Reds 2018

[James Pettifer]

My expectations do not match this. We wont know though, until we see a couple of games. I feel the expectations on Brad for 2018 may prove to be unrealistic. The first two months of the season are pretty rough. Winning much, new in the role, with one home game (from recollection) in roughly the first two months, may prove problematic. And by then the rot sets in. HE has a tough gig this year.

And by sacking Quade, he has made his job significantly harder. If the wins don't come quickly, then the decision to drop Quade will be questioned and he will be under much more pressure than he would have been if Quade was either part of the team or the bench. Based on how Queensland coaches tend to be treated, he could be in for a very short tenure.

 

[dru]

Slippers played only a handful of games in the past 14 months, he is back fit and healthy, but if will take a few games for him to get some form back.


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We Should then take encouragement at Tupou's scrum performance against Slipper, but be hopeful for Slipper and note that Tupou may need to continue improving.

 

[dru]

And by sacking Quade, he has made his job significantly harder. If the wins don't come quickly, then the decision to drop Quade will of a be questioned and he will be under much more pressure than he would have been if Quade was either part of the team or the bench. Based on how Queensland coaches tend to be treated, he could be in for a very short tenure.

It (the Quade sacking) also creates problems now for how Brad handles Hunt. Drop him and some will say it supports the earlier failure and that he can't handle big rep players. Keep him and others will say the "mates priority" is inconsistent with the hard man approach - my way or the high way pushing team ethos. He has managed to dampen any honeymoon period. That could return should he provide interesting rugby with a few wins.

We have of course, yet to see how the team is actually looking - though most pundits place Reds last in Aus conference, ahead of Sunwolves. Tahs ARE poor, but worse than us?

The rating would suggest opening two months as something like this: -LLW?LL-? Two games in Brisbane only in this period.

It is not much of a start for building enthusiasm with the fans. Still, win the question mark games, through in an upset, and Brad will be the mesiah.

Let's hope so. It might not however be the preseason of expectation.

 

[Zero_Cool]

It (the Quade sacking) also creates problems now for how Brad handles Hunt. Drop him and some will say it supports the earlier failure and that he can't handle big rep players. Keep him and others will say the "mates priority" is inconsistent with the hard man approach - my way or the high way pushing team ethos. He has managed to dampen any honeymoon period. That could return should he provide interesting rugby with a few wins.

We have of course, yet to see how the team is actually looking - though most pundits place Reds last in Aus conference, ahead of Sunwolves. Tahs ARE poor, but worse than us?

The rating would suggest opening two months as something like this: -LLW?LL-? Two games in Brisbane only in this period.

It is not much of a start for building enthusiasm with the fans. Still, win the question mark games, through in an upset, and Brad will be the mesiah.

Let's hope so. It might not however be the preseason of expectation.

So I'm not going to give too much away, but I've heard a few whispers that the Quade (and Hunt) issue are not coming from Thorn but someone else from within the QRU.

Regarding your prediction I wouldn't be so sure that game 1 the ~~Force~~ Rebles are going to be any good, sure they have lots of good players but we've seen countless times in rugby good players aren't everything. I do expect when we play them later in the seasom they'll be much harder to beat, but game one is a blessing!

Like I said, I'm not too optimistic, but I'm not sure why everyone thinks we're going to be completely shit, last year at this same point we were one of the most stacked sides in Super Rugby, we only really lose Quade and Frisbee (and our average head coach). Yet somehow we're on the scrap heap. I'm not trying to say we'll win super this year, but we actually should be as good as any of the other Aussie teams. And our defence first approach will tend to help us with bonus points.

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[new recruit_ brisbane]

So I'm not going to give too much away, but I've heard a few whispers that the Quade (and Hunt) issue are not coming from Thorn but someone else from within the QRU.
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I have heard differently from reliable people that Thorn has always made comments on his thoughts of Quade and Frisby - and his perceptions of their attitude, commitment and roll on affect to the squad. Once he was installed as HC he was left with no other option but to act on his previous opinions

 

[Ignoto]

Couldn’t disagree more.

Experience may come from time and scrummaging a lot but it’s useless if he isn’t getting the best guidance and mentoring possible, so what if he goes overseas to the ITM cup? He’d get more games and higher quality of game playing ITM cup than NRC

The one thing the Reds have done well in the last several years is their scrum. Whether it was Alec Evans, Link or Stiles, the Reds have had a pretty solid scrum platform with some pretty average scrumagers. Whether this transfers to Thorns Reds is to be seen, but for a Prop, the Reds environment has been one full of quality guidance and mentoring.

 

[dru]

I don't know whether it is appropriate to discuss a completely unsubstantiated rumour sourced as it is here from social media where identities are hidden. That's not a criticism of you Z-C, I'm sure you're aware as to how that sort of statement needs to be treated. At any rate, all it does is change Brad's responsibility, it does nothing regarding his public accountability. I would note though "someone in the background" would be hanging him out to dry if you are correct. The Clyne management system.

Regarding your prediction I wouldn't be so sure that game 1 the ~~Force~~ Rebles are going to be any good, sure they have lots of good players but we've seen countless times in rugby good players aren't everything. I do expect when we play them later in the seasom they'll be much harder to beat, but game one is a blessing!

Fair enough, mate. My thoughts however are diametrically opposite. Rebels have an awesome Ist XV, may match the Brumbies - will do IMO in time with Wessels. Their depth is, well, quantitively deep, but qualitively poor, ie not strong. As injuries and rotation hit I suspect we may see a drop in form and Brumbies taking over. The 1st XV will be too much for the Reds in Round 1 - unless Brad does indeed prove to be well ahead of the general view.

Something to look out for - scrum performance. Stiles has had control of the Rebels pack for not half as long as Brad has. Interesting to watch that one whether it be Slipper or Tupou at Loose and our promise in the locks vs a proven force.

Like I said, I'm not too optimistic, but I'm not sure why everyone thinks we're going to be completely shit, last year at this same point we were one of the most stacked sides in Super Rugby, we only really lose Quade and Frisbee (and our average head coach). Yet somehow we're on the scrap heap. I'm not trying to say we'll win super this year, but we actually should be as good as any of the other Aussie teams. And our defence first approach will tend to help us with bonus points.

I don't think we are going to be completely shit. I'm just trying to objectively assess our chances. We might be able to make a call on "completely shit" once we see Brad's interpretation of a defensive game plan.

Objectively we have not just a rookey HC but a bloke who is green behind the ears. THE QRU admin strengths seem to suddenly evaporated (remember how good their preseason PR used to be? The streaming and getting people involved. Awesome social media presentation for an Aus super rugby team. That seems to have gone. Evapoarted into "well once we were the best!" HQ BOH rumours are concerning.

Objectively we have a shit draw to start the season. Now that I will call "completely shit". We could not apparently arrange a decent trial when much of the rugby world was sitting at our feet for the 10s. With that rugby management nous in full flight, end of the first month we have a tour taking in Argentina and South Africa. Keystone Cops stuff just cannot be successful in that environment. Along with the Waratahs, we are the first teams in Super Rugby (as I understand things) to have to travel to ALL FIVE nations in the season "proper". Again, being objective.

Mate, if Ewan was back, and in immediate perfect form, a knowledgeable observer would be saying, "Geez Link, completely shit time to return!"

I can't express enough distaste for Brad's handling of Quade. But he's the man. Let's not harness too much expectation, because this is a tough year. Disappointment should not lead to dissatisfaction in the HC (again). He has it uphill. I am completely unimpressed with his start, but I am not going to hold him to completely unrealistic KPIs going forward.

 

[dru]

The one thing the Reds have done well in the last several years is their scrum. Whether it was Alec Evans, Link or Stiles, the Reds have had a pretty solid scrum platform with some pretty average scrumagers. Whether this transfers to Thorns Reds is to be seen, but for a Prop, the Reds environment has been one full of quality guidance and mentoring.

Or transfers to Stiles Rebels. We will know after the first game.

 

[James Pettifer]

I can't express enough distaste for Brad's handling of Quade. But he's the man. Let's not harness too much expectation, because this is a tough year. Disappointment should not lead to dissatisfaction in the HC (again). He has it uphill. I am completely unimpressed with his start, but I am not going to hold him to completely unrealistic KPIs going forward.

Normally a coach will get a couple of years to build the team, but I think by sacking a very popular player in a very public and brutal way will mean that he has put himself in the position that poor performance will result in people questioning his decision making and ability to build a team much earlier than normal. It is also quite likely that the combination of poor performance and the loss of Quade will result in lower attendance to games. I would think that anything less than 6 wins for the year would be considered a failure assuming that the Sunwolves continue at the same level of performance.

 

[emuarse]

So what is the general consensus of what constitutes a successful 2018 season for the reds as a team and for Thorn as coach? Is finals footy realistic? Are we watching a development team or a championship club?

For me, I see a pass mark as winning more games than losing. To do that, they need to win probably 66.6% of their first 9 games, when as a young side with a new coach, they might sneak in under the radar. After that, they'll be up against Kiwi sides which will be a very difficult hurdle for a young team to overcome. So everything depends on how they perform as a squad from the get go.
Not long to wait now, eh fellas/sheilas.

 

[TOCC]

I’m happy to lose games, if the Reds are competitive in the process. Problem with the past few years has been the capitulations and lack of effort displayed by some players in those losses.


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[Simon.]

Yeah I agree with TOCC, narrow losses will be encouraging. The Reds in the last couple of seasons have had a tendency to fall apart when they start losing, which has then turned into big blowouts.

I think that's something that Thorn WILL be successful in, even if he we don't see a lot of the losses turn to wins. I'm not expecting too much in terms of wins due to the youth of the squad, particularly in the try-scoring component of the backline.

Looking through the list of fixtures, 6+ wins for the season will be a solid pass mark for me (~40% win ratio), or about 30 points for the season with some BPs.

In terms of game play I will be interested to see what style of game they play. I think it'll be forward heavy and territory-based, looking to trust defence to apply pressure and win penalties and turnovers, All Blacks style. I think given the backline, they will be most dangerous on counter-attack, guys like Daugunu, Perese and even Nabuli will be most effective against an unset defence in a turnover situation.

That's basically how Qld Country played, and for a new coach like Thorn it's probably a reasonable assumption he'll stick with it. The big question is how well it will transfer across to the less open style of Super Rugby and the better defences.

 

[fatprop]

Interesting to see a couple of the amigos commenting on Quade, so far Kurtley and Digby, when can we expect Mr O'Conner to drop in?

 

[Derpus]

Yeah I agree with TOCC, narrow losses will be encouraging. The Reds in the last couple of seasons have had a tendency to fall apart when they start losing, which has then turned into big blowouts.

I think that's something that Thorn WILL be successful in, even if he we don't see a lot of the losses turn to wins. I'm not expecting too much in terms of wins due to the youth of the squad, particularly in the try-scoring component of the backline.

Looking through the list of fixtures, 6+ wins for the season will be a solid pass mark for me (~40% win ratio), or about 30 points for the season with some BPs.

In terms of game play I will be interested to see what style of game they play. I think it'll be forward heavy and territory-based, looking to trust defence to apply pressure and win penalties and turnovers, All Blacks style. I think given the backline, they will be most dangerous on counter-attack, guys like Daugunu, Perese and even Nabuli will be most effective against an unset defence in a turnover situation.

That's basically how Qld Country played, and for a new coach like Thorn it's probably a reasonable assumption he'll stick with it. The big question is how well it will transfer across to the less open style of Super Rugby and the better defences.

So like the Highlanders but without Ben Smith returning kicks.

 

[dru]

In terms of game play I will be interested to see what style of game they play. I think it'll be forward heavy and territory-based, looking to trust defence to apply pressure and win penalties and turnovers, All Blacks style. I think given the backline, they will be most dangerous on counter-attack, guys like Daugunu, Perese and even Nabuli will be most effective against an unset defence in a turnover situation.

The AB system also features :
x Ball playing forwards x a link man from the pack to the backs, quasi pig-flyhalf (Often Dan Coleman)
x Wideflankers literally playing as pack wings.p>
xx Smooth transition in pod formation from 1-3-3-1 to 2-4-2, and a couple of different version of each. Used tactically depending on position and game intent.
x Hard striking backs on turnover (Gain) and willing to risk it all immediately from pretty much anywhere on the park.
x Locks who take the gain line, a props who offload x Super rush defence
x Competency in the set piece whether they are Playing SA, England and Ireland
x Ball handling skills across the park.
x Kicking game WITH INTELLIGENCE

You could keep going. Bottom line though, yes if we can achieve even 50% of that I won't give a toss about the W/L ratio and will personally join the "Brad is the Messiah" fan club.

 

[fatprop]

The amount of Crusaders now in coaching is quite impressive

 

[Jeeper]

I seriously don’t get the love for Quade. Hasn’t had a decent game in nearly a decade. Arrogant and overrated.

I am excited to see the young lads coming through. I expect the reds to be top 2 in the Aussie conference.

 

[dru]

I seriously don’t get the love for Quade. Hasn’t had a decent game in nearly a decade. Arrogant and overrated.

I am excited to see the young lads coming through. I expect the reds to be top 2 in the Aussie conference.

10 years goes back to 2008. You miss 2011? I do see arrogant here. It's not Quade though.

 

[Zero_Cool]

I don't know whether it is appropriate to discuss a completely unsubstantiated rumour sourced as it is here from social media where identities are hidden. That's not a criticism of you Z-C, I'm sure you're aware as to how that sort of statement needs to be treated. At any rate, all it does is change Brad's responsibility, it does nothing regarding his public accountability. I would note though "someone in the background" would be hanging him out to dry if you are correct. The Clyne management system.

I wasn't trying to push some misinformation or agenda just putting the information I am privy to that most all aren't out there.

Fair enough, mate. My thoughts however are diametrically opposite. Rebels have an awesome Ist XV, may match the Brumbies - will do IMO in time with Wessels. Their depth is, well, quantitively deep, but qualitively poor, ie not strong. As injuries and rotation hit I suspect we may see a drop in form and Brumbies taking over. The 1st XV will be too much for the Reds in Round 1 - unless Brad does indeed prove to be well ahead of the general view.

Regarding Melbourne round one, I think the Rebels will be underdone they have only had since September with their new coach and less with some of their players; regardless they have to in effect integrate two teams into one. I think round 3 to 6 is where they'll really be hitting their straps. But I do expect they'll have a bit of a drop off as they have injuries etc are taking its toll.

I can't express enough distaste for Brad's handling of Quade. But he's the man. Let's not harness too much expectation, because this is a tough year. Disappointment should not lead to dissatisfaction in the HC (again). He has it uphill. I am completely unimpressed with his start, but I am not going to hold him to completely unrealistic KPIs going forward.

To be totally honest I think the front office has been handling things pretty poorly. How much of that is Thorn and how much of that is some other change to the front office or something else. I'm not a massive fan of the Quade situation, it boggles my mind how you could have someone like that not at least in the Squad. But like I said previously that may not entirely be Thorn; even if we reject my information we don't **know** that isn't the case.

At this point I am not ready to form an opinion of Thorn, from what I saw in the NRC he looked to be doing a good job and steering the ship well. If that translates into Super Rugby I don't know.
Edit: Also formatting turned out better than expected!

 

[dru]

At this point I am not ready to form an opinion of Thorn, from what I saw in the NRC he looked to be doing a good job and steering the ship well. If that translates into Super Rugby I don't know.
Edit: Also formatting turned out better than expected!

I don"t think we have a choice. He is the Reds HC. I'd like to think it is the true fans here. We will have an opinion, can't help not to. It's natural.

Personally I hit nadir at the Reds, probably at the second last year of Dick. It hasn't gotten any better since, including with Brad in 2018. I did not spend any money on the Reds last season. Wont this one either.

But Brad is what we've got. Personally I think we are entitled to skin him alive over Quade. Ditto HQ on losing LFG, and the treatment of Quade in Round 1. And Simmo last year.

But Brad is the HQ we've got. For me it's not something to be enthusiastic about. But he is the bloke. He'll need 5 years in my mind. What we get in 2018 is irrelevant. We just have to live through it.