you can’t have a 9 and a 10 in the modern game when neither present a running threat to the opposition defense.

Centers EVEN D’Arcy has become a turnstile. The US made plenty of ground running right at D’Arcy and O’Driscoll both of whom are living off reputations, have lost considerable speed and no longer present much of a threat to break the gain line. When D’Arcy can actually hold on to a ball, he doesn’t break the advantage line anymore and he misses tackles now with alarming frequency. McFadden is available but Kidney will not pick him even though D'Arcy's form has been abject. O’Driscoll still runs superbly clever, angled lines but his lack of pace means he is only a threat close to the line, but he is a huge threat. The Irish are so dependant on him that it’s ridiculous. Without him they have no creativity or penetration. O'Driscoll is also a 'lead by example' player and his defense is utterly committed, although he has shown some frailty there in recent times.. It's evident the enormous influence he has on the field

Back three, ADV Aus if Ireland play Kearney at 15 then there goes their running, linking game (whatever is left of it). He is superb under the high ball, has a big match temperament but he has no pace and not much of a pass. Bowe is excellent even if he was crap for much of the game against USA and Earls has yet to do anything to justify the hype the Irish pumped him to some years ago. He is a good open field runner but doesn’t go looking for work and makes poor decisions defensively.

Finally at coach, Kidney is out of his depth. He was never known as a technical coach, but earned a rep as good man manager with Munster. He continues to make the same mistakes for the past couple of years years, and Ireland really have only had one really decent game in those two years. He persists with selecting players that only occasionally produce and frequently disappoint (O’Callaghan, D’Arcy etc.) and he has been the architect of an Irish team that is playing with zero confidence, doesn't know who its 7, 9 or 10 is going to be, and plays with no guile or even trademark tenacity. He is a “Gee, ah shucks” type of coach. The best thing about that Irish side coaching team is the formidable Les Kiss, a good Aussie defensive coach. Gaffney, the attack coach is rubbish.

Ireland are justifiably ranked 8th in the world. They are no sure thing to beat Italy (if they remain healthy) to emerge from the group and then they will then face a quick exit as usual. They haven't the confidence, the belief to win a big game now and when they have won such a game, it has been at home and a once-off. They are a diminishing force. Kidney has taken the Champions of Europe in 4 of the past 6 seasons (Munster, then Leinster) and rendered them impotent. They play with no distinguishing style and Kidney seems unable to pick the personnel they need to play the game they want.

The Wallabies will win this easily. I know this forum trying to be generous to visitors but let's give them the respect they deserve by being honest with them; Ireland have no chance against the Wallabies, because they simply aren't that good, and the Wallabies are much better.

 

[Riptide]

Thinking of how Ireland are imploding makes me want to go on a rampage. Ireland have one of the best individual squads in world rugby IMO. France, South Africa and NZ are the only ones to have better ones in this moment of time. That takes into account both skill and depth.

I'm sorry but when is the last time this crack Irish team has EVER beaten anyone of note away from home? When was the last time this Irish team beat someone ranked higher than them when not playing in the wet of Lansdowne, Croke Park or Aviva stadium? When was the last time they beat any team of note at home even; a full team that is, not a Springbok team resting 7 or 8 regulars? Is it 3 or 4 years maybe?

 

[Larno]

We're effed. Truth hurts sometimes.

 

[Joe Mac]

Im not worried about Ireland one bit. I am worried that the Wallabies have won three games in a row now and going by this squads past patterns of performance; we are due to implode.

 

[RedsHappy]

Well, I'm going to take a contrarian view. The Irish will be smashed. It's not even going to be close. ....

Finally at coach, Kidney is out of his depth. He was never known as a technical coach, but earned a rep as good man manager with Munster. He continues to make the same mistakes for the past couple of years years, and Ireland really have only had one really decent game in those two years. He persists with selecting players that only occasionally produce and frequently disappoint (O’Callaghan, D’Arcy etc.) and he has been the architect of an Irish team that is playing with zero confidence, doesn't know who its 7, 9 or 10 is going to be, and plays with no guile or even trademark tenacity. He is a “Gee, ah shucks” type of coach. The best thing about that Irish side coaching team is the formidable Les Kiss, a good Aussie defensive coach. Gaffney, the attack coach is rubbish. Ireland are justifiably ranked 8th in the world. They are no sure thing to beat Italy (if they remain healthy) to emerge from the group and then they will then face a quick exit as usual. They haven't the confidence, the belief to win a big game now and when they have won such a game, it has been at home and a once-off. They are a diminishing force. Kidney has taken the Champions of Europe in 4 of the past 6 seasons (Munster, then Leinster) and rendered them impotent. They play with no distinguishing style and Kidney seems unable to pick the personnel they need to play the game they want. The Wallabies will win this easily. I know this forum trying to be generous to visitors but let's give them the respect they deserve by being honest with them; Ireland have no chance against the Wallabies, because they simply aren't that good, and the Wallabies are much better.

Riptide: Tahs fans will likely not applaud your assessment of Gaffney, but, whatever, thanks indeed for such a thoughtful and interesting post.

 

[BDA]

I'm tossing up between having Higgers and Palu on the bench or Mitchell and Barnes on the bench. Probably the latter.

 

[Jets]

Yet with all that has been stated in this thread I am really worried about this game. Whenever the Wallabies look to be on a roll and full of confidence they come up against a team that is completely out of form and play some of the most stupid rugby you will ever see. Ireland also have a history of troubling Australia no matter where the game is played so that doesn't help.

I think the Wallabies need to show up defensively and therefore I think Ant will stay at 13. My real issue is who will take Diggers spot in the defensive line? I hope it is AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) as he has the ability to combat the Irish backrow running at the 10 channel and also so that he has the opportunity to attack off turn over ball like Diggers did to start the momentum for the try against the Italians.

I would like to see more of an injection of the back 3 in attack as the game progresses as well and use the 2 centres as dummy options as I think the Irish may struggle against Gilbert's pace and JOC (James O'Connor)'s footwork. It was nice to see AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) sort out his running lines on the weekend as that is a real strength of his game when in form.

I am comfortable with the Wallabies tight 5 as they seem to be playing consistently well and hopefully the backrow smash the breakdown like the game at Lang Park. Rocky should be up for a big game as he would know many of the Irish team and hopefully that spurs him on. Samo was a little quiet against the Italians but he adds the X factor required in attack and he needs to be told to go out and smash blokes in defense to set the standards the team requires.

The Irish lineout consists of throwing the ball to POC so if he is heavily marked then it could create some turn over ball.

I think I may have convinced myself to be a bit more confident but it will be a very interesting game.

 

[Braveheart81]

I think we should stick with the 5-2 split as that to me seems the best way to take advantage of the fact that we have a really versatile backline.

Forwards have a greater opportunity to use their energy up in less than 80 minutes and thus make a greater impact and then be replaced than backs do.

 

[Joe Mac]

I thought Samo was the near MOM of the weekend. Just because he doesn't run 55 metres to score a try doesn't mean he wasn't in everything; offensively and defensively.

I also predict a huge game from Rocky. Many a Leinster fan will want to see Rocky, the previous man touted as their "greatest 6" compared to the current "greatest 6." Rocky will want to stamp his claim all over SOB's head.

I am starting to over excite myself. Bring on the weekend!

 

[Lee Grant]

Welcome aboard dubs

Sexton can run a backline better than most flyhalfs, bar Carter and Cooper.

In test matches? That's funny. Yes, I've seen all Leinster's HC games since he started. He was good at that level and the Magners and may well come good later on in big test matches. He has the tools, but needs some of ROG's bloody mindedness and a year or two more.

Theres a lack of penetration in the backs - I believe it stems from the number 12 slot.

Sure D'Arcy has played some poor rugby both with and without the ball, but it's more than one player, or one thing.

Ireland, like any other team, including the Wallabies (and the All Blacks in Brisbane and Port Elizabeth), struggle at the back when the forwards don't go forward. Ireland had that problem in the trial games and against Italy in 6N. They have to get back to the forward form against England in 6N, as their form against the same team in the trial recently was a poor contrast.

Ireland have one of the best individual squads in world rugby IMO.

How they're not dominating the world stage is an obvious coaching issue, as this team has potential.

That's not my opinion. Playing their best they can beat any team on the day like any team ranked 8th can, and could beat Oz on Saturday, but they have no depth in their side. Injuries to BOD, POC and Ross would be debilitating. Sure Oz have the same problem with depth, but we are not making claims of having one of the best individual squads because we know we are skinny in some positions.

Coaching problems - Ireland fans were saying that when EOS was in charge and the bloke before him and the bloke before that. Ireland had a good year when they won the Slam; so there's not much wrong with the coach. Sometimes you have to admit that the players are not playing well. It's no use telling the guy on the scoreboard how much potential your team has. We've being saying that for years about the Wallabies.


As for the technical matter you mention: send a PM to Moses (the forum member, not the religious leader.)

 

[jay-c]

let's give them the respect they deserve by being honest with them;Ireland have no chance against the Wallabies.

haha
joe macs on the money > considering weve had 3 good games in a row we are due for 2 bad ones

 

[Lee Grant]

I thought Samo was the near MOM of the weekend. Just because he doesn't run 55 metres to score a try doesn't mean he wasn't in everything; offensively and defensively.

And playing against a European team means it's a slower game so he lasted the whole 80 minutes - something you wouldn't want him doing against a 3N team. Remember how he was blowing against the All Blacks? He could also last 80 against Ireland who don't play a high tempo game usually.