Reds v. Force Super Rugby Round 6 2012

[tallboy]

I couldn't post a comment last night, my hands were shaking with delirium after watching both of my teams (Force and the Mighty Eels) notch up wins.

The big thing for me in watching the Forces win last night was the enthusiasm and ruthlessness. People have been talking a lot of the Reds injury woes (which are substantial) but the Force have historically failed to put away those weakened or perceived lesser teams. Last weeks game against the Rebels the perfect example.
Last night though they showed intent from the kick off. They out muscled and out enthused the Reds forwards, which was picked from a near full roster. Even after Vans try when there was the thought the Reds could get back in the contest, they just applied more pressure and put together some really good tries in response.
I just loved watching the Force get into the game and "take" the win as opposed to hoping it would come to them.

On a side note, Gill and Schatz have big futures but I loved seeing Pocock and Hodgson give them a free lesson.

 

[#1 Tah]

NSW shoot themselves in the foot yet again by requesting to play reds in rd 1.

 

[RedsHappy]

i am now wondering if Sanchez is capable of great games without QC (Quade Cooper). Maybe QC (Quade Cooper) is even better than we thought and he allows a less than great 9 look impressive.

You may have a point, whatever, those two conjoined in both 2010 and 2011 were the most beautiful case in football of 2 + 2 = 7.

But turning to Genia alone, don't forget how many times in both above years Genia would, for example, snipe brilliantly off the ruck leading to either his own try, or someone else's. And the winning long-worked try through multiple Cru defenders on July 9. And so forth, no QC (Quade Cooper) needed in these cases.

His talent and self confidence are going down at a nice steady rate along with that of the current Reds.

There is something badly wrong with this whole team's mindset and motivation, and, without that, nothing good will come. The only question is why is it so.

 

[#1 Tah]

There is something badly wrong with this whole team's mindset and motivation, and, without that, nothing good will come. The only question is why is it so.

My theory is that after winning the title, they have forgotten that it actually takes work to win a game. They pull the jersey on and they think it will be all runaway tries and dougie-ing, with nothing inbetween.

 

[Country Kid]

Turning Points

In the Reds - Sharks game two weeks ago, the Reds were going brilliantly for the 1st 30 minutes. Through dominant, smart, intense play they led 14-0 and the sharks were really down for the count.

The Reds were awarded a penalty and duely kicked it to lead 17-0. At the time I figured it was the wrong decision and viewed it as a turning point in the match - now with the benefit of hindsight it now looks like a much bigger turning point.

The Reds had their foot in throat of the Sharks at that stage of the match (around 30 minutes). The penalty to the Reds gave them the option to keep the Sharks defending inside their 22 and I reckon that was the last thing the Sharks would have wanted to do. The Reds decision kick the penalty gave the Sharks a good breather, allowed them to regroup, allowed them territory in the Reds half (from the kick off) and and within a few minutes the Sharks were on the score board - a major shift in the games momentum away from the Reds to the Sharks.

I know there are plenty of times when the penalty kick is the right option, the default option. But really there should be some proper analysis of this.

What are the odds of kicking the penalty (range might be 0.6 - 0.8)?

What are the odds that the opposing team will score against you after the ensuing kick off (it could be as high as 0.5)?

To use a tennis term, a service break is not a service break until you hold your own serve - similarly a penalty goal may be immediately negated if the opposing team kick a penalty within five minutes (and that happens a lot).

Entering into the world of speculation....

Had the Reds opted to kick for the line when 14-0 up against the Sharks, then the odds of them really demoralising the Sharks were pretty good: about 0.6 - 0.7 IMHO; and the odds of the Reds scoring a try I reckon would have been around 0.5 - and with a chance to lead 19-0 or 21-0 at half time; and a good chance to not only win the game but also pick up a four-try bonus point.

So for me the odds and the game dynamics really 'demanded' that the Reds opt to kick for the line (or scrum it) - rather than kick for penalty.

Had such a scenario or something similar we would be looking at a much different Reds outfit today because their mindset going into the Bulls game would have been way different and ditto for the Force game.

 

[Brumbies Guy]

But turning to Genia alone, don't forget how many times in both above years Genia would, for example, snipe brilliantly off the ruck leading to either his own try, or someone else's. And the winning long-worked try through multiple Cru defenders on July 9. And so forth, no QC (Quade Cooper) needed in these cases.

I wouldn't underestimate QC (Quade Cooper)'s part in this either. Defenders and backrows in particular would obviously focus on the danger of QC (Quade Cooper) in attack, the second there was space from them rushing across from the ruck, having them second guess or plant their feet and Genia was through. There isn't that presence or attacking danger anymore which allows Genia that extra space.

 

[fatprop]

Genia is less effective because his pigs are getting smacked about, he is getting slower, shittier ball and as such is under a shed load more pressure

 

[Schadenfreude]

Turning Points

In the Reds - Sharks game two weeks ago, the Reds were going brilliantly for the 1st 30 minutes. Through dominant, smart, intense play they led 14-0 and the sharks were really down for the count.

The Reds were awarded a penalty and duely kicked it to lead 17-0. At the time I figured it was the wrong decision and viewed it as a turning point in the match - now with the benefit of hindsight it now looks like a much bigger turning point.

The Reds had their foot in throat of the Sharks at that stage of the match (around 30 minutes). The penalty to the Reds gave them the option to keep the Sharks defending inside their 22 and I reckon that was the last thing the Sharks would have wanted to do. The Reds decision kick the penalty gave the Sharks a good breather, allowed them to regroup, allowed them territory in the Reds half (from the kick off) and and within a few minutes the Sharks were on the score board - a major shift in the games momentum away from the Reds to the Sharks.

I know there are plenty of times when the penalty kick is the right option, the default option. But really there should be some proper analysis of this.

What are the odds of kicking the penalty (range might be 0.6 - 0.8)?

What are the odds that the opposing team will score against you after the ensuing kick off (it could be as high as 0.5)?

To use a tennis term, a service break is not a service break until you hold your own serve - similarly a penalty goal may be immediately negated if the opposing team kick a penalty within five minutes (and that happens a lot).

Entering into the world of speculation....

Had the Reds opted to kick for the line when 14-0 up against the Sharks, then the odds of them really demoralising the Sharks were pretty good: about 0.6 - 0.7 IMHO; and the odds of the Reds scoring a try I reckon would have been around 0.5 - and with a chance to lead 19-0 or 21-0 at half time; and a good chance to not only win the game but also pick up a four-try bonus point.

So for me the odds and the game dynamics really 'demanded' that the Reds opt to kick for the line (or scrum it) - rather than kick for penalty.

Had such a scenario or something similar we would be looking at a much different Reds outfit today because their mindset going into the Bulls game would have been way different and ditto for the Force game.

Maybe the worst analysis of all time?

This is up there with "Cooper is going to have trouble getting his 10 jersey back" and "over the top lads".

 

[Newter]

I couldn't post a comment last night, my hands were shaking with delirium after watching both of my teams (Force and the Mighty Eels) notch up wins.

The big thing for me in watching the Forces win last night was the enthusiasm and ruthlessness. People have been talking a lot of the Reds injury woes (which are substantial) but the Force have historically failed to put away those weakened or perceived lesser teams. Last weeks game against the Rebels the perfect example.
Last night though they showed intent from the kick off. They out muscled and out enthused the Reds forwards, which was picked from a near full roster. Even after Vans try when there was the thought the Reds could get back in the contest, they just applied more pressure and put together some really good tries in response.
I just loved watching the Force get into the game and "take" the win as opposed to hoping it would come to them.

On a side note, Gill and Schatz have big futures but I loved seeing Pocock and Hodgson give them a free lesson.

Truth be told the Force have been outmuscling and outenthusing virtually all opponents this season. All they had to do was tweak their defence and the wins would start to flow.

 

[Newter]

Etc. The injuries are no explanation for all this. Rarely has a top team deteriorated so quickly in terms of hardness of team mind and overall skill level from a Final in July 2011, to a rambling mediocrity in March 2012 and one that represents a scary echo of the worst Reds' teams' culture and playing output of 2008-9.
.

World Cup hangover? Horwill, Genia, Simmons, Samo....they're all well down on their best.

Add in the extra burden of carrying the team without the cheap points that Quade and Digby routinely gave the side, and you've got a recipe for rapid mental burnout.

 

[RuckinGoodStats]

So I need some help. The Force v Reds game TV feed dropped out for all of Australia and only came back when Force scored from a poor Murphy grubber kick. However I need to find that missing 5 minutes of the start so I can code it.

Can anyone suggest where I can either listen to a radio recording as radio are at the ground and don't need a TV feed? Help. I do realise that this will mean Gaggar will continue his stats epic writing, but it can't be all bad.

Serious and help would be appeciated

 

[Dan54]

World Cup hangover? Horwill, Genia, Simmons, Samo....they're all well down on their best.

Add in the extra burden of carrying the team without the cheap points that Quade and Digby routinely gave the side, and you've got a recipe for rapid mental burnout.

I wonder about the WC hangover too Newt, could it be why teams that carry a lot of WC players are all a little below their perceived best?? ie; Crusaders, Akld Blues , Tahs etc? Not saying it is but certainly food for thought.

 

[qwerty51]

World Cup hangover? Horwill, Genia, Simmons, Samo....they're all well down on their best.

Add in the extra burden of carrying the team without the cheap points that Quade and Digby routinely gave the side, and you've got a recipe for rapid mental burnout.

Please... this year tells you more about last year. Overhyped players.

 

[Penguin]

No Qwerty, you sad little troll. Not over hyped by any means, the past two years have shown they can produce the goods.... this year they are under achieving. Now get back in your box!


Well done Force & to Waylan, it's a nice feeling when dreams come true, enjoy it while it lasts

 

[spectator]

Bloody hell, that was very painful to watch as a Reds supporter! Agree with others, the problem is with the pack, five or six wallabies yet monstered two weeks in a row. Plenty of work to do before Good Friday that's for sure.

Well done Force.

 

[barbarian]

So I need some help. The Force v Reds game TV feed dropped out for all of Australia and only came back when Force scored from a poor Murphy grubber kick. However I need to find that missing 5 minutes of the start so I can code it.

Can anyone suggest where I can either listen to a radio recording as radio are at the ground and don't need a TV feed? Help. I do realise that this will mean Gaggar will continue his stats epic writing, but it can't be all bad.

Serious and help would be appeciated

Maybe try grandstand digital radio? They always have guys at Tahs games.

 

[No4918]

Just don't see the point of bringing in players like Murphy & Rapana to not use them. Horan suggested that Murphy had been told to just distribute, and how many times did Rapana get his hands on it on attack. We should be expecting these blokes to back themselves and be good enough, not trying to cover them. From reports Murphy is the next closest 10 to Cooper with his skill set and type of play, let him play like that. Couldn't have done any worse and would take pressure off Genia to come up with all the play.

I've said it before and will likely again 2 or 3 times before this friday - if Finger is not back i would like to see Morahan or Shipps into 13 to get more involved and with Toua back fit i hope Link does something like this.

Anyway, well done Force. They came switched on and did not give the Reds a chance, they could have really played the Reds back into some form if they put in a 'typical' Force showing but they lifted and put us away.

 

[Schadenfreude]

Please... this year tells you more about last year. Overhyped players.

Yeah the Tahs don't have that problem...

 

[RedsHappy]

Please... this year tells you more about last year. Overhyped players.

q51, would you be disposed to agree that there is in this rugby universe of ours, a powerful 'fan' class that might be termed 'the anti-team and anti-fan fan'. That is, for this group, their complete satisfaction in the downfall of a team (and that team's fans) is almost, or is in fact, a greater passion than the positive achievements of any team.

Kind of like matter and anti-matter in fundamental physics, if you get my gist.

 

[spectator]

OK what were the positives? As someone said there are probably only three or four players who can hold their heads high.

Shipperley has been the Reds best player YTD and he was again one of the best on ground last night. Despite the Team not travelling well he is playing with confidence and can now be well and truly considered the starting right winger in a full strength side. Tapuai has also been solid but has had too much to do.

Higgers has been the pick of the forwards but really needs support. Slipper has impressed and with Holmes as a front row partner, and Hansen as hooker that is a solid area for the Reds. Chibba does need a bit more accuracy in the lineout though.