Rebels 2016

[Highlander35]

Jack, Harris, Hodge and Hawkins are the proper 10 options, supposedly Asquith is capable as well. With Harris and likely Ellison injured, I'd expect to see Hodge play in the centers, and Jack retain his spot, with Hawkins probably coming back into the 23.

 

[pjm]

Long term options or strategy I mean. I don't think Debreczini is up for it.

 

[Highlander35]

Jack's the great white hope unfortunately. Hegarty let go at the end of last Season, and no genuine fly half has been blooded in either NRC season, with Bip Meehan and Lloyd Johansen being used when Jack didn't play 80 minutes. I don't know too much about the academy or development boys, Pat Teota was used as a playmaking utility by the Aus U20 Barbarians instead of as a 10, and Billy Gray was playing fullback for the U20s this year before being dropped to the bench instead of playing 10.

Don't think Hodge is a long term 10, more a Center or Fullback, Harris has never been consistently good enough at 10, I've not seen enough of Hawkins or Asquith to make a judgement.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Didn't Asquith play 15 for the Aus NRC Barbarians in NZ last year? If he was the one I remember, I think it would probably be an improvement straight away for him to replace Jonah.

 

[Highlander35]

Crawford might get the berth on basis of seniority. Or Hodge if Ellison is fit (no chance) or one of the wingers or Sione is preferred in the centers.

 

[OneOrThree]

What is going on with the condition of the pitch? Two weeks running there has been some major earthworks after each scrum. I recall the 2008 Wallabies vs BaaBass at Wembley, where we lost two front rowers in the one scrum after the pitch tore up excessively. I do note the new engagement protocols are in place but that is potentially season ending stuff out there. Has there been any comment from the Rebels management?

 

[Dumbledore]

I'm not willing to throw the towel in on Debreczeni just yet. He was always going to be a long-term project, his excellent first NRC - playing for essentially a Super Rugby team against semi-pros - raised some pretty unrealistic expectations. He's had some injury issues which seem to have shaken his confidence in taking the ball to the line, his biggest strength IMO, but he's also not been helped by Meehan's delivery. I know a lot of people like him, but he's constantly throwing loopy back-shoulder balls that are putting Debreczeni on the back foot - not exactly a great spot to be given neither he nor Inman seem to be able to pass the ball further than five metres in either direction.

Next week I'd be looking at

9. Stirzaker
10. Debreczeni
11. English
12. Hodge
13. Inman
14. Shipperly
15. Crawford

I'd give Placid another crack at fullback if he's fit, but that shoulder hasn't been right for abut three weeks now. He had a bit of a shocker against the Highlanders, but he was excellent against the Sunwolves. Still very much finding his feet at this level.

 

[mst]

^^^^^^

What is going on with the condition of the pitch? Two weeks running there has been some major earthworks after each scrum. I recall the 2008 Wallabies vs BaaBass at Wembley, where we lost two front rowers in the one scrum after the pitch tore up excessively. I do note the new engagement protocols are in place but that is potentially season ending stuff out there. Has there been any comment from the Rebels management?

^Could this be a contributing factor to the soft tissue injuries?

 

[pjm]

Stirzaker has to start. Not only because of Meehan's shocking game but because Rebels are devoid of leadership on the field. Being a 'lead by example' Captain doesn't cut it in this day and age, especially when you have a quiet game like he did. Rebels need direct verbal leadership.

Inman would be another one to lose. He has no ball skills at all and has embarrassingly little effect in collisions for his size.

 

[Dumbledore]

^^^^^^
^Could this be a contributing factor to the soft tissue injuries?

Seeing as only one of those injuries occurred at home I highly doubt it. Two bad hamstring, and two quad, injuries is weird. Obviously we have no idea what's going on, but it's funny how those sort of injuries happen with far less regularity to teams with really top S&C guys.

@pjm, totally agree about leadership. It's a big issue.

 

[swingpass]

I'm not willing to throw the towel in on Debreczeni just yet. He was always going to be a long-term project, his excellent first NRC - playing for essentially a Super Rugby team against semi-pros - raised some pretty unrealistic expectations. He's had some injury issues which seem to have shaken his confidence in taking the ball to the line, his biggest strength IMO, but he's also not been helped by Meehan's delivery. I know a lot of people like him, but he's constantly throwing loopy back-shoulder balls that are putting Debreczeni on the back foot - not exactly a great spot to be given neither he nor Inman seem to be able to pass the ball further than five metres in either direction.

Next week I'd be looking at

9. Stirzaker
10. Debreczeni
11. English Crawford
13. Hodge Tuipolotu
12. Inman
14. Shipperly
15. Crawford Hodge

I'd give Placid another crack at fullback if he's fit, but that shoulder hasn't been right for abut three weeks now. He had a bit of a shocker against the Highlanders, but he was excellent against the Sunwolves. Still very much finding his feet at this level.

English is unfortunately on crutches, Ellison unlikely, Placid is gone for a few weeks also i'd suggest. it would not surprise me if your backline is the one trotted out TT might go for Matsushima on a wing though in place of English. I agree that the problem is really no second playmaker and JD now very down on cofidence

 

[Dumbledore]

Something else that's been bugging me, why is the work off the ball so poor? The kick-chase is terrible, they're poor getting back to return kicks, they don't work hard enough on attack, the support runners are virtually non-existent. And that sort of stuff isn't talent based. Not everyone is going to be able to throw a thirty metre ball on the run, but work off the ball is purely down to coaching and effort. So what's the deal? Are they too tired to do it, are they not being coached properly, or are they mentally shutting down when things aren't going their way?

 

[mst]

I'm not willing to throw the towel in on Debreczeni just yet. He was always going to be a long-term project, his excellent first NRC - playing for essentially a Super Rugby team against semi-pros - raised some pretty unrealistic expectations. He's had some injury issues which seem to have shaken his confidence in taking the ball to the line, his biggest strength IMO, but he's also not been helped by Meehan's delivery. I know a lot of people like him, but he's constantly throwing loopy back-shoulder balls that are putting Debreczeni on the back foot - not exactly a great spot to be given neither he nor Inman seem to be able to pass the ball further than five metres in either direction.

Next week I'd be looking at

9. Stirzaker
10. Debreczeni
11. English
12. Hodge
13. Inman
14. Shipperly
15. Crawford

I'd give Placid another crack at fullback if he's fit, but that shoulder hasn't been right for abut three weeks now. He had a bit of a shocker against the Highlanders, but he was excellent against the Sunwolves. Still very much finding his feet at this level.

IMHO the more you persist with Debreczei the longer this will continue. He just hasn't improved and appears he wont any further. For a big unit he does not pose a threat at the line, has no real pace, has poor ball handling skills and suffers under a little pressure. His kicking is suspect and that is his selling point.

Happy to be corrected, but most of the above description applies for most of the latter half of last season and this seasons. Does this sound like a 10 you want?

The obsessive nature we have in Australia to promote a player relentlessly irrespective of performance tends to blind us and cause more steady but less "flashy" players like Mike Harris to end up benched and choosing to move on. The reality of it is if you look at player like Foley (Tahs) for example, he is solid and simple and provides a platform for a talented backline to run off. Rebels have a talented running back line that is not greeting the right service.

 

[Dumbledore]

English is unfortunately on crutches, Ellison unlikely, Placid is gone for a few weeks also i'd suggest. it would not surprise me if your backline is the one trotted out TT might go for Matsushima on a wing though in place of English. I agree that the problem is really no second playmaker and JD now very down on cofidence

Christ. What did English do? That probably does mean Tuipolotu to 13, Crawford to the wing, and Hodge to fullback.

I think Matsushima is in for the Veainu treatment. Sealed his fate when he tried a couple of things against the Bulls and got ragdolled into touch each time. TT isn't going to like a guy who chances his arm on the outside, when he could pick a plodder who'll step back inside - take the contact - and recycle.

 

[Highlander35]

Once we pick the starters (Hodge, Shippers, Tuipulotu, Inman, Crawford, Jack, Little Red), then take into account the injuries (Harris, Sefa, Engo, Placid, Ellison), that leaves us with 5 fit backs for 3 spots, Matsushima, Snowden, Bip, Asquith and Hawkins.

Bip would take the spot ahead of Snowden, Hawkins has been given the nod over the other 2 in 4 games, which leaves us with 1 spot between Asquith and Matsushima. Tough choice. Debutant or someone who doesn't fit the TT mold.

 

[swingpass]

Christ. What did English do? That probably does mean Tuipolotu to 13, Crawford to the wing, and Hodge to fullback.

I think Matsushima is in for the Veainu treatment. Sealed his fate when he tried a couple of things against the Bulls and got ragdolled into touch each time. TT isn't going to like a guy who chances his arm on the outside, when he could pick a plodder who'll step back inside - take the contact - and recycle.

i assume he has redone his gammy knee, collateral ligament or worse. he was banging his hand on the ground in utter despair when it happened about a third of the way into the second half, when the Rebs kicked their penalty. yes i fear for Matushima as well.

 

[Dumbledore]

IMHO the more you persist with Debreczei the longer this will continue. He just hasn't improved and appears he wont any further. For a big unit he does not pose a threat at the line, has no real pace, has poor ball handling skills and suffers under a little pressure. His kicking is suspect and that is his selling point.

Happy to be corrected, but most of the above description applies for most of the latter half of last season and this seasons. Does this sound like a 10 you want?

The obsessive nature we have in Australia to promote a player relentlessly irrespective of performance tends to blind us and cause more steady but less "flashy" players like Mike Harris to end up benched and choosing to move on. The reality of it is if you look at player like Foley (Tahs) for example, he is solid and simple and provides a platform for a talented backline to run off. Rebels have a talented running back line that is not greeting the right service.

Mike Harris isn't good. If he's your argument you're going to need to do a bit better.

I think you're bang on about the latter half of last season - the NRC in particular. No coincidence that it coincides with a couple of concussions, a shoulder injury, and losing Stirzaker to injury. When Debreczeni's been at his best he takes the ball to the line extremely well, and throws nice little touch passes to guys working off him. Currently he looks gun-shy, is being put on the back foot by his scrumhalf, and doesn't seem to have many options so he just shovels it on. His kicking and passing is incredibly annoying though, I have no idea why it hasn't been coached up to a more acceptable standard.

You're going to be disappointed if you think sports teams, and Australian rugby in particular, are going to stop swinging for the fences with high-upside prospects. The reward is too great not to, especially in Australia where we have such a shallow talent pool. Coaches have enormous egos, they're going to look at a guy like Debreczeni, see a Larkham/Honniball hybrid and back themselves to get that out of him.

 

[swingpass]

Once we pick the starters (Hodge, Shippers, Tuipulotu, Inman, Crawford, Jack, Little Red), then take into account the injuries (Harris, Sefa, Engo, Placid, Ellison), that leaves us with 5 fit backs for 3 spots, Matsushima, Snowden, Bip, Asquith and Hawkins.

Bip would take the spot ahead of Snowden, Hawkins has been given the nod over the other 2 in 4 games, which leaves us with 1 spot between Asquith and Matsushima. Tough choice. Debutant or someone who doesn't fit the TT mold.

i wonder how bad is Hawkins back injury ?

 

[mst]

Mike Harris isn't good. If he's your argument you're going to need to do a bit better.

I think you're bang on about the latter half of last season - the NRC in particular. No coincidence that it coincides with a couple of concussions, a shoulder injury, and losing Stirzaker to injury. When Debreczeni's been at his best he takes the ball to the line extremely well, and throws nice little touch passes to guys working off him. Currently he looks gun-shy, is being put on the back foot by his scrumhalf, and doesn't seem to have many options so he just shovels it on. His kicking and passing is incredibly annoying though, I have no idea why it hasn't been coached up to a more acceptable standard.

You're going to be disappointed if you think sports teams, and Australian rugby in particular, are going to stop swinging for the fences with high-upside prospects. The reward is too great not to, especially in Australia where we have such a shallow talent pool. Coaches have enormous egos, they're going to look at a guy like Debreczeni, see a Larkham/Honniball hybrid and back themselves to get that out of him.

Unsurprisingly you missed the point.

No, its not my argument, but an example. So like now with Harris injured, and long term after his departure, what options beyond JD do you have? Who is a playmaker at the Rebels?

In consecutive years Hergarty left and Harris is departing; both have been picked up by other teams because they do have some playmaker abilities.

JD has been given preference and game time, and has gone from being touted as a Wallabies possibility to struggling to produce at Super Rugby level.

If I wanted to argue the point I would refer you the comparative stats so far this year where JD is on close to on par with Elton Jantjies and just above Jake McIntyre.

 

[Dumbledore]

Unsurprisingly you missed the point.

No, its not my argument, but an example. So like now with Harris injured, and long term after his departure, what options beyond JD do you have? Who is a playmaker at the Rebels?

In consecutive years Hergarty left and Harris is departing; both have been picked up by other teams because they do have some playmaker abilities.

JD has been given preference and game time, and has gone from being touted as a Wallabies possibility to struggling to produce at Super Rugby level.

If I wanted to argue the point I would refer you the comparative stats so far this year where JD is on close to on par with Elton Jantjies and just above Jake McIntyre.

If your problem is with the Rebels recruitment and retention of players you're not going to find much of an argument from me. I think they should have done more to keep Hegarty around. He's getting the rose-tinted glasses treatment now he's left, but at the very least he was still a good backup player who would have kept pushing Debreczeni to improve. Competition is a good thing. In saying that, they have attempted to bring other flyhalves in. They almost had Foley, one of your solid and simple players, before he bitched out at the last second. And they had a real crack at bringing Ihaia West over the ditch after he tore up the NPC a couple of seasons ago.

Debreczeni has been given preference and game time because he has a much higher ceiling than Hegarty, that's what poorly performing clubs do. You invest in talented youth and give them time to grow and develop. Debreczeni was prematurely touted as a Wallaby off the back of a dominant NRC season - as discussed above. He was hyped far beyond what his actual abilities were, and are. He's a work in progress who needs better coaching than he's currently receiving. He does seem to have regressed somewhat this season, although as I mentioned earlier I think it's as much due to injury related loss of confidence and poor play inside him than any sudden capitulation in ability.

And seriously, if you've got stats that can accurately quantify flyhalf performance I'd love to see them. Hell I'd pay to see them, would be an incredible resource.