ER If you look a page or 2 ago we got completely lost in the maths on this one so dont hold me to it but next years seniors are in a smaller " talent" intake due to their intake starting on Jan 1 and finishing on June 30 born 2002. prep starting at a July 1 2002 intake for a full year.
Mathematically both 2018 and 2019 should be affected with 2019 being the most affected.2020 will be back to full year seniors and below.
Even though it was a half year some schools still had the same size intake.it was just easier to get in.but mathmatically talent had to be spread yeh ? Some schools didnt manage to fill all spots and some did ( read big advantage for schools with lower school fees. )
ATAR over 3 years will be as popular as repeating Grade 12 ..not very.
Comprendez ?
If we’re attempting to frame all this in a Mathematical context - I don’t believe it is as one dimensional , or as linear , in the way it has been explained
Far from it
If anything - you could make an argument , with good support of facts, that the transition has led to a greater accumulation and consolidation of talent
Firstly , the main thing everyone has to remember , is that School Years may run June to July , Age Group's for Rugby still run in the year you are born in ( except for under age teams in AIC of course where they play Grade )
Secondly, for the Class of 2019 , the assumption , of increased choice due to a number of January to June births being held back , that Schools with the lower fee base got bigger enrolments and therefore ( in a singular dimension ) more talent - is flawed. It is worth noting that this Class of 2019 were all 10 -11 years old in
2012 and just about to make the jump into the first year of middle school ( Grade 7 ) Consider the back end of the GFC and the Resources tail that was wagging the dog - a big assed $AUD for families that were exposed to service retail or export industries , and , in SEQ , how this may have impacted educational institutions attitudes to fee concessions. When addressing the issue of "talent" in this Class of 2019 - at least two thirds , IE :6 out of 9 ( and it's more like 7 ) , have all played ball , across a number of sports - but Rugby in particular, to build and consolidate talent . It is undeniable . Inarguable. And they have done so because they have had spare capacity - not just because of some overanxious parents who chose to hold their boys back to give them an advantage ( which from a Rugby impact in denial of "talent" to the Age Group had no impact anyway ) - but also because of some big assed, game changing, global factors in the post GFC / short term Resources boom of the 2010 to 2012 world - that drove "the two tiered" economy ( that was buzz speak at the time )
Thirdly , if you accept that 6 to 7 of the 9 member GPS Schools have been building and augmenting the Class of 2019 for some time , on a year on year basis - to varying degrees - but most on greater levels that they have ever done ( on a historical basis ) , then by extension , you would also have to accept that the Class of 2019 has been a Class of accumulation and consolidation from as far and wide as The Northern Territory , to North QLD to Central QLD , to Sunshine Coast , Gold Coast , Country NSW , South Australia and Western Australia - and , locally , on a ( cost ) like for like basis from School A to School B . Some have done better in their choice and ongoing development of talent compared to others to date - and I guess the final burden of proof will be on the outcomes of where it all ends up come the end of 2019.
But to suggest the Class of 2019 is a weak year because they were the first year impacted by the transition - is far from reality.
In simple summary - in Rugby terms , you lost none of the year group that stayed behind a year in the class room , and if anything , the lower overall numbers in this year group probably has led to a greater than normal level of talent accumulation .
I'm not saying it absolutely will - but there is a reasonable chance that in time , from solely a Rugby perspective , people might look back on the Class of 2019 and 2020 in the same way they look back at 2014 and 2015 and who and what came from those Classes
