NSW AAGPS 2024

[CasualObserver]

Growing more true as time passes, to see Italy above us in the world ranking as we slump to 9th was truely heartbreaking.

I unsuccessfully tried to decipher the rankings calculations (world ranking calculator link). From my basic estimates if Georgia win on Saturday they may jump us, especially if they win by 15,

Can someone that is good at maths have a look at this?

 

[War Chest]

What problems has this created for other schools or clubs that are greater than the ones they have created for themselves?
If we didn't have these elite competitions - would there be an elite competition at all?

The answer to underperformance isn't to lower the performance of those that are doing it well!

I don't understand why Australian rugby community always wants to point its finger at where we are strong.

Why does a schools comp need to be elite? The elite competition for kids should be the state championships.

The finger is pointed at where "we" are strong is because those schools and competitions are so much stronger in this day and age at the expense of other clubs and schools who are preyed upon for talent. It wasn't this way for a long long time and Australian rugby did pretty well, not any more though.

 

[sundayeightpm]

I unsuccessfully tried to decipher the rankings calculations (world ranking calculator link). From my basic estimates if Georgia win on Saturday they may jump us, especially if they win by 15,

Can someone that is good at maths have a look at this?

It's pretty simple actually ;-) (the more complicated part is doing the calculations for all of the other games - as this will also affect how the table looks after the weekend) . We won't lose to Georgia BTW.

The World Rugby Rankings are calculated using a points exchange system, where teams gain or lose points based on their performance in matches relative to the strength of their opponents. The system is designed to ensure that a team's ranking points reflect its relative strength over time. Here's an overview of the algorithm and factors involved:

Key Components of the Algorithm

1. Match Result: The outcome of the match (win, loss, or draw) is the primary factor.
2. Home Advantage: Home teams are given a 3-point advantage.
3. Ranking Points: The ranking points of both teams before the match are considered.
4. Match Importance: Different matches have different weightings. For example, World Cup matches have a higher weighting than other international matches.
5. Points Exchange: The number of points exchanged depends on the difference in ranking points between the two teams and the match result.

Example Calculation

Suppose Team A (ranked 1st with 90 points) plays Team B (ranked 5th with 80 points) at Team A's home ground. Here's a simplified step-by-step calculation:

1. Pre-Match Rating Difference:
- Adjust for home advantage: Team A gets +3 points.
- New ratings: Team A = 93, Team B = 80.
- Rating difference = 93 - 80 = 13 points.

2. Match Result:
- If Team A wins, they gain fewer points (expected outcome).
- If Team B wins, they gain more points (unexpected outcome).

3. Match Weighting:
- Suppose it's a regular test match (weighting = 1.0).

4. Points Exchange:
- If Team A wins: Team A gains points based on a lower exchange rate.
- If Team B wins: Team B gains points based on a higher exchange rate.
- For a draw: Team B gains points, Team A loses points, reflecting the unexpected draw.

5. Final Update:
- Adjust both teams' points based on the calculated exchange.

(thanks to ChatGPT ;-).

So, if Georgia were to beat us by 5-10 points, this is the standing -

- Australia: 76.70 points
- Georgia: 76.36 points

If however, Georgina win by 10-15 pints - you are correct, it looks like this:

- Australia: 76.20 points.
- Georgia: 76.86 points.