Reds 2015

[hammertimethere]

I love how you are able to say Lucas was "discarded" without considering that with his experience he very likely commanded, and possibly asked for a contract which no team could afford to pay a player who would potentially not even make the 23 if all are fit.

How much is he on in France? Would he have stayed here for around $100,000 a season? Because that's really all the reds could afford to offer him. Between JOC (James O'Connor), Hunt and Quade, his two most played positions were well covered by players who were perceived to be in the first choice starting 15 and rightly not expected to drop out of that due to lack of form.

That leaves injuries as the only way for Lucas to make the team.

How can you honestly afford to pay significant money for that player

How many successful teams have quality back up at 10 when they already have an experienced 10?

And how many of those quality back ups don't command a starting spot in another position?

The Reds have made a number of errors in coaching. You just sit here and poke holes in everything from a position of hindsight, without ever considering the realities which they faced when making many of these decisions.

If you honestly believe that in 2014, that you would have prioritised retaining Lucas and Harris, by logic of retaining cover in one of your most stable positions, versus attempting to recruit JOC (James O'Connor) and Hunt to fill weaknesses in the squad, then you are a … edited.

I'm going to have a crack at a calm and rational response. This is roughly what I have put together as the timeline based on first hand accounts from the players about when they heard what.

The Reds were never in hunt to retain Harris. I can confirm this because the bloke alluded as such to me himself when I had a quick opportunity to ask late last year. The Reds knew this early on. Once they knew that Harris was going, they 100% should have realised that the depth at 10 had taken a hit and taken steps to try and find a solution.

Apparently they had already locked up Hunt and JOC (James O'Connor) who were probably going to play in the outside backs. Funds were starting to get skinny under the cap, and Thomson/Tui are not even yet signed.

The Reds then made a short sighted mistake. They made the decision to save money on Lucas and sign Tui, Thomson and Paia'ua to strengthen a perceived area of weakness from 2014, the back row, while leaving the halves exposed with fragile depth.

The question they should have asked themselves at the time is this...Out of the two groups (backrowers and 9/10's) would we prefer to lose one to a season ending injury;
Thomson, Gill, Schatz, (given that Browning, Robinson and Quirk were already signed)

Genia, Quade (given that Frisby and Paia'ua would be the options)

At the time I expressed huge concern that the Reds had made a decision based on trying to over-strengthen an one area (particularly with big names and fanfare) at the huge expense of depth in another. I feel gutted that I have been proved right.

There are a lot of players in the Reds squad who I think we could have done without one or two in order to keep Lucas under the cap.
- Tui
- Magnay
- Paia'ua
- Frisby (Gasp, I know)
- Robinson (regrettable but still true)
- Ant Fainga'a (also regrettable but still true)
- One of JOC (James O'Connor) or Hunt

Even if you agree with nothing I've said above, the fact remains that the Reds gambled with their squad balance and have lost spectacularly.

 

[Bobby Sands]

Rohan Saifoloi from Sputhern has spent time in the ITM over in NZ. He would be the best bet.

Never understood why he didn't get a better chance in the QLD setup.

 

[RedsHappy]

I love how you are able to say Lucas was "discarded" without considering that with his experience he very likely commanded, and possibly asked for a contract which no team could afford to pay a player who would potentially not even make the 23 if all are fit.

How much is he on in France? Would he have stayed here for around $100,000 a season? Because that's really all the reds could afford to offer him. Between JOC (James O'Connor), Hunt and Quade, his two most played positions were well covered by players who were perceived to be in the first choice starting 15 and rightly not expected to drop out of that due to lack of form.

That leaves injuries as the only way for Lucas to make the team.

How can you honestly afford to pay significant money for that player

How many successful teams have quality back up at 10 when they already have an experienced 10?

And how many of those quality back ups don't command a starting spot in another position?

The Reds have made a number of errors in coaching. You just sit here and poke holes in everything from a position of hindsight, without ever considering the realities which they faced when making many of these decisions.

If you honestly believe that in 2014, that you would have prioritised retaining Lucas and Harris, by logic of retaining cover in one of your most stable positions, versus attempting to recruit JOC (James O'Connor) and Hunt to fill weaknesses in the squad, then you are a …(edited)

Thanks for the kind (anonymous) words TWAS.

Let me deal with your points, in no particular order.

1. Successful teams not having (or needing) quality back-ups at 10 when already having an experienced 10?

Just as one particular example: check the Crusaders' web site. They're quite a good team, yes? They list as their squad 10s: Dan Carter, Colin Slade and Tom Taylor, and as I recall all have been needed and indeed used in the last two seasons and all have shown their value to the team as genuine 10s. I wonder where they would have landed in recent years with just DC and a complete rookie as back up?

2. Your speculations re Ben L's $ requirements and motivations are I assume just that. I have been told by people very close to him that he really wanted to stay at the Reds, as he had for so many years beforehand. And why would his latest $ demands suddenly have increased so greatly over his previous salary when he was clearly, overall, happy to remain with the Reds in a 'utility' capacity.

3. How can 'you afford to pay for' a mere back-up 10 utility?

I would have thought the answer to that is now totally obvious: like 9 etc 10 is a highly specialised, but crucial, position. Just assuming you can throw 'highly talented' other backs into that position is utter folly as has been proven with the numerous failed experiment(s) with JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 (Wallabies and Reds) and N Frisby at 10 and then the problems in winning games when these experiments collapse in a heap. So, the point surely is: how can you NOT afford to have a credible 10 as back up if you want to win the S15?

4. Re the 'dealing with squad weaknesses' policy of recruiting JOC (James O'Connor) and KH that is, for you, justifying the decision in 2014 to jettison numerous 'less good' players partly on the grounds that they could not then be afforded.

To this I say: first, there is not a jot of evidence to support the idea that KH is a ready-made or even vaguely credible back up 10 at Super level, not the tiniest jot. The whole KH recruitment call was/is very high-risk, by any standard. Re JOC (James O'Connor), worse, it's arguable that the BIL series in 2013 was lost as result of the manifestly failed decision by Deans to stubbornly play JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 - is yet more evidence needed that this is not in any way the right role for him? So, with these two highly expensive recruits, where still is the _credible_ 2015 back up 10 to QC (Quade Cooper)? An U20 rookie recently from the Broncos? - you can't be serious.

To your point re '2014 realities having to be faced', I will say forever more: to win a S15 you simply must have a credible back up 10 in case of injury or serious player fatigue. That is a reality. You can attain that in many ways, but attain it you must.

Then finally(1) to you point re QC (Quade Cooper)'s stability: unfortunately, QC (Quade Cooper) has since late 2011 not been a 'stable' player in injury terms, he's been anything but. Just adds yet further to the compelling arguments for proper back up to him.

Finally (2): I was never at any time in 2014 excited and effusive re the alleged transformative effect that the likes of JOC (James O'Connor) and KH etc would have upon the Reds' then future 2015 season. I was deeply sceptical this move was in whole or in part a convenient QRU/RG designed mask to cover over, or delusionally avoid, the severe coaching and man-management deficiencies of RG (as a number of us have vocalised here since 2012).

Equally, I know that very few S15 teams have ever been meaningfully transformed in this way via 'new star recruiits' - the Force tried it for years and failed badly with it. What typically works so much better is to retain an excellent coach and build up from there first and foremost, re-energising and re-developing solid and high-potential talent already in the squad and sometimes supplementing same with a few key 'not star but solid and great value-for-money' imports like Potgeither and Braid.

 

[Scrubber2050]

Slipper has not played 10...yet.

Not for a number of years anyway - couldn't be worse than genia or Pickle

 

[Purce]

Couldn't agree more Ruggo, Reds Happy and Hammertime.

There is a lot to be said about Lucas' departure which paints the QRU and Reds recruitment in very bad light. One of either Lucas, Harris(never going to happen) or Lance needed to be kept on the books and used as many NZ teams use their back up 10's learning their trade.

On the topic of possible fly halves to get in.... Michael Hobbs is in the off season in Japan(I believe). Once touted as a future AB numerous injuries felled the poor bugger. Particularly a back which forced him out for a season or two. He would certainly be better than any current back up 10s we have floating around. Wonder if the Reds have looked at him at all. Wonder if he would even want to come back to s15(particularly the reds, even though he has strong ties with Brisbane and the club).

On a side note, I feel sorry for JOC (James O'Connor) now that he will likely be thrust into the playmakers roll. The bloke came back, was told he was only going to play wing for the Reds and Wallabies. Now looks likely to play a large majority of the season at 10, giving him very limited time to have a decent crack on the wing. Shame... as IMO I thought he was one of the worlds best wingers before he was thrown into 10 and lost his marbles.

 

[Gnostic]

No matter how I look at the Reds situation I just cannot believe the board and CEO allowed it to develop. There were those of us here who questioned the appointment and the systems used to achieve the selection.

From early days we wondered what the criteria used was, and Reds fans said to me they hoped that Link would be able to teach RG some successful management systems, because the Force experience was not laudatory.

Ultimately responsibility for the situation the Reds are now in resides with the CEO and the board, as the outcomes mirror those seen at the Force, and were predictable.

 

[RugbyReg]

Does anyone have any theory on why Sam Greene isn't considered? He seemed to be shunned in the NRC and, to me, seems the most likely 10 now but isn't even discussed. I would've thought he was the best 1

 

[wamberal]

No matter how I look at the Reds situation I just cannot believe the board and CEO allowed it to develop.

Ultimately responsibility for the situation the Reds are now in resides with the CEO and the board, as the outcomes mirror those seen at the Force, and were predictable.

There was a fred a while ago touting Carmichael's credentials as a potential CEO' for the ARU.

I pointed out at the time that his lack of a rugby background would count against him. Very difficult for him to win an argument about the coaching staff, or the playing staff, for that matter.

 

[Ruggo]

Yeah, should of stuck to appointing school mates.

 

[Train Without a Station]

RH, I like how you reference an NZ team that doesn't deal with the same realities and constraints as an Australian team.

Colin Slade. Now that would be the same Colin Slade that previously left the Crusaders (before returning) and regularly commands a starting position as a 15 and at times even wing, right?

NZ teams are hardly an example worth referring to when players like Ged Robinson, Scott Fugistaller, Mike Harris, etc. who cannot get a Super Rugby contract in NZ can come here and get one. It shows the depth and lack of opportunity at other provinces in the country.

Now let's look at the Australian teams. Those that live in the same constraints and deal with the same competition.

Waratahs? Foley with Beale as a back up - who starts as a 12. How would the Waratahs have fared in 2014 had Foley been injured? Would you consider Beale a quality 10? I doubt many would. Not many were too enamoured with his test performances there.

Brumbies? To'omua with Leali'ifano as a back up - who starts as 12.

Even Harris at the Rebels who is a back up 10, starts in another position. I've been a huge fan of Harris. But the fact is that 15 is his weakest position due to his lack of pace and 12 is his best position where we have Fainga'a, Tapuai and Kerevi all there also.

Since Hynes retirement, the Reds have had a hole at 15.

Bag JOC (James O'Connor) all you want as a 10, I have never been a huge fan either, but you are removed from reality and ignoring the limitations of Harris (struggles to pass both sides) if you say he is a superior back up 10 to JOC (James O'Connor).

With QC (Quade Cooper) locked up at 10, the Reds needed a 15 that could back up at 10. Not players who were better at 10 than 15.

Yes it's come undone with Quade injured. But with a limited squad size and limited salary you cannot afford to carry these players on a high salary of they are not starters.

It is my understanding that the cap is $4M over 32 players. That works out to $125k per player.

Considering that some starters will get more than double that, that means that the 17 players outside the 15 needed to be collectively below that to accommodate this.

Ben Lucas didn't want to leave. Can you say he was happy to stay for $100,000 or less when he is likely on 3-4 times that in France? He may not have wanted a pay rise. But now, his value to the team has dropped from 2011-2013 when he was a regular starter and member of the 23. In 2015 he wouldn't even make the best 23. At a mean contract value of $125k, with starters likely receiving over 250k, how much can you afford to pay players who will fall outside the best 23?

And it's all well and good to knock the recruitment, but Hunt and JOC (James O'Connor) effectively replaced Harris and Lucas. Considering both have been unavailable for factors beyond the reds control, how can you lay blame for the reds getting to a point where neither were available and Frisby ended up at 10? There's no reason to just naturally assume Lucas and Harris may not have been injured either.

I'm more than willing to point blame at Graham. But to sit here in April 2015 and deride decisions made in July 2014, with all the experience of what has happened in the time between now and then is ludicrous and self righteous.

 

[Gnostic]

TWAS in the Tahs example that would be why they recruited Lance this year. And as a back up 10 Beale is Ok, not ideal by any measure but I must say under Chieka he has been more of a team player than at any other time I can recall in his career. Even the Force have true 10 backups, as do the Rebels though I can't recall who played 10 when Debroczini (sp) was injured but IIRC it wasn't Harris, though he is better than JOC (James O'Connor), who remains an individualistic player.as for the Lilo v To'omua debate I am sure you are familiar with the Brumbies debates amongst the supporters themselves whether Bernie had them around the wrong way. I don't regard To'omua as a particularly good 10, I feel Lilo is better, but what does that matter when they can effectively cover the position. The Tahs, Ponies, Rebels, and Force have ensured that they have coverage for all the key positions, everyone but the Reds. You can choose not to see it, but JOC (James O'Connor) has never been regarded as a 10 except by Deans (and we know all about his selection policies) and Hunt is a rookie in his first year in the sport in senior teems, made worse by the fact he spent the last few years playing aerial ping pong, which in no way remotely prepares him for the collisions and skills required in a passing game. So how we're the Reds remotely covered at 10 in the event of injury to QC (Quade Cooper)?

 

[I like to watch]

The first choice back up for 10 was an under20's player who played League the past 2 years.
Not exactly a stellar plan........

 

[Train Without a Station]

Hunt had played Top 14 as a 10.

He is not a great 10. JOC (James O'Connor) is not a great 10. But both are more experienced 10's at the professional level than Jono Lance is.

Though, this point is hardly relevant. Lance reportedly wanted to go the NSW, is unlikely on significant money or an improvement on his Reds contract. So how is that good management, that it just so happens somebody wants to live where your team is based, for the same money as what they are on?

And most importantly, on what basis is Lance a better back up 10 than anybody. When has he ever played 10 well? Or fucking ever? Would JOC (James O'Connor) and Hunt both be significantly more experience 10s at senior professional level.

Leali'ifano is an excellent back up 10. He would be the best back up 10 in Australian super rugby. He is also a regular starter in another position. Which is exactly my point.

The force do not have high quality back up. They have 2 10s who would likely be bench players at best at any other franchise. And accordingly would receive the appropriate salary to reflect that. Easy to throw more money at your back up 10 when you aren't paying your starting 10 fuck all anyway.

With limited salary to play with, limited squad positions and competition for players, teams have to take risks.

When the Reds won in 2011 it was partially due to no injuries to let players (Horwill, slipper, Fainga'a x2, Cooper, Genia and Ioane all played the majority of the season), and partially due to astute recruitment of players in positions of weakness looking to prove themselves at low cost (Samo and Robinson).

The same could be argued for the Waratahs in 2014. Risks were taken, due to good S & C management and a little luck, these paid off.

Instead of talking this bullshit argument, that it's a recruiting error that a team doesn't have a high quality back up for arguably their best player, and being shocked the performance has declined without him, as if no other team would be impacted if they lost their key player (Look at the Gold Coast Suns without Gary Ablett in 2014) how about we focus on the true deficiencies in the coaching? The lack of ability to construct any meaningful attack with any apparent intent to create opportunities to exploit, the slip in standards showing on the field, the fact that a full time super rugby squad looks so inadequate at time.

 

[Train Without a Station]

And to say the recruitment was poor, and they were filling holes in the back row and creating holes elsewhere ignores the fact that the reds have 8 back rowers on contract:

1. Gill
2. Thomson
3. Schatz
4. Browning
5. Robinson
6. Tui
7. Quirk
8. Lolo

The Waratahs have 7:

1. Hooper
2. Potgeiter
3. Palu
4. Hoiles
5. Gray
6. Holloway
7. McCutcheon

When you consider that they knowingly player Potgeiter at lock despite being a loose forward and again have done that with Dennis this year, merely due to weakness at lock, you could potentially say they also have 8. So hardly very different from the Reds allocation of squat positions.

 

[Breakdown]

I love how you are able to say Lucas was "discarded" without considering that with his experience he very likely commanded, and possibly asked for a contract which no team could afford to pay a player who would potentially not even make the 23 if all are fit.

How much is he on in France? Would he have stayed here for around $100,000 a season? Because that's really all the reds could afford to offer him. Between JOC (James O'Connor), Hunt and Quade, his two most played positions were well covered by players who were perceived to be in the first choice starting 15 and rightly not expected to drop out of that due to lack of form.

That leaves injuries as the only way for Lucas to make the team.

How can you honestly afford to pay significant money for that player

How many successful teams have quality back up at 10 when they already have an experienced 10?

And how many of those quality back ups don't command a starting spot in another position?

The Reds have made a number of errors in coaching. You just sit here and poke holes in everything from a position of hindsight, without ever considering the realities which they faced when making many of these decisions.

If you honestly believe that in 2014, that you would have prioritised retaining Lucas and Harris, by logic of retaining cover in one of your most stable positions, versus attempting to recruit JOC (James O'Connor) and Hunt to fill weaknesses in the squad, then you are a fucking idiot.

Well said Jim Carmichael.

 

[Bobby Sands]

The first choice back up for 10 was an under20's player who played League the past 2 years.
Not exactly a stellar plan....

More to the point, is Duncan injured? Or has Tuttle just been preferred as a flyhalf option? (Over Dalgiesh as well).

We should get his brother back from the Broncos too.

 

[liquor box]

I'm going to have a crack at a calm and rational response. This is roughly what I have put together as the timeline based on first hand accounts from the players about when they heard what.

The Reds were never in hunt to retain Harris. I can confirm this because the bloke alluded as such to me himself when I had a quick opportunity to ask late last year. The Reds knew this early on. Once they knew that Harris was going, they 100% should have realised that the depth at 10 had taken a hit and taken steps to try and find a solution.

Apparently they had already locked up Hunt and JOC (James O'Connor) who were probably going to play in the outside backs. Funds were starting to get skinny under the cap, and Thomson/Tui are not even yet signed.

The Reds then made a short sighted mistake. They made the decision to save money on Lucas and sign Tui, Thomson and Paia'ua to strengthen a perceived area of weakness from 2014, the back row, while leaving the halves exposed with fragile depth.

The question they should have asked themselves at the time is this.Out of the two groups (backrowers and 9/10's) would we prefer to lose one to a season ending injury;
Thomson, Gill, Schatz, (given that Browning, Robinson and Quirk were already signed)

Genia, Quade (given that Frisby and Paia'ua would be the options)

At the time I expressed huge concern that the Reds had made a decision based on trying to over-strengthen an one area (particularly with big names and fanfare) at the huge expense of depth in another. I feel gutted that I have been proved right.

There are a lot of players in the Reds squad who I think we could have done without one or two in order to keep Lucas under the cap.
- Tui
- Magnay
- Paia'ua
- Frisby (Gasp, I know)
- Robinson (regrettable but still true)
- Ant Fainga'a (also regrettable but still true)
- One of JOC (James O'Connor) or Hunt

Even if you agree with nothing I've said above, the fact remains that the Reds gambled with their squad balance and have lost spectacularly.

In hindsight JOC (James O'Connor) and HUNT have not provided decent back up abilities at 10 but at the time of team planning I think it is reasonable to expect that they both would provide backup.

HIndsight is a great thing but surely a French premiership winning flyhalf and former Wallaby flyhalf should be a suitable backup.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

^^^ Doesn't that just reinforce the perception of low standards in French Provincial rugby and the poor decision by Dingo to select The Brand at 10.

There are plenty on here who believe that Former Wallabies plying their trade in French Rugby should not be selected for the Wallabies no matter what accolades they may earn in that competition, and the discussion about Bieber Boy at flyhalf during the 2013 Lions series is well documented.

 

[Train Without a Station]

We are talking about injury back ups.

If people are willing to talk of Jono Lance, who does not even play 10 at easts as a back up, then top 14 and test experience is adequate.

People are saying it was a poor decision not to prioritise signing Harris and Lucas as 10 cover.Considering in our previous 10 crisis, Harris proved inadequate there and Lucas was injured a lot of it, I think people have short memories anyway.

The reds issues have not been solely at flyhalf. That has just been the position that's been left exposed due to all the issues around (effectiveness of forwards, service from 9 and running options outside).

 

[USARugger]

More to the point, is Duncan injured? Or has Tuttle just been preferred as a flyhalf option? (Over Dalgiesh as well).

We should get his brother back from the Broncos too.

Think someone mentioned a few pages back that Duncan is currently with the U-20s.