So what is the general consensus of what constitutes a successful 2018 season for the reds as a team and for Thorn as coach? Is finals footy realistic? Are we watching a development team or a championship club?
So I think it's pretty clear we aren't aiming for finals this year. But to be fair the other aussie teams are quite possibly in disarray (except the Brumbies). Given that it's quite possible we finish second in the conference. It's easily possible we finish second last (surely we'll be better than someone).
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I think given the style of game we are likely to play -- defensive, tactical/teritorial kicking, and almost eternal ball retention. We aren't too likely to get beaten by much even when facing a much superior opposition, so it's easily possible every loss is a bonus point loss.>
We do still have much of the core of our team from last year. Aside from Quade (maybe the two replacement props), I don't know that we've lost anyone who isn't replaced by an upgrade.
The backs is largely the same (except Stewart; Tuttle, Paia'aua, Kerevi, Perese, Nabuli, Hunt?), a couple of upgrades or improved players (Daugunu, and Lance) and one or two down grades but a really nice players (Stewart).
Again forwards as well are largely unchanged. Losing two good props but gaining Tupo and JP Smith. The emergency of Tui and Rodda (quite possible the Wallabies locking pair in the future!) more than make up for Simmons leaving; Blyth and Hockings probably would have made up for Simmons leaving. In the loose forwards losing Smith (perhaps for only half the season perhaps not) is going to be a massive blow (fuck me he put in last season!) but between Timu, Korczyk, Wright, Gunn, Scott-Young and Hewat I am quite sure they can make up the shortfall. Particularly if Timu can find his NRC form from last year.
All in all when you sit down and think about it we actually shouldn't have gotten much worse even if you assume we are missing a lot with Quade I think Stewart probably events that out with what he brings in defence. We have added a ton of depth in nearly every position. The only question mark is the new head coach and near 180 change in philosophy (although I agree with the new philosophy).
Looking at the schedule it actually isn't too bad early @Rebels game 1 before they can get any real cohesion. Then hosting the Brumbies (without Pocock) will be tough, but not impossible. Around the World in Rounds 4 and 5 will be no small feat, but the *Haguares* are always a mixed bag, and I have no idea about the Stormers but they didn't look too frightening last season. Then we have a bye in round 7 and from there any predictions go out the window. But no New Zealand teams until Round 10, even then I heard a rumor we'll play the Hurricanes and Blues not in NZ.
All in all I think Thorn is under no pressure and it's likely a lot of teams will be writing us off (the Waratahs guys today said they are glad they aren't the Reds). It's entirely possible we top the conference. Our big tests will be Rounds 8-11. 8 & ( where we are away to the Brumbies and Waratahs, then 10 & 11 we host the Chiefs and Lions; if we win 3 of those 4 games I'd say we are finals bound. Form there young teams sometimes don't know they are supposed to lose but even if they do it's a brilliant experience and they will have defied everyone's expectations.
Where can it all go wrong?
The second game against the Brumbies will be telling, if we get stampeded by the Brumbies then we'll know we probably just aren't that good. But if we at least turn that into a knock down drag out brawl (not a win but a fight) I would say we are 50/50 to play finals.
To be successful we have to out Brumbies the Brumbies, we've got to turn every loss into a losing bonus point, and we have got to win our winnable games! And to out Brumbies the Brumbies we have to turn some of those wins into Big Daddy Bonus Point Wins! All of those things are possible, the more I look at the team that it's looking like will be selected the more I think that's possible. The roster from 1 to 33 is full of players who put defence first, who work hard and who will get their hands dirty! I expect Hamish Stewart to be the epitome of this team. I fully expect they & he will stand up and play how they ~~want to~~ need to play. And he's got the potential to do that. In the NRC his defence was truly outstanding, his ball running could have him in the 13 jersey (he was a few times IIRC), his playmaking could have used a season with Quade around but isn't any worse than Jake McIntire was. I am worried that Stewart is really the linch pin for the whole team if he isn't up to Super Rugby, we are going to be in for a really really long season. He's given no indication of that, he showed in the NRC he's more than happy put his head down and do whatever the team needs him to do.
