RWC 2011 SF2: Australia vs. New Zealand

[Mica]

AB's looked shaky tonight without an experienced 10. After watching both matches I think Australia will go in the more confident of the two, Pocock and Horwill played blinders today and the form of JOC (James O'Connor) is looking ominous. NZ will be relying on the fitness of McCaw, Slade and Dagg but look a team with no real direction.

Wallabies by 10.

Best 3 for each team:
Aus - 3 Pocock, 2 Genia, 1 Vickerman
NZ - 3 Kaino, 2 Smith, 1 Weepu

I thought that Weepu was excellent against The Pumas.
Also Read is coming back into form and Richie's foot didn't seem to have any issues.

If the Kiwis can keep their back three fit and Cowan spends most of his time warming the bench they will be tough to beat.

For me there are two big wild cards in this game for both sides who can be either match winners or losers.
On that basis how will both Nonu and QC (Quade Cooper) play?

Hopefully rocks and diamonds; in that order

 

[Mica]

If Pocock plays like that again, Australia by 10. If Cooper plays like that again, New Zealand by 20. If they both play like that again, my head will explode from the stress.

Gold Antony - you have hit the nail on the head

 

[JimboJoe1006]

McCabe played heroically, and no doubt it was due to his injury, but he didn’t play well. JdV ran through him on at least two occasions, Nonu will do much worse. In attack, he is effective but limited. Which, for various reasons, he was not able to utilize against both SA and Ireland. With Barnes we don’t lose anything in defence and gain a new tactical approach. Furthermore, I liked that Barnes ran hard at Morne, JOC (James O'Connor) was the only other player to do the same.

In regards to QC (Quade Cooper), he is the most overrated Test player. No sure why he cannot convert his form from QLD but he simply doesn’t. Besides England I, 2010 and NZ II, 2011 I can’t ever remember him ever playing well enough for Australia to overcome his defensive frailties. Has he been Australia’s worst player so far in the World Cup!? Furthermore, SBW will probably play on the wing again, with both Mils and Dagg under injury clouds. Him running at a ‘hidden’ QC (Quade Cooper) is a scary thought.

Despite this I would still select QC (Quade Cooper) at 10. Although, I wouldn’t be afraid to yank his off in the first-half if he plays like did against SA though, or if NZ are exposing him like in England III last year. Slot Barnes in at 12, and leave the rest unchanged. If Beale is not fit: JOC (James O'Connor) to 15, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) to 14 and Horne to 13.

However with whatever XV Deans decides on, he must bring a pragmatic approach with will allow him to switch things up if they are not working. I watched the Ireland and SA game with a crazy-haired German bloke and he remarked that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.

 

[Mica]

How is Cruden's defence poor? He's a small guy, but he has loads of courage and decent technique. He might struggle to bring down a Samo, but I can't see him being any more troubled by McCabe/AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)/Beale than any of our other 5/8 options would have been.

And I think his kicking game is quite good now. It's improved hugely since last year.

My only concern with his game is his obsession with the offload. I can just see a Mortlock-esque intercept snatching away the game.

Agree Antony - Besides poor defensive first fives get hidden at fullback

 

[Braveheart81]

McCabe played heroically, and no doubt it was due to his injury, but he didn’t play well. JdV ran through him on at least two occasions, Nonu will do much worse. In attack, he is effective but limited. Which, for various reasons, he was not able to utilize against both SA and Ireland. With Barnes we don’t lose anything in defence and gain a new tactical approach. Furthermore, I liked that Barnes ran hard at Morne, JOC (James O'Connor) was the only other player to do the same.

I think you are being harsh on McCabe here. About two minutes after JdV ran through him at the start of the game, he provided the offload for Horwill to score. I'd say that more than balanced the ledger.

 

[jollyswagman]

You don't want Cooper defending at 12 though.

It would probably be safer to have McCabe with no shoulders in that instance.

I don't think Scotty was suggesting Cooper defend at 10 by any stretch Slim - just when we have the ball on attack. IMO, Cooper should be defending the set pieces on the blindside wing position where he is less likely to have to be fielding any high balls. Cooper has an obsession with throwing the inside ball back toward the ruck at the moment - probably since he had so much success with it against the Italians in the first round. But since then he has persisted to through it and it is not working. Cooper is at his best when he is running at the line but wider on a semi-crab-like run looking for his support player. Barnes in the traditional first receiver role at the set pieces role would be great as I think it would take some pressure off Genia and hopefully curtail his continual ineffective box kicking. I am the only one who thinks someone needs to have a world to Genia about his box kicking? For fuck sake, continually and ineffectively kicking the ball away. It rarely travels more than 20m behind the ruck and with the players that will be fielding it next week most likely being Kahui, Jane & Guilford, we are most likely going to be punished. Genia is kicking about 10 times each match they are all generally "blind" kicks - just sticking it up high and hoping for the best. Kicking from behind the ruck does not allow him assess the defense and figure out the best place to kick. He needs to be able to shovel it to his 5/8th and let him put the ball WAAAAYYYY down the paddock in a more traditional positional kicking sense. Box kicking is not part of a good tactical or positional kicking game. For me it was astonishing that we managed to win last night without an effective positional kicking game - no ball, no lineout, no 5/8th - just sheer bloody minded tackling. If I remember rightly, it was Barnes who kicked that ball down the paddock and into touch that got us down that end for one of the few times in the match and led to the O'Connor penalty that put us back in front. I think it was the one and only "great kick" of the match by the Aussies.

 

[Slim 293]

I don't think McCabe's tackles were quite as 'dominant' due to his shoulder, and that could've contributed to JDV's break but you have to give credit to JDV because that was a beautiful run he made.

But McCabe was making all his tackles after that, and probably would've finished with a figure closer to Pocock's if he had've played the full 80mins.

If he is declared fit to play he'll be important in shutting down Nonu.

 

[JimboJoe1006]

I think you are being harsh on McCabe here. About two minutes after JdV ran through him at the start of the game, he provided the offload for Horwill to score. I'd say that more than balanced the ledger.

I understand what your saying, but at this very high level, he should be expected to give those passes and make those tackles. He is a terrific player and has played well against NZ this year. Although, partly due to his injury and partly due to QC (Quade Cooper)'s performances, I believe BB should start.

 

[Braveheart81]

Of course he's expected to make those tackles. Holding him to a standard that no one achieves is a bit rough though. I am a massive Barnes fan and was champing at the bit throughout the last week for him to be picked at 12.

Saying anything other than the fact that McCabe had an excellent game and was in our top 5 players seems pretty unrealistic to me.

 

[vikingbrad]

Slade and Mils out for the All Blacks

ABs call up Hosea Gear & The Duck!

http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/10/10/all-blacks-call-in-donald-and-gear-for-slade-muliaina/

 

[RedsHappy]

If McCabe and Beale are fit, Deans will stick with the same 22 as in Wellington....

Maybe, maybe not. This is now potentially the crowning moment for Deans, in every sense. If the team can beat the ABs on Oct 16, the Wallabies are likely to win the RWC, and Deans' multiple home and abroad vindications will be immense, even with just an SF win vs this opposition in this place.

I am of the view that the sustained Kiwi vitriol from multiple angles re QC (Quade Cooper) has worked, destructively (and, more gently, how must it help to see your dear Kiwi parents saying on NZ TV that they kinda would have loved to see him play for the ABs). QC (Quade Cooper) has faced up in big games before, he is not doing so now. If he plays even remotely like he did yesterday, or even 50% better, the Walls will surely lose vs the ABs. You cannot beat these ABs with their scintillating and exceptionally well-coached backs with a shadow of an opposing 10, routinely anxious and fumbling. The negative crowd heat vs QC (Quade Cooper) will also be overwhelming, far worse than in Wellington. It cannot be a sound bet that he'll recover his composure, vision and self-confidence just as it's an SF vs the ABs, if it was that simple he'd have largely recovered it in a (NZ) neutral game like yesterday's; instead he was at his worst-ever in Tests.

So, IMO, for Deans these next days, he has another Elsom-as-captain moment, though with less time and space for dealing with it. I feel confident he'll very, very carefully weigh up his famous 'loyalty' doctrine with a more pragmatic view that having BB run on at 10 and bringing QC (Quade Cooper) on after say 50-60 mins (or earlier, subject to BB's performance and the team's) could give the team a far bigger chance of victory. Betting on a miraculous QC (Quade Cooper) recovery is now very high risk, at this crucial moment at destiny's forge.

So, just as he (admirably) did with Horwill's elevation, he may well do again with a form of demotion of QC (Quade Cooper), and I think that, based upon all the material facts, he'd be smart to do so in this situation, with these stakes. And I'm an avowed supporter of QC (Quade Cooper), btw, I really respect and believe in the bloke. But, sadly, something has crumbled inside him. (The other indirect consideration from Deans, and I think he has this in him, is that a bad loss to the ABs with QC (Quade Cooper) at the centre of it could conceivably damage QC (Quade Cooper)'s self-confidence in seriously deep ways, and potentially lose him to himself and rugby as a result.)

 

[GC]

Wouldn't be suprised if Horne is selected if McCabe is injured. Deans kept him around for a reason. Barnes will be on the reserve bench again.

 

[Scotty]

You don't want Cooper defending at 12 though.

It would probably be safer to have McCabe with no shoulders in that instance.

I agree, most definitely not. We would still have to hide him.

 

[SaderCheif]

slade and mils out for the all blacks

abs call up hosea gear & the duck!

http://www.theroar.com.au/2011/10/10/all-blacks-call-in-donald-and-gear-for-slade-muliaina/

for the love of god! Not donald!

 

[chriscullen]

I'm stunned that it's got to the stage Donald is back in the team, surely the most maligned All Black in the last decade. Wonder who's next? Tony Brown?

 

[Jnor]

I'll plead ignorance here, is Duck only maligned because of Honkers last year? I can't recall any performances before that were as widely or harshly criticised.

Surely he'll be ready to play out of skin in any case, should he get on.

 

[Scotty]

I don't think Scotty was suggesting Cooper defend at 10 by any stretch Slim - just when we have the ball on attack. IMO, Cooper should be defending the set pieces on the blindside wing position where he is less likely to have to be fielding any high balls. Cooper has an obsession with throwing the inside ball back toward the ruck at the moment - probably since he had so much success with it against the Italians in the first round. But since then he has persisted to through it and it is not working. Cooper is at his best when he is running at the line but wider on a semi-crab-like run looking for his support player. Barnes in the traditional first receiver role at the set pieces role would be great as I think it would take some pressure off Genia and hopefully curtail his continual ineffective box kicking. I am the only one who thinks someone needs to have a world to Genia about his box kicking? For fuck sake, continually and ineffectively kicking the ball away. It rarely travels more than 20m behind the ruck and with the players that will be fielding it next week most likely being Kahui, Jane & Guilford, we are most likely going to be punished. Genia is kicking about 10 times each match they are all generally "blind" kicks - just sticking it up high and hoping for the best. Kicking from behind the ruck does not allow him assess the defense and figure out the best place to kick. He needs to be able to shovel it to his 5/8th and let him put the ball WAAAAYYYY down the paddock in a more traditional positional kicking sense. Box kicking is not part of a good tactical or positional kicking game. For me it was astonishing that we managed to win last night without an effective positional kicking game - no ball, no lineout, no 5/8th - just sheer bloody minded tackling. If I remember rightly, it was Barnes who kicked that ball down the paddock and into touch that got us down that end for one of the few times in the match and led to the O'Connor penalty that put us back in front. I think it was the one and only "great kick" of the match by the Aussies.

There was another great kick. It was Cooper's that led to our try.

One thing I have noticed about Cooper is he always chases his kicks to put pressure on the opposition, and is normally either first or second support player to any break. It is one string to his bow that he doesn't get credit for (pretty simple thing, but a lot of other flyhalfs don't work so hard off the ball).

 

[Braveheart81]

I'll plead ignorance here, is Duck only maligned because of Honkers last year? I can't recall any performances before that were as widely or harshly criticised.

Surely he'll be ready to play out of skin in any case, should he get on.

I think he is an incredible player at ITM Cup level but gets sorely found out at test level. His entire test career has been fairly average in my opinion. Not just the Hong Kong Bledisloe.

 

[chriscullen]

The All Black back line has a distinct Hurricanes feel about it now, weepu, cruden, Nonu, smith, Jane, Gear.

 

[Slim 293]

When do we find out about the referee appointments?

Hopefully we get Wayne Barnes, and not Craig Joubert.

I'm sure the AB supporters will be wishing for the opposite.