Reds 2018

[Zero_Cool]

Around 40% of the U20's Wallabies Squad (again) coming from Queensland.

2018 Junior Wallabies extended Squad


Forwards
Charlie Hancock, ACT, Prop
Tom Ross, ACT, Prop
Darcy Breen, NSW, Prop
Patrick Tafa, NSW, Backrow
George Francis, NSW, Prop
Ben Grant, NSW, Lock
Josh Kemeny, NSW, Backrow
Sama Malolo, VIC, hooker
Hugh Margin, NSW, LockRory Sutor, NSW, Backrow
Ben Grant, NSW, Lock
Angus Blyth, QLD, Lock - Bond University
Matt Faessler, QLD, Hooker - Brothers
Lloyd Gorman, QLD, Prop - Sunnybank
Harry Hockings, QLD, Lock - University of Queensland
Harry Hoopert, QLD, Prop - Brothers
Tom Kibble, QLD, Backrow - GPS
Efi Ma'afu, QLD, Hooker - Wests
Tipane Mavoa, QLD, Backrow - Bond University
Josh Nasser, QLD, Prop - University of Queensland
Laurence Tominiko, QLD, Prop - SunnybankEsei Ha'angana, VIC, Backrow
Trevor Hosea, VIC, Lock
Carlo Tizzano, WA, Flanker


Backs

Lawson Creighton, QLD, Fullback - Brothers
Mack Hansen, ACT, Fullback
Len Ikitau, ACT, Centre
Isiah Latu, ACT, Centre
Ryan Lonergan, ACT, Scrumhalf
Tom Osborne, NSW, Fullback
Tom Fuller, NSW, Centre
Will Harrison, NSW, Flyhalf
Yirribi Jaffer-Williams, NSW, Wing
Bayley Kuenzle, NSW, Flyhalf
Jordan Morris, NSW, Centre
James Ramm, NSW, Wing
Nick Wilkinson, NSW, Centre
HaydenSargeant, QLD, Wing - Bond University
Isaac Lucas, QLD, flyhalf - Sunnybank
Tate McDermott, QLD, Scrumhalf - University of Queensland
Jordan Petaia, QLD, Centre - Wests
Harrison Goddard, VIC, Scrumhalf
Semisi Tupou, VIC, Fullback

Reds Players underlined
Queensland players in Bold
Queensland links in italics

 

[Jets]

No Hamish Stewart??? I wonder why.

 

[Lemno01]

Thanks for the list. There are also a few others, listed in other states, that at least went to school in QLD (Ikitau and Hosea to start)

 

[Zero_Cool]

No Hamish Stewart??? I wonder why.

Yeah, that is curious. Maybe Thorn wants to keep him playing Super instead. He was one of the best players in the U20's tournament last year so I can't imagine they wouldn't have him someone in the 40 man squad if he wanted in. Perese also isn't in the squad, that would support the idea that the Reds might want to hang on to those two Edit: Perese is 21 opps. The Reds forwards plus McDermott are fairly replaceable. (Although I'm sure if there is an injury to one of our three other locks that might change, who's kicking around in the club second row -- that might be as good as Hockings & Blyth?)

Also apparently Isaac Lucas has a fair bit of hype around him, I don't know too much about the other fly halves.

Thanks for the list. There are also a few others, listed in other states, that at least went to school in QLD (Ikitau and Hosea to start)

Thank's I've updated the list to reflect this.

 

[bloodred]

Reg, I don't doubt that for a moment. Probably, what I meant to convey would have been better expressed as coming to notice of fans outside of Brisbane.

Actually you not correct there, he was playing with a very good mate of mine at Sunnybank and was picked in the East Coast Aces team in the ARC. He played with another mate of mine Ben Mowen (Captain). Lucas played (ahead of Quade ) at 10 for the most of the season until he was suspended for a tip tackle. I was living on the Coast at the time and went to all home games

 

[Brumby Runner]

My memory is perhaps fading, but I would have sworn he played No 9 in most of the games that year. I remember forming the opinion that he and Higgers were outstanding in the ARC.

 

[RugbyReg]

My memory is perhaps fading, but I would have sworn he played No 9 in most of the games that year. I remember forming the opinion that he and Higgers were outstanding in the ARC.

I reckon Nick Berry played 9 most of it?

Here's the squad from the Reds annual report. Can't see any other 10 options knowing QC (Quade Cooper) played largely off the bench.

Oh and here's a match preview to one game where Lucas is specified as the 10.

http://twf.com.au/showthread.php?t=9334

 

[TOCC]

Nic Berry and Curtis Franks shared the no.9 jersey for the East Coast Aces. Ben Lucas, Andrew Walker and Quade Cooper all shared the 10 jersey, with Lucas been the preferred 10

 

[Zero_Cool]

So Reds are in the top 6! However we have the worst for and against of the two win teams.

Is this too high, where will we end up?

 

[Scrubber2050]

So Reds are in the top 6! However we have the worst for and against of the two win teams.

Is this too high, where will we end up?

Interesting question Zero.

Think I'll wait until we play some Kiwi teams and the end of this overseas stint,

To me, one of our troubles is the difficulty in us scoring 5 pointers

 

[Jets]

So Reds are in the top 6! However we have the worst for and against of the two win teams.

Is this too high, where will we end up?

With all of the Kiwi teams having their byes early the table is a bit misleading. It is good to see we are up there but things will change.

Also I actually think we are a good shot against the Jags this weekend. Our style of play will not suit them unless they getearly points. They don't seem like a team that wants to work hard.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Interesting question Zero.

Think I'll wait until we play some Kiwi teams and the end of this overseas stint,

To me, one of our troubles is the difficulty in us scoring 5 pointers

I do agree the Kiwis are always a good litmus test, this tour will probably tell us if we are contenders or pretenders (for finals not winning the comp).

Regarding our inability to score 5 pointers, I don't think it's an inability to cross the line. Tupou in particular is still in that 'under 12's' mode where you run at people and think you've just gotta get over the line and the job is done.
Mind you I don't recall seeing any player with as much physical tallent as Tupou, if he can start playing like an adult he could be one of the best props in World Rugby, his physical ability would put him among the best props of all time!

I think the real difficulty is with our backline, for whatever reason (I think it's Lance stalling the attack when he's touching the ball, despite individually playing well), Kerevi at 12 will help alleviate some of that, pending form Paia'aua in that 13 -- Crotty type role could be an option to look at to get more from our backline.

With all of the Kiwi teams having their byes early the table is a bit misleading. It is good to see we are up there but things will change.

I do prefer it when they give two points for a byes just so you don't get that distortion in the ladder, mind you it's only really the Highlanders in the top 8 who have had their bye already, along with the Chiefs who are a 1 win team. Interestingly the Lions should be a little further down given they have played 4 games are are only matching the Rebels 15 points (I'm quite sure the Rebels won't last, they still haven't been tested).

Also I actually think we are a good shot against the Jags this weekend. Our style of play will not suit them unless they get early points. They don't seem like a team that wants to work hard.

Regarding this weekend I think there is a risk our forwards are a little too slow compared to the Jags (particularly coming off so much travel), the Waratahs have a very loosey goosey pack and were given the runaround but they felt like they just weren't playing so it's hard to tell. But you are spot on, if we can turn it into a grind we have a good chance.

I also think we will need to make a lot more use of our bench than we have in the past few games, particularly with Tupou he's good and I am sure he can do it but it's a long season -- we don't want him playing 75 min a game every week, and Toua, Lance and Nabuli -- they haven't come off yet that I can think of. And we've gotta see Paia'aua you can't have a guy who was literally our best player last year sitting on the bench for 80 min, tell whoever it is you are likely to take off for Paia'aua they are probably coming off at 60 and to give it everything so they can get fresh legs on. Expecting any player to play the full 80 with this much travel is crazy, doing it when you actually have depth at your disposal is insane! (Plus I want to see Paia'aua carve up against some tired defenders with 20 to go.)

 

[Jets]

Our team are young and enthusiastic, the travel and workload wont be an issue just yet. The last couple of weeks will have built up a lot of belief in these guys.

 

[dru]

To make the finals, on the table we have to beat 7 teams. have a shot at it:
Sunwolves
Jaguares
Waratahs
Brumbies
Bulls

After that?

We have a lot of away games coming. I dont think Argentina is high on the list for the away game bogie - it's still early and the boys are primed. They have to win the game, but I just dont think that the travel is a big an issue yet. Stormers though is a tough ask (in terms of travel).

 

[liquor box]

To make the finals, on the table we have to beat 7 teams. have a shot at it:
Sunwolves
Jaguares
Waratahs
Brumbies
Bulls

After that?

We have a lot of away games coming. I dont think Argentina is high on the list for the away game bogie - it's still early and the boys are primed. They have to win the game, but I just dont think that the travel is a big an issue yet. Stormers though is a tough ask (in terms of travel).

Is that to get a "bonus" spot or the direct route to the finals?

The thing I like about conference systems is that you can try to pick what is required to make the finals.

Win every game at home is the starting point.
Win one game in SA and NZ tours and then you force the other teams in the conference to win both games away from Australia.

We dont have to win every week, just be better than the other teams in our conference.

At the moment we need to win one game in the SA tour, this puts us half a game ahead of NSW.

Winning in Melbourne will be our biggest challenge.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Is that to get a "bonus" spot or the direct route to the finals?

The thing I like about conference systems is that you can try to pick what is required to make the finals.

Win every game at home is the starting point.
Win one game in SA and NZ tours and then you force the other teams in the conference to win both games away from Australia.

We dont have to win every week, just be better than the other teams in our conference.

At the moment we need to win one game in the SA tour, this puts us half a game ahead of NSW.

Winning in Melbourne will be our biggest challenge.

Good Post.
"Winning in Melbourne will be our biggest challenge" but it is quite possible if 3 things happen:
1. Shut Genia out of the game
2. We keep 15 blokes on the paddock for the whole game
3. Reds maintain scrum dominance

 

[Jets]

We don't have to win in Melbourne, we lost there is round 2 so it's not possible. We play the Rebels at home in July, a lot can happen between now and then.

 

[Ignoto]

Geeez guys, finals talks after 2 wins! You guys are setting yourself up for some heartache with all that optimism.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Is that to get a "bonus" spot or the direct route to the finals?

The thing I like about conference systems is that you can try to pick what is required to make the finals.

Win every game at home is the starting point.
Win one game in SA and NZ tours and then you force the other teams in the conference to win both games away from Australia.

We dont have to win every week, just be better than the other teams in our conference.

At the moment we need to win one game in the SA tour, this puts us half a game ahead of NSW.

Winning in Melbourne will be our biggest challenge.

I'm not sure it's even that simple (read complex) for example the Brumbies had less wins than the Jaguars but had more overall points; no team even came close to the Brumbies in the losing bonus. (I actually would like to see the bonus points somehow take away from the team not getting them because too often once a loss is clear they can quickly turn into a bonus point loss because there is no penalty for the other team getting a try bonus point or a losing bonus point.)

I don't think we are going to win the conference, not by a long shot, although it is possible. I think if we play finals it'll be on merrit. Looking at last year the top teams were 14 & 1 averaging about 4.5 points a game, the middle teams (Brumbies, Blues & Sharks) were averaging 2 - 2.5 points a game (call it a 50% win percentage and a few bonus points).
At present we are right on pace for that 2.5 points per game, while we are yet to face any really hard teams we have faced the Bulls who beat the Hurricanes, and I think the Brumbies won't be a bad team this year (and I expect them to prove that against the Sharks, who themselves aren't a bad team).

I do agree away games are so valuable, particularly against South African teams; I'm not sure who you'd pick to play in South Africa other than Jaguars and Stormers (maybe swap the Jags for Bulls because travel).
Another thing I'd like to say is I don't think the Sunwolves are quite the joke a lot of people are taking them for, they have over 9000 injuries right now, and a team like them isn't going to have the depth like we at the Reds or someone like the Crusaders have, so expect a few upsets!

If I had to guess, I would expect the lowest scoring team to make finals will be around 40 points, last years raw cut off would have been the Blues with 37, and the actual cut off was the Brumbies with 34. But this year we are proportionally taking more teams (around 55%), we play an extra game, there aren't any really easy beats this year, and there aren't any more easy conferences in addition to only 3 conference winners getting a cushy ride.

 

[Zero_Cool]

Geeez guys, finals talks after 2 wins! You guys are setting yourself up for some heartache with all that optimism.

Hey, finals isn't all that hard this year.

• 2 SA teams hosted = 2 wins (maybe not the Lions)
• Win Home Conference Games = 4 wins
• Win 1/2 away conference games = 2 wins (likely 3 to make up for Lions)
• That's 32 points right there.

Add in 1 of two on this tour, and a few bonus points, maybe a cheeky win against the Blues, we could easily make 40+ points. I'm not saying I expect it but it's very achievable for a rebuilding team like us or the Bulls.